여천공단지역의 유해 대기 오염물질에 대한 확률론적 위해도 분석 = Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Hazardous Air Pollutants in Yeochon Industrial Complex

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The study centers on a probabilistic risk assessment for the inhalation of volatile organic compounds(VOCs) and toxic metals in Yeochon industrial complex. From the assessment, the 50th∼95th percentile cancer risks by VOCs for men and women are estimated to be ??∼??, ??∼??, respectively. Those percentile risks are higher than a de minimis risk of even ??. About 4% and 1% of the 95th and 50th percentile risks for both men and women come from the only human carcinogen, benzene, while about 85% and 96% come from a probable human carcinogen, 1,3-butadiene. The 50th∼95th percentile cancer risks by toxic metals for men and women are estimated to be ??∼ ??, ??∼??, respectively. Even 95th percentile risk is lower than a de minimis risk of 10-4. About 5% and 1% of the 95th and 50th percentile risks by VOCs and toxic metals for both men and women are due to heavy metals, respectively.
A comparison of the probabilistic risk estimates with point risk estimate shows that the probabilistic analysis can provide a more complete assessment of risk and more useful information to risk manager and the public. However, uncertainty remains and improved Korean probabilistic density functions(PDF) are needed for factors such as airborne concentrations, inhalation rate, exposure frequencies, and cancer potency factors.