라틴아메리카 지역에서 대통령 지지율의 거시경제적 결정요인에 대한 연구 = A Study on Macroeconomic Determinants of Presidential Popularity in Latin America

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables on Presidential approval ratings (popularity) in Latin America based on economic voting theory. In this study, the panel linear model is set as the basic equation for its analysis. In this analysis, the popularity of 18 presidents in Latin America using Latinbarometro data was employed as a dependent variable. GDP growth rate, GDP per capita growth rate, unemployment rate, consumer price rate, government expenditure, and misery index (unemployment rate + consumer price rate) were used as explanatory variables. The results of this study were confirmed to be consistent with the results of previous studies. In Latin America, the president’s approval ratings have proven to be closely linked to economic growth. As GDP and GDP per capita increase, the popularity of the president increases. Government spending is also closely related to the approval rating of the president in Latin America. In contrast, the unemployment rate has been proven to have a negative impact on the popularity of the president in Latin America. One of the important results identified in this study is that the effect of consumer prices on the approval rating of the president is minimal in Latin America. The results are consistent with previous studies. Finally, this study examined the possibility of the misery index as a comprehensive economic indicator that determines the popularity of the president. As a result, it can be confirmed that the misery index has a sufficient possibility as a representative economic variable affecting the approval rating of the president. The results have shown that the misery index and the popularity of the president are very closely related.

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