A Reexamination of South Korea's Aggregate Import Demand Function: The Bounds Test Analysis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper uses a robust estimation method referred to as the unrestricted error correction model - the bounds test analysis to re-analyze the long-term relationships between the demand for imports and it’s determinants for South Korea over the period 1980-2000. Our results show that the volume of imports, income, and relative prices are all cointegrated. The estimated long-run (short-run) elasticities of import demand with respect to income and relative price are 1.86 (0.86) and -0.2 (-0.05), respectively. The major implication of our study is that neither monetary nor fiscal policies may be used as instruments to maintain the trade balance in South Korea’s favor during this sample period.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 "“Determinants of Import Demand in Thailand" 12 : 73-83, 1997

2 "“A Cointegration Analysis of the Malaysian Import Demand Function: Reassessment From the Bounds Test" 9 : 293-296, 2002

3 "Using Cointegration Analysis in Econometric Modelling" Prentice Hall/Harvester Wheatsheaf 1995

4 "The Power of Cointegration Tests Journal of Econometrics" 389-402,

5 "The Determinants of Import Demand in Trinidad and Tobago" applied eco (applied eco): 303-13, 19881967-1984

6 "Structural Stability and the Estimation of International Import Price Elasticities in World Trade" 695-711, 1968

7 "Structural Change in Import Demand Behavior, the Korean Experience: A Reexamination," 19 : 187-193, 1997187-193

8 "Structural Change in Import Demand Behavior Journal of Policy Modeling" 223-227, 1993

9 "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control" 231-54, 1988

10 "Spurious Regressions in Econometrics Journal of Econometrics" 111-20, 1974

11 "Some Estimates of the Price and Income Elasticities of Import Demand for Three Caribbean Countries" applied eco (applied eco): 1045-1048, 1994

12 "Some Comparisons of Tests for A Shift in the Slope of A Multivariate Linear Time Series Model Journal of Econometrics" 297-318, 1975

13 "Modeling the U.S. Demand for Imports Through Cointegration and Error Correction" 18 : 1-48, 1996

14 "Maximum Likelihod Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics" 169-210, 1990

15 "Journal of Policy Modeling" 291-98, 1994

16 "Foreign Trade Behavior in Thailand Stable or Unstable" 36-45,

17 "Estimation of the Structure and Elasticities of Mexican Imports in the Period 1961-1979 Journal of Development Economics" 297-311, 1982

18 "Estimation of Long-Run Coefficients in Error Correction Models Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics" 345-50, 1989

19 "Determinants of Nepalese Imports" 11 : 347-354, 2000

20 "Demand for Greek Imports Using Multivariate Cointegration Techniques" 30 : 1483-1492, 1998

21 "Cyclical Factors in Import Demand Behavior: The Korean Experience" 19 : 323-331, 1997

22 "Cointegration Approach to Estimate the Long-Run Trade Elasticities in LDCs" 12 (12): 89-96, 1998

23 "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationship" 16 : 289-326, 2001

24 "An Examination of the Traditional Aggregate Import Demand Function for Saudi Arabia" applied eco (applied eco): 909-915, 1994

25 "An Empirical Examination of the Disaggregated Import Demand of Korea - the Case of Information Technology Products" 1 : 237-244, 2000

26 "An Analysis of Transformations Journal of the Royal Statistical Society" 211-243, 1964

27 "An Aggregate Import Demand Function for Malaysia: A Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis," 1 : 43-57, 2000

28 "An Aggregate Import Demand Function for Bangladesh: A Cointegration Approach" 31 : 465-472, 1999

29 "Aggregate Imports and Expenditure Components in Malaysia: A Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis" 17 (17): 257-269, 2000

30 "Aggregate Imports and Expenditure Component in the UK: An Empirical Analysis," 28 : 1119-1125, 1996

31 "A Reexamination of Japans Aggregate Import Demand Function An Application of the Engle and Granger Two-Step Procedure" 41-55, 1992

32 "A Note on Trade Elasticities in Asian Countries" XV (XV): 221-237, 2001