UN 안보리 결의안 제2270호의 대북제재가 북한경제에 미치는 영향 분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Responding to recent military provocations of North Korea, UN Security Council passes Resolution 2270 on March 2, 2016, which includes provisions more stronger than those of existing resolutions in terms of depth and width. The empirical analysis on the economic effect of Resolution 2270 is important, for it provides the meaningful reference to evaluate the change of North Korea’s stance in the near future and set up policy alternatives toward such a change. North Korea’s import of capital goods, equipment parts, fuel and raw materials seems to play the role of another input in the production process. Then it is reasonable to think the extended production function in North Korea, that includes North Korea’s import as another factor of production besides labor and capital elements. The extended production function model is used in this paper to empirically analyze the economic effect of the new resolution. Specifically this study investigates the effect on North Korea’s real GDP when the provision to prohibit North Korea’s export of coal, iron and iron ore causes the decrease in export revenue to be used for the payment of North Korea’s import.
North Korea’s annual data ranging from 1980 to 2014 is used for the empirical analysis. Findings are as follows: first, when North Korea’s export of coal, iron and iron ore is prohibited, export revenue is decreased by about 150 million dollars, and the consequent decrease in North Korea’s import may result in about 7.6% drop in North Korea’s real GDP. Secondly, the decrease of cash income through the shut down of the Gaeseoung industrial complex is about 120 million dollars. Consequently it may cause about 0.6 drop in North Korea’s real GDP. Thirdly, even though the provision to prohibit the exportation of workers from North Korea is not included in the new resolution, it is likely that such a provision may be additionally included in the resolution if North Korea continues to commit military provocations. It is reported that North Korea may get about 300~500 million dollars annually from the exportation of workers. Then the prohibition of the exportation of North Korean workers may reduce North Korea’s real GDP by about 1.5~2.5%.
All empirical findings about the economic effect of sanctions are just about the short run effect. Eventually the reduction in North Korea’s overall production through the decrease in North Korea’s import may affect the capacity of reproduction in the North Korean economy. In the long run, it damages the functioning of the North Korean economy seriously. It is expected that North Korea may respond to economic sanctions of the new resolution through the mobilization of domestic resources. Considering the current situation of the North Korean economy, without the institutionalization of North Korea’s market such as institutional guarantees of user rights or proprietary rights on production assets, it could not succeed in the efficient mobilization of domestic resources enough to overcome the economic downturn caused by Resolution 2270. In this respect, economic sanctions on Resolution 2270 may affect the economic transformation of the North Korean economy.

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