대북 무역제재가 북한경제에 미치는 효과 분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The structure of North Korea's external trade reveals the characteristics of the trade pattern in underdeveloped countries：exporting mineral resources and goods produced on a commission basis, and importing industrial products, intermediate goods, machineries, equipment and raw material for economic recovery. As the trade between North Korea and China has expanded rapidly since the mid-2000s, such a backward structure of external trade in North Korea has deepened. Recently, with regard to North Korea's additional nuclear test, the international community has asked and emphasized China's role to dissuade North Korea from doing such a test. Considering that North Korea heavily relies on China for its external trade, China's active participation on the trade sanctions against North Korea may affect the North Korean economy significantly. Then, this paper purposes to analyze the economic effect of the trade sanctions against North Korea empirically.
Because North Korea's import largely consists of strategic products and materials needed for it's economic recovery, this study focuses on the economic effect caused by the trade sanctions on North Korea's import. Using the transfer function model, the dynamic effect on the North Korean economy has been investigated. The result shows that if the international community including China takes the trade sanctions reducing North Korea's import by 30%, North Korea's economic growth rate may decrease by 2.364% during t period when the trade sanctions are imposed, by 2.733% from t period to (t+1) period, by 2.790% from t period to (t+2) period, and by 2.799% from t period to (t+3) period, respectively. This result shows that the trade sanctions against North Korea has a significant effect on the North Korea's economy, and China's active participation on sanctions will put pressure on North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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