법정근로시간 단축에 따른 경제적 효과분석 = The Effect of the Reduction of Legal Working Hours on the Korean Economy

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this research is to pursue an efficient discussion of the issues related to the reduction of legal working hours (five-day workweek) through a dynamic analysis of its probable effects on the Korean economy. For this, the research lays out a macroeconomic model explaining the recent domestic economy trends, and based on the model, it analyzes the changes that will occur in the economy over the next five years If the reduction of legal working hours is Implemented.
The analysis demonstrates that the curtailment of legal working hours will bring about a reduction of real working time and a decrease m productivity as viewed from a long-term perspective. At the initial introductory stage of the system, a temporary expansion in domestic demand due to a rise in consumption and productivity enhancement may occur. However, export competitiveness is expected to weaken due to wage hikes, commodity prices and export unit prices, leading to a subsequent reduction in export volume. These factors are expected to result in an inevitable decline In the nation's GDP in the long run. If the current legal working hours are shortened to 40 from 44, GDP in the first year may rise by 0.48 %, but over time, the production increase effect will gradually wear off. It IS estimated from the third year, Koreas GDP will likely fall to a level lower than the pre-Implementation period, resulting in an estimated 1.62 % production decline in the fifth year.
This research also investigates the effect of reduced working hours on the industrial composition ratio. Comparing the industrial structure before and after the systems introduction, the weight of the service industry is projected to increase, thanks to expanded leisure time. On the other hand, the construction sector is expected to decline. This is expected to be attributed to a deepening contraction of fixed investment, caused by a decrease m domestic production over time. Other contributing factors to the anticipated decline include the inter-industry migration of labor following the rise in service consumption and the stimulation of the leisure industry. Meanwhile, no significant change is forecast in the weight of other industries including the manufacturing sector, which is expected to decline m line with the GDP decrease.
Should the introduction of this system be unavoidable in order to enhance the quality of workers' lives despite the projected mid and long-term production declines, the government should complement the system to lessen the shock that the reduced legal working hours will have on the economy. If annual leave, monthly days off and 12 public holidays were eliminated simultaneously with the Implementation of the system, the considerable shock on GDP would be mitigated significantly. If the legal working hours were reduced on a step-by-step basis while abolishing annual leave, monthly days off and public holidays at the same time, the effect of the production decrease would be reduced markedly.
It is hoped that interested parties, including the government, would utilize this research for future revision of the Labor Standard Law and in its consideration of changes m the present annual/monthly leave and legal holiday system.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론
• 제2장 관련연구
• 제3장 선진국의 예
• 제4장 거시경제모형
• 제5장 정책시뮬레이션
• 제6장 결론
• 참고문헌
• 부록
• Abstract