중장기 건설투자 예측모형

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Tresearch focuses on the forecasting of construction investments and demands in the construction materials in 1997-2005, using a economertric model of the construction economy. For the long-term forecasting of the construction investments and their material inputs, we develop a system of equations which consists of single identity equation and 13 behavior equations, using GLS and cointegration approaches. The ratio of the construction investment to the GNP is expected to be 20.07%∼21.06 % in 1.997-2000 and 19.04%∼19.93% in 2001-2005. The average growth rate of the construction investment is estimated as 4.75%-5.07%, depending on the assumptions on the economic growth and the price inflation. The demands of the cement and the remicon increase annually by 4.30%∼4.35% and 4.95%∼5.28% respectively, and the average growth rate of the iron bar demand is expected to be 4.85%∼5.17%. Because the production capacities of the cement and the remicon have been expanded annually to 11.4%∼17.2% in 1990-1994, the problem of "excessive supply" is primary concerned rather than their shortage in the long term.