평일과 주말의 특성이 결합된 연휴전 평일에 대한 단기 전력수요예측

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The accuracy of load forecast is very important from the viewpoint of economical power system operation. In general, the weekdays’ load demand pattern has the continuous time series characteristics. Therefore, the conventional methods expose stable performance for weekdays. In case of special days or weekends, the load demand pattern has the discontinuous time series characteristics, so forecasting error is relatively high. Especially, weekdays near the thanksgiving day and lunar new year"s day have the mixed load profile characteristics of both weekdays and weekends. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast these days by using the existing algorithms. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecast result considering the characteristics of weekdays and weekends. The proposed method was tested with these days during last decades, which shows that the suggested method considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 1. 서론
• 2. 본론
• 3. 사례 연구
• 4. 결론
• References

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 이충식, "신경회로망과 회귀모형을 이용한 특수일 부하 처리 기법" 한국조명.전기설비학회 16 (16): 98-103, 2002

2 장길수, "Short-term load forecasting for the holidays using fuzzy linear regression method" IEEE 20 (20): 96-101, 200502

3 D.H. Hong, "Fuzzy linear regression analysis for fuzzy input-output data using shape preserving operations" 122 : 513-526, 2001

4 Oh-Sung Kwon, "Coefficient selection technique of exponential smoothing model for weekday load forecasting" 295-296, 2010

5 Hyeong-Woo Lim, "A scheme for short-term load forecast considering hourly load profile characteristics of weekdays and weekend" 71-72, 2011

6 Hyeong-Woo Lim, "A scheme for short-term load forecast applying the trend of load variation rate" 69-70, 2011