기후경제 모형의 불확실성 분석 방법 비교분석 및 FUND 모형 응용 = A Review on Probabilistic Climate-economy Models and an Application of FUND

국문 초록 (Abstract)

에너지 및 기후변화 정책을 수립하는 데 있어 경제모형은 중요한 역할을 한다. 자원의 효율적인 사용에 관한 경제이론을 바탕으로 공공의 정책을 평가하고 나아가야 할 방향을 제시할 수 있기 때문이다. 개인의 의사결정뿐 아니라 공공의 의사결정에서 불확실성은 중요한 영향을 미친다. 최근 학계를 중심으로 에너지 및 기후변화 문제와 관련하여 불확실성이 모형의 결과에 미치는 영향이 강조되고 있으며, 몇몇 모형들에서는 불확실성을 명시적으로 반영하고 있다. 그러나 국내에서 사용하고 있는 에너지 및 기후경제 모형의 경우 대체로 결정론적인 분석틀을 사용하고 있어 에너지 및 기후변화 문제가 갖고 있는 불확실성을 반영하지 못한다는 문제점이 있다. 발생 가능한 다양한 경우에 대해서도 견고한 의사결정의 중요성이 강조되고 있다는 측면에서도 불확실성 분석의 필요성은 더욱 커지고 있다. 이에 이 논문은 불확실성 분석에 관한 이론을 검토하고, 이론에 근거해 불확실성과 관련한 에너지 및 기후경제 모형의 최근 연구 결과를 분석하며, 국내 모형들이 불확실성 분석을 수행할 수 있는 방법을 제안한다. 또한 수치 모형 응용으로서 FUND 모형을 불확실성을 반영해 수정한 후 국내 기후변화 피해비용을 분석하였다. 이 논문은 에너지 및 기후경제 모형과 관련하여 불확실성 분석 관련 내용을 종합적으로 검토하고 향후 국내 모형에서 적용할 수 있는 방안을 제시한다는 점에서 기여하는 바가 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Uncertainty is central to energy and climate policy. A growing number of literature show that almost all components of energy and climate models are, to some extent, uncertain and that the effect of uncertainty on the model outputs, in turn policy recommendations, is significantly large. Most existing energy and climate-economy models developed and used in Korea, however, do not take uncertainty into account explicitly. Rather, many models conduct a deterministic analysis or do a simple (limited) sensitivity analysis. In order to help social planners to make more robust decisions (across various plausible situations) on energy and climate change issues, an uncertainty analysis should be conducted. As a first step, this paper reviews the theory of decision making under uncertainty and the method for addressing uncertainty of existing probabilistic energy and climate-economy models. In addition, the paper proposes a strategy to apply an uncertainty analysis to energy and climate-economy models used in Korea. Applying the uncertainty analysis techniques, this paper revises the FUND model and investigates the impacts of climate change in Korea.

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