Economic Conditions and Male First Marriage in Northeast China, 1749-1909

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper shows that economic conditions, as reflected in grain prices, helped determine rates of bachelorhood in northeast China from 1749 to 1909. For many rural populations, high grain prices are a useful measure of economic conditions because they typically indicate a poor harvest, leading to increased economic pressure and reduced consumption. Our analysis of 30,000 unmarried adult mates in rural Liaodong from 1749-1909 indicate that while current grain prices did not affect marriage chances, prior grain prices twenty years previous did: boys born when grain prices were high were more likely to never marry than boys born under normal conditions. Results are consistent with an explanation in which increased incidence of female neglect or possibly infanticide when times were bad led to worsened sex imbalances in the marriage market two decades later.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 吳承明, "用粮價變動硏究淸代的市場整合" 2 : 88-94, 1996

2 定宜庄, "淸代八旗駐防制 度硏究" 古籍出版社 1992

3 曾毅, "我國近年來出生性別比升高原因及其后果分析" 19 (19): 283-302, 1993

4 姜濤, "中國近代人口史" 浙江人民出版社 1993

5 楚軍紅, "中國農村産前性別選擇的決定因素分析" 27 (27): 259-281, 2001

6 Easterlin, Richard, "What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in the age structure" 15 (15): 397-432, 1978

7 Parrish, William L., "Village and family in contemporary China" University of Chicago Press 1978

8 Hajnal, John, "Two Kinds of Preindustrial Household Formation System" 8 : 449-494, 1982

9 Lee, Ronald, "The Population History of England, 1574-1871:A Reconstruction" Cambridge University Press 356-401, 1981

10 Crossley, Pamela, "The Manchus" Blackwell 1997

11 Elliott, Mark, "The Manchu Way" Stanford University Press

12 Bergstrom, Theodore, "The Family, the Market, and the State in Ageing Societies" Oxford University Press 46-63, 1994

13 Telford, Ted A, "Survey of social demographic data in Chinese genealogies" 7 : 118-148, 1986

14 Liu, Ts’ui-jung, "Studies and Essays in Commemoration of the Golden Jubilee of the Academia Sinica" Academic Sinica 849-870, 1978

15 Davis, Kingsley, "Social Structure and Fertility:An Analytic Framework" 4 : 211-235, 1956

16 Skinner, William G., "Sichuan’s population in the nineteenth century: Lessons from disaggregated data" 8 (8): 1-79, 1987

17 Sommer, Matthew H., "Sex, Law, and Society in Late Imperial China" Stanford University Press 2000

18 Lavely, William, "Revising the Malthusian Narrative:The Comparative Study of Population Dynamics in Late Imperial China" 57 (57): 714-748, 1998

19 Long, J. Scott, "Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables" Sage Publications 1997

20 Perry, Elizabeth, "Rebels and revolutionaries in North China, 1845-1945" Stanford University Press 1980

21 Campbell, Cameron, "Population and Economy:From Hunger to Modern Economic Growth" Oxford University Press 371-420, 2000

22 Telford, Ted A, "Patching the holes in Chinese genealogies: Mortality in the lineage populations of Tongcheng county, 1300-1880" 11 : 116-136, 1990

23 Lee, James, "One Quarter of Humanity:Malthusian Mythology and Chinese Reality, 1700-2000" Harvard University Press 2000

24 Harrell, Stevan J., "On the Holes in Chinese Genealogies" 8 (8): 53-79, 1987

25 Wolf, Arthur, "Marriage and adoption in China, 1845-1945" Stanford University Press 1945

26 Macfarlane, Alan, "Marriage and Love in England:Modes of Reproduction, 1300-1840" Basil Blackwell 1840

27 Wang Feng, "Marital fertility control among the Qing nobility:implications for two types of preventive check" 49 (49): 383-400, 1995

28 Chao Kang, "Man and Land in Chinese History" Stanford University Press 1986

29 Zhao Zhongwei, "Long-term mortality patterns in Chinese history: evidence from a recorded clan population" 51 : 117-128, 1994

30 Campbell, Cameron, "Living Standards in Nineteenth Century Liaoning:Evidence from Demographic Outcomes"

31 Tawney, R. H., "Land and Labor in China" Beacon Press 1932

32 Lee, James, "Infant and Child Mortality Among the Late Imperial Chinese Nobility:Implications for Two Kinds of Positive Check" 48 : 395-411, 1994

33 Tuljapurkar, Shripad, "High sex ratios in China’s future" 267 : 874-876, 1995

34 Liu, Ts’ui-jung, "Hanley and Wolf" 13-61, 1985

35 Lee, James, "Fate and Fortune in Rural China: Social Organization and Population Behavior in Liaoning, 1774-1873" Cambridge University Press 1873

36 Harrell, Stevan J., "Family and Population in East Asian History" Stanford University Press 81-109, 1985

37 Allison, Paul, "Event History Analysis:Regression for Longitudinal Event Data" Sage Publications 1984

38 山口一男, "Event History Analysis" Sage Publications 1991

39 Campbell, Cameron, "Economic and household constraints on male first marriage in northeast China, 1789-1909"

40 Whyte, Martin King, "Dating, mating, and marriage" Aldine de Gruyter 1990

41 Telford, Ted A, "Covariates of men’s age at first marriage:The historical demography of Chinese lineages" 46 : 19-35, 1992

42 Park Chai Bin, "Consequences of son preference in a low-fertility society: Imbalance of the sex ratio at birth in Korea" 21 (21): 59-84, 1995

43 Lee, James, "Chinese History in Economic Perspective" University of California Press 145-176, 1992

44 Liu, Ts’ui-jung, "Chinese Historical Microdemography" University of California Press 121-140, 1900

45 Liu, Ts’ui-jung, "Chinese Historical Microdemography" University of California Press 94-120, 1995

46 Harrell, Stevan J., "Chinese Historical Microdemography" University of California Press 1-20, 1995

47 Wang Feng, "Changes in Chinese Marriage Patterns during the Twentieth Century" IUSSP 337-352, 1993

48 Galloway, Patrick R., "Basic patterns in annual variation in fertility, nuptiality, mortality, and prices in pre-industrial Europe" 42 (42): 275-303, 1988

49 Campbell, Cameron, "A Death in the Family:Household Structure and Mortality in Rural Liaoning, Life-event and Time-series Analysis, 1792-1867" 1 : 297-328, 1996