한국 e-비즈니스 기업의 가치 결정요인에 관한 연구 = (An) empirical analysis on value-relevance of financial and nonfinancial information : the case of Korean e-business firms

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Debate on bubble has continued since the KOSDAQ market crash a year ago.Still opinions are divided between one that bubble has not disappeared and another one that market has turned normal.It is clear that market values of e-business firms are higher than those of traditional firms with comparable annual sales and total assets. PER of e-business firms is twice that of traditional firms since the crash in second half of 2000.These are some examples that point to the differences between e-business firms and traditional firms.From these observations, one can conclude that there exists intrinsic values embedded in e-business firms that cannot be explained by book value and net income alone.Future value of an e-business firm is not sufficiently explainable by the likes of balance sheet, profit and loss statement, and cash flow statement.
For the purposes of determining intrinsic value of e-business firms, 84 e-business firms and 84 traditional firms(non e-business firms) were selected. After those companies under court receivership and workout program were excluded from the data base, 84 non e-business firms that are not high-tech oriented were selected through random sampling from 448 companies currently listed in the Korea Stock Exchange.
Regression analysis showed evidences that there exists identifiable difference between e-business firms and non e-business firms.Book value and net income data were employed for regression model for the two groups of companies.R-square of non e-business firms was 92% while that of e-business firms was 71%.This result substantiates the argument that there exists intrinsic value that cannot be explained by fundamental information alone in e-business firms. What then is causing the observed disparity of 21% points between the two groups?
Web traffic was the answer to explain existence of the intrinsic values associated with e-business firms. For the empirical test, we employed both technical analysis and correlation analysis to identify explanatory variables. These variables were then used to run regression analysis.
In early days of KOSDAQ hysteria, people jumped into investing in KOSDAQ shares without questions.Subsequently, KOSDAQ crashed not before long as Internet shares failed to turn web traffic into sales and profit.However, web traffic has turned out to be an important value determinant for the case of e-business firms.Among 58 KOSADQ-listed companies, those having web traffic tended to show significantly higher market values than those without web traffic at all.
We performed another set of regression analysis by considering both fundamental information and web traffic. The first group of 84 firms includes with unique visitors less than 30,000 per moth on the average, presuming that there were no useful web data offered. In the second group, 45 companies(among the 84 selected firms) with more than 30,000 unique visitors per month on the average were included in the sample.
In the sample of 84 firms, R-square was 0.705 when web traffic was excluded as a specific variable, then it was improved to 0.72~0.74 when web traffic was included.Regression coefficients were positive. Variables such as number of unique visitors, number of visits, web page view, and site duration revealed statistical significance using T-test.
The second group, the 45 firms with more than 30,000 unique visitors, showed R-square of 0.74~0.75, with positive coefficient.Statistical inter-relationship was not evident. Companies among KOSPI did not show inter-relationship factor, while companies listed in KOSDAQ and trading in OTC market showed 5% inter-relationship factor.Particularly, 29 companies with web-traffic and profits showed R-square of 0.98, and 1% inter-relationship factor, respectively.
Research on web traffic as a determining factor of corporate value is actively pursued in the US.Some academics in finance have argued that book value and profit are sufficient to determine value of Internet companies.Others have argued that inclusion of web traffic improves reliability.It can be said to a noteworthy progress that web traffic is a significant determinant of value of Korean e-business.
Contrary to our expectation, explanatory variables such as number of patent and R&D budget, number of direct investment overseas, and export sale did not yield satisfactory results in determining value of e-business companies. Instead, the larger the number of patent and direct investment overseas, the larger value of e-business companies declined.Patents did not affect favorably on sales and operating income. Direct investment overseas also did not lead to improvement in sales and operating income due to the fact that such investment is probably insignificant.
Relationship between life cycle and corporate value could not be explained by number of months since listing on the stock market and market capitalization.Inter-relationship factor and correlation coefficient were larger for those companies with longer history than others.
It is author's wish that this research might be useful in M&A transactions among e-business companies.Many M&A attempts failed due to the fact that sellers prefer applying future value while buyers prefer present value.This leads to delay in industry restructuring.
This research attempts to convey that future value should be included as a determining factor for corporate valuation, in addition to present value.The research has shown that web traffic is indeed an important determinant along with fundamental information in valuation.A profitable e-business company listed on KOSDAQ having large web traffic volume will have a stronger chance of success in overseas expansion, and thereby will have very high growth potential in future value.
Also, it is the author'swish that this research will provide a new tool for valuation to stock analysts in financial institutions.
