한국의 출산격차 영향요인 실증분석-희망자녀수와 현실자녀수의 차이를 중심으로- = An Analysis of ‘Fertility Gap’ in Korea: Focusing on the Difference between Real and Desired Children Numbers

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study is designed to estimate the value of the factors contributing to ‘Fertility Gap(FG)’, the difference between desired and real children numbers for an individual. The frame of analysis lies on the assumption that for many people the real number of children is not the same as the desired number, leading to low fertility rate in Korea. The data are drawn from the 4th wave of National Survey of Tax and Benefit(NaSTaB), conducted by the Korea Institute of Public Finance in 2011. The target populations are the 2,009 couples: wives with the capability of becoming pregnant, ranging from 20 to 39 years of age, and their husbands.
As a result of analysis, FG vanishes under the condition that the first fertility interval is getting shorter or household-income is increasing. The positive ‘concept of governmental fertility encouragement policies’ also helps reduce FG. However, if ‘savings to household-income ratio’ or ‘private education expenditure per child’ ascends, the couples are hard to escape the trap of FG. Especially, it is confirmed that the effect of awareness of the fertility grants provided by their local governments is minute for those who earn large household-income.
The result presents the direction of fertility encouragement policy needs to be changed to the first child priority policy rather than multi-children priority policy since the first pregnancy can function as a threshold of fertility. And it seems to be more reasonable to offer the fertility grants, based on the household-income. Furthermore, it suggests that authorities are not supposed to limit the scope of fertility encouragement policy only to promoting pregnancy and providing child care system. It is also imperative that the couples’ satisfaction over policies be managed more attentively. It is attributed to the fact that the burden of private education expenditure for children and the anxiety toward later life are powerful deterrent factors in realizing their desired children numbers in Korea.

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