산사태 발생 예측을 위한 최적 강우 한계선 개발 = Development of Optimum Rainfall Threshold to Predict of Rainfall-induced Landslides Occurrence

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Most of landslide have been taken place during rainy season (June-September) by typhoon and local rainfall in Korea which cause a considerable damage to properties and human injury. The main triggering factor of these landslides is an intense rainfall so that analysis of landslide-triggering rainfall is essential. In this study, 218 landslide occurrence data from 1999 to 2013 were collected. The rainfall data were also collected using the previous rainfall data from the Korea Meteorological Administration. The landslide-triggering rainfall was estimated using the collected landslide data and rainfall data. In addition, quantile regression analysis was used to estimate the rainfall threshold from 2% to 90%. The ROC method was applied to evaluate quantitatively the proposed rainfall threshold. From these results, we proposed an optimal rainfall threshold, which can provide minimum a false or a missed alarms. The rainfall threshold developed in this study can predict and prevent the occurrence of landslides.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

우기 시(6-9월)에 태풍 및 집중강우로 인해 발생하는 산사태는 많은 재산 및 인명피해를 초래한다. 이러한 산사태의 주요원인은 집중강우로서 유발 강우량에 대한 분석이 필수적으로 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 1999년부터 2013년까지 발생한 218개의 산사태 발생자료를 수집하였다. 그리고 기상청의 과거 강우자료를 이용하여 강우량 자료를 수집하였다. 수집된 산사태 발생자료와 강우량 자료를 분석하여 산사태 유발 강우량을 산정하였다. 뿐만 아니라 통계적 기법인 분위수 회귀분석을 통해 2%부터 90%까지의 강우 한계선을 산정하였다. 또한 제안된 분위수별 강우 한계선과 ROC 기법을 이용하여 최소의 False 또는 Missed alarm을 제공하는 최적 강우 한계선을 제안하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 강우 한계선을 통해 산사태 발생을 예측 및 예방할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 요지
• 1. 서론
• 2. 방법론
• 3. 최적 강우 한계선 개발
• 4. 결론
• 감사의 글
• References

참고문헌 (Reference)

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