Non-financial factors have been accounted for in firm valuation in recent years by banks, credit guarantee funds, and venture capital investment companies.Itshould be warned that there is a possibility of over-valuating an e-business company when non-financial factors are included. Variables such as number of patent, number of direct overseas investment, export sales, and R&D budget in relation to sales have close correlations with fundamental financial data. When these factors are included along with book value and net income, it is highly likely to over-valuate an e-business company.Excluding non-financial factors completely and relying only on fundamental financial data, however, may not accurately reflect on determining value.Web traffic volume should be treated as a specific explanatory variable in the valuation process.
The current research has its shortfalls. First, insufficient data has limited the empirical research to year 2000.Data going back 3~5 years would yield more accurate results regarding determinants of valuation.Quarterly data were also not available since most Korean firms disclose financial data on annual basis.
Second, only 45 out of84 e-business companies provided web traffic volume from www.internetmatrix.com.Segmentation in terms of market type(KOSPI-KOSDAQ-OTC) and industry type was not possible.
Third, separation of e-business companies having off-line channel from the rest of e-business companies was not possible.Consequently, distinction of determinants in respective companies was not possible.
Fourth, insufficient data on number of patents held by e-business companies led to a contrary result, showing that it does not have significant effect on valuation.Number of patent on business model, should it have been available, might have yielded the anticipated results.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 = 1
• 제1절 문제 제기 및 연구목적 = 1
• 제2절 연구 방법 및 구성 = 3
• 제2장 e-비즈니스 기업 가치평가의 이론적 배경과 선행 문헌 연구 = 5
• 제1절 e-비즈니스 기업 정의 = 5
• 1. 구경제와 신경제 차이 = 5
• 2. e-비즈니스 정의 및 기업 분류 = 9
• 1) e-비즈니스 정의 = 9
• 2) e-비즈니스 기업 분류 = 11
• 제2절 선행 문헌 연구 = 13
• 1. e-비즈니스 기업 가치 결정요인 = 13
• 1) 재무요인 분석 = 14
• 2) 비재무요인 분석 = 15
• 3) 기술요인 분석 = 18
• 4) 인적자원 분석 = 19
• 2. e-비즈니스 기업 가치평가법 = 20
• 1) 상대가치(Relative value) 평가법 = 20
• 2) 현금흐름할인(discounted cash flow:DCF) = 22
• 3) 실물옵션(Real option) = 24
• 3. 본 연구와 선행 연구와의 차이 = 26
• 제3장 통계자료 정리와 분석 모형 정형화 = 27
• 제1절 통계자료 정리 = 27
• 1. 연구 대상 = 27
• 2. 연구자료 및 통계자료 조정 = 28
• 1) 연구자료 = 28
• 2) 통계자료 조정 = 29
• 3. 관련 변수 정리 = 31
• 제2절 실증 모형 정형화와 추정 방법 = 33
• 1. 실증 모형 정형화 = 33
• 2. 모형의 추정방법 = 35
• 제4장 e-비즈니스 기업의 가치 결정요인에관한실증분석결과 = 37
• 제1절 e-비즈니스 기업과 비 e-비즈니스 기업 비교 = 37
• 1. 기술적 통계량 분석 = 37
• 2. 상관관계 분석 = 39
• 3. 회귀 분석 = 42
• 제2절 설명변수간 상관관계와 다중공선성 측정 = 43
• 제3절 e-비즈니스 기업 가치결정 요인 분석 = 46
• 1. 웹교통량 요인 = 46
• 1) 기술적 통계량 분석 = 46
• 2) 상관관계 분석 = 48
• 3) 회귀 분석 = 50
• 2. 기술력 요인 = 56
• 1) 기술적 통계량 분석 = 56
• 2) 상관관계 분석 = 57
• 3) 회귀 분석 = 58
• 3. 국제화 요인 = 60
• 1) 기술적 통계량 분석 = 60
• 2) 상관관계 분석 = 61
• 3) 회귀 분석 = 63
• 4. 기업수명(life cycle) 요인 = 65
• 1) 기술적 통계량 분석 = 65
• 2) 상관관계 분석 = 66
• 3) 회귀 분석 = 67
• 5. 기타 요인 = 69
• 1) 안정성 요인 = 69
• 2) 국내 투자 요인 = 70
• 3) 성장성 요인 = 70
• 제4절 웹교통량 네트워크 효과 측정 = 71
• 제5장 결론 = 75
• 참고자료 = 79
• 부록 = 85
• Abstract = 101