Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter : Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

<P>Plain Language Summary Rapid Arctic warming events disrupt mid-latitude weather patterns and oftentimes produce extreme deviations from normal weather conditions. The atmospheric origins of these Arctic warming events have been identified as developing in the troposphere and the stratosphere. Using historical observations, we have found that the frequency of tropospheric warming events has increased through the recent decades, while the stratospheric events have not. We have also found that tropospheric events develop twice as fast as stratospheric events and are therefore less predictable. With observations of historically-low Arctic sea ice extent occurring alongside the increase of tropospheric warming events, computer simulations provided evidence that the two phenomena are likely linked. Along with observational evidence for enhanced transport of tropical energy helping fuel these Arctic tropospheric warming events, these results suggest that future mid-latitude weather is likely to undergo an increase to extreme, unseasonal weather patterns that are inherently less predictable.</P>