북한 붕괴시 다국적군 파병 가능성과 한국의 외교적 대응 = Possibility of Multi-National Forces Dispatch and Foreign Policy Implication for South Korea in times of North Korea Collapse.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

One cannot think of any possible change in the international politics of East Asia without considering North Korea, which is surely a decisive variable determining stability and change in the regional security. This paper examines the regime crisis and possible alteration in the nature of North Korean regime. Therefore, a very starting point that this paper is concerned is possible collapse of North Korea and possibility of intervention by multinational forces, should any dramatic events occur.
For the first part of the paper argues that, in forecasting North Korean collapse, the definition of collapse should be presented with more precise definition. When setting scenarios for the collapse of North Korea, its collapse scenario must be multidimensional rather than linear dimensional Not only the collapse of North Korea occurs due to a single factor but also it will not proceed in a single dimension. Distinguishing implosion and explosion tends to oversimplify and, moreover, ignore externality which accounts for foreign policies by surrounding states (the Us, Japan, Russia and China) toward North Korea. Considering externality implies that the Korean problem is influenced by the international community and especially North Koreas survival is much more determined by what types of foreign policy are exerted by the surrounding states in the region.
The second part of the paper entails the actual scenarios of North Korea and examines possibilities of intervention by multi-national forces in the courses of the collapse. Collapse can be seen in the forms of socio-economic, political regime and system collapse. The socio-economic collapse entails the breakdown of food-rationing, surveillance and production systems. In it, the existing social stratification and class tension will be apparent. The collapse of political regime defines power struggles, military-coup and civil wars. The final phase of collapse is the demise of the system. Once the socio-economic and political foundation become obsolete, new fungible groups must come in to replace the old one. This is where the intervention of international community may be visible and gradual unification. may come into reality.
Should North Korea collapse, the surrounding states (the Us, Japan, China and Russia) may intervene by claiming that their intervention is to secure the regional and international stability as well as their own national security. Each state may justify its decision based on prior-bilateral agreements that are formed either by North or by South Korea. The complex web of alliance pacts around the Korean peninsula may enable them to participate in the advent of the collapse. The US may intervene with the Time Phased Force Deployment under the Operation Plan 5027. The US may do so through its policy of engagement and enlargement. China, self-advocate to be a regional stabilizer, may intervene under the China-North Korea Pact, formed in 1961, which agrees to provide any necessary assistance, including military means, should any engaging party falls into invasion by other states. Japan can play its role under the new US-Japan New Guide Line which explicitly allows Japan to engage in the Non-combat Evacuation Operation (NEO) if any crisis occur in the region. As seen in the case of Somalia, Bosnia and East-Timor recently, the role of the United Nation may play decisively in implementing its peace keeping mission.
The last part of the paper reviews the German experience, especially the foreign policies of the Kohl government in the phase of the German unification, which effectively dealt with and prevented any foreign intervention including the former Soviet Union. From this, the paper conclude with implications for the Korean foreign policy readiness: Korea should tighten its current alliance with the US and at the same time should be able to secure its unification initiatives independent of external influences. If not, Korea must at least minimize foreign intervention so as to maximize its interest and lead its national destiny as a unitary actor.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 북한의 체제변동 시나리오
• Ⅲ. 국제적 군사 개입의 조건:양자관계의 틀
• Ⅳ. 국제적 군사개입의 조건: 국제연합의 틀
• Ⅴ. 국제적 군시 개입의 회피 가능성: 독일 통일의 경우를 중심으로
• Ⅵ. 결론: 한국의 외교적 대응방향
• Summary