트럼프 현상으로 본 미국 고립주의의 본질과 재현 가능성 전망 = The Nature of U.S. Isolationism and its Prospect in US Foreign Policy Viewed in the Trump Phenomenon

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

“America First” foreign policy is not so much different from announcing abandonment of America's international role. The recent survey done by a polling agency reveals the American public tends to be in favor of isolationism. They argue disengagement in terms of foreign policy and withdrawal from TPP. Such sentiment is a result of widespread frustration and anger toward increasing inequality among the social classes, which allegedly has been rising in hand in hand with the spread of Neo-Liberalism. It seems major US presidential candidates have successfully taken the advantage of such movement. The recent rise in public sentiment favoring the isolationism largely resembles the period between 1935 and 1941, when it was predominant. Nevertheless, it is not likely that isolationism would enjoy its renaissance because the current hype of isolationism is mainly attributable to election tactics by the presidential candidates. In a sense, isolationism would have some impacts on U.S. foreign policy, by increasing the pressure for its protective trade policies and more burden-sharing request to its allies, but this trend would not deter U.S. from assuming its role as a hegemon.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 글은 최근 미국 내 부상하고 있는 고립주의 여론이 국제주의와 어떠한 관계가 있으며, 그 실현가능성과 우리나라 외교정책에 미치는 영향을검토하기 위한 것이다. ‘미국 우선주의 정책’은 미국의 국제적 역할 포기를뜻하는 고립주의 선언과 다름이 없다. 최근, 미국의 한 여론조사기관은 미국민들의 고립주의 성향이 상당히 높다는 결과를 제시하고 있다. 이는 그동안 신자유주의의 확산으로 누적된 불평등에 따른 국민적 불만이 폭발한것이며, 이러한 민심의 변화에 대선후보들이 편승하고 있는 것으로 보인다. 미국의 여론은 외교안보적으로는 해외분쟁 불개입을, 경제적으로는 환태평양경제동반자협정 불참을 요구하고 있다. 이런 추세는 역사적으로 미국 내 고립주의가 주류를 이루던 1935년~1941년 시기와 비슷하다. 미 대선후보들의 선동적인 행동으로 인해 미국의 고립주의가 부활한 것처럼 보이지만, 미국은 패권국가로서의 국제적 역할을 결코 포기하지 않을 것이며, 대신, 보호무역 강화, 방위비 분담강요 등 부분적인 고립주의 성향을보일 가능성은 있다고 예상된다.

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