조직학습과 다각화 = Organizational Learning and Diversification - A Dynamic Analysis of Diversification Decision, 1988~1997

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 ‘기업이 언제 다각화를 할까’라는 질문과 ‘어떤 기업이 다각화를 할까’ 라는 두 가지 유사해 보이는 질문들의 근본적 차이에 대한 인식에서 출발한다. 이 두 질문 중, 본 논문은 전자에 초점을 맞추어 기업의 다각화 의사결정을 동태적 관점에서 분석한다. 기존의 다각화 연구들은 이론상으로 ‘기업이 언제 다각화를 할까’라는 동태적 질문을 던진 경우에도 방법론적으로 횡단 연구를 시도하거나, 또는 연구모형 설정에서 시간의 흐름에 따라 변하지 않는 정태적 변수들에 초점을 맞춤으로써 기업의 전략적 행동의 동태성에 대한 적절한 분석을 제시하지 못한 경우가 많았다. 따라서 최근 일부 다각화 연구들은 전통적 연구들의 이런 정태성의 한계를 극복하기 위해 동태적 접근법을 사용하기 시작하였다. 이런 맥락에서 본 연구는 기업이 수시로 변화하는 환경에 역동적으로 대응하여 그 행동을 수정하고 적응 시켜나가는 전략적 의사결정의 프로세스를 정확하게 설명하기 위해서는 방법론적으로 동태적 현상을 계량적으로 분석해낼 수 있는 종단적 분석방법론이 사용되어야 하는 것은 물론이고, 이론적으로도 기업의 역동적 전략 프로세스를 정확하게
파악할 수 있는 논리적 기반이 필요하다고 보았다. 본 연구에서는 환경과 조직간의 역동적 상호작용 프로세스에 초점을 맞추고 있는 조직학습 이론을 적극 활용하여, 환경으로부터의 시그널이 기업의 다각화 의사결정에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 연구한다. 본 연구모형에서는 기업 자신의 과거 행동에 대한 환경으로부터의 강화 시그널로서의 성과 피드백과 다각화 전략의 정당성에 대한 환경으로부터의 시그널이 다각화 의사결정에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 또한 본 논문에서는 각 기업이 환경으로부터의 성과 피드백에 반응하여 다각화 여부를 결정하는 정도는 기업의 지위와 다각화 전략의 정당성 시그널에 따라 다를 것이라고 예측한다. 우리나라 30대 재벌그룹이 1988년에서 1997년까지 수행한 모든 다각화에 대한 이벤트 빈도 분석의 결과, 본 연구에서 제시한 가설들이 모두 지지되었다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The current paper examines the question of ‘when’, rather than ‘which’, firms would diversify. Many existing studies raised research questions in a dynamic term by asking ‘when firms diversify’, but eventually ended up statically testing ‘which firms diversify’, either by relying on cross‐sectional analysis or by focusing on static variables that do not vary with time. However, recent studies in strategic management have started to explore the dynamic aspects of strategic actions, which may make up for the limits of existing diversification studies in near future. Along this line of inquiry, the current study attempts to propose theoretical and methodological bases for the dynamic analysis of diversification decisions by theoretically making sense of and methodologically testing the question of ‘when firms would diversify’ directly. Since firms make strategic decisions in dynamic ways by constantly adjusting their responses according to signals from changing environments, we argue that diversification studies also must employ not only longitudinal methodologies, but also proper theories that can vividly highlight dynamic aspects of strategic processes. For a dynamic analysis of diversification in terms of theory, the current study draws on organizational learning theory which suggests that organizations dynamically adjust their decisions and behaviors by reflecting feedbacks and signals from environments. The organizational learning literature treats an organization as a
dynamic and strategic actor which constantly learns and evolves through interactions with its environments.
The organization learning literature maintains that when an organization faces an environment similar with earlier environments which it previously encountered, it tends to respond to it by resorting to the routines and behaviors it learned through the earlier environmental interactions. If its earlier response had received positive feedbacks from the environments, it would respond to the similar environment by reusing the same response. Otherwise, it would explore new types of responses to the environment. That is, in the organizational learning literature, an organization is assumed to be a dynamic actor which constantly responds to signals from changing environments either by exploiting previously learned behaviors or by exploring new behaviors. Since environmental feedbacks change with time, environments are likely to affect organizational choices and behaviors differently by sending varying feedback signals at each time point.
In this regard, the current study focuses on effects of feedback signals that the focal firm receives from environments at each time point in explaining its strategic choice of whethe or not to diversify. We examines effects of two different types of feedback signals from environments; 1) reinforcement signals that the focal firm receives through performance feedbacks from environments to its own past behaviors, 2) legitimacy signals that the focal firm receives from other firms’ diversification behaviors. The empirical part of the current study examines effects of these two types of environmental signals on the focal firm’s diversification choices at each time point.
The first type of environmental signal that the focal firm receives from performance feedbacks to its own past behaviors is theoretically based on the reinforcement argument of Skinnerian behavioral psychology. Reinforcement theory submits that a certain behavior is learned and repeated only when it receives positive feedback–i.e. reinforcement–from environments. Thus, we predict that when an organization produces a high performance which can be regarded as a positive reinforcement signal, it is likely to repeat its existing behaviors and routines. In contrast, when an organization suffers from a low performance which can be regarded as a negative feedback signal, it is likely to explore new behaviors and routines.
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