성향점수분석 방법을 활용한 Head Start 프로그램의 장기적 소득증대 효과 분석 = Long-Term Effects of the Head Start Participation on Adulthood Outcomes: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구의 목적은 미국 Head Start의 장기적 소득증대 효과를 분석함으로써, 저소득 가정 아동에 대한 조기개입의 중요성을 살펴보는 것이다. 미국의 Head Start는 빈곤과의 전쟁 시기에 빈곤의 대물림을 막기 위한 목적으로 도입된 프로그램임에도 불구하고, 그동안 프로그램의 효과성을 분석한 연구들은 대부분 인지발달과 학업 성취에 대한 중단기 효과를 검토하는데 집중되어 왔다. 이렇듯, Head Start 연구에서 장기적인 소득 증대 효과에 대한 연구가 활발하지 못했던 것은 방법론적인 한계에 기인한 측면이 많았는데, 본 연구는 성향점수분석(Propensity Score Matching Analysis)을 활용하여 선행연구의 한계를 극복하고, 오랫동안 연구의 사각지대로 남아 있던 Head Start의 장기효과, 특히 성인기의 교육 및 소득증대 효과를 분석하였다. 분석 자료로는 미국 Panel Study of Income Dynamics(PSID)의 1970년 부터 2005년까지의 자료를 활용하였다. 최종분석에는 19세~35세인 성인 남녀 1,765명이 포함되었으며, Head Start 참여 여부에 따라 4개의 집단으로 나눈 뒤, 성향점수분석 방법을 활용하여 각 집단의 교육 및 경제적 성취를 비교 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 1년 이상 Head Start에 참여한 아동의 경우, 아무런 프로그램에도 참여하지 않은 아동에 비해 높은 교육 성취도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 소득증대 효과와 관련해서는 Head Start 참여가 성인기 소득에 직접적인 영향을 미치지는 않는 것으로 발견되었다. 하지만, 높은 교육 성취를 통한 간접적인 소득 증대 효과는 확인할 수 있었다. 연구자는 이상의 결과를 바탕으로 장기적인 빈곤 감소를 위한 아동 정책의 중요성 및 미국의 Head Start가 우리나라의 빈곤정책 및 아동복지정책에 시사하는 점에 대해 논의하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Head Start program was introduced in 1965 to break down the intergenerational transmission of poverty by a comprehensive preschool program for low income children and their families. Since then, a number of studies have examined the impact of the program, but its long-term effects has seldom been explored. The main purpose of this study is to examine the long-term effects of the program on adulthood educational attainment and economic status. For the analysis, this study utilized data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) from 1970 to 2005. With the data of 1,765 young adults(aged 19 to 35 in 2005), this study employed Propensity Score Matching (PSM) analysis to minimize differences between Head Start children and others. According to the results, Head Start provided sizeable gains to its participants when it comes to educational attainment if they attended the program at least one year. Although no direct effects were found on economic status(personal earnings and family income to poverty ratio), indirect effects were confirmed through educational attainment. Although some studies have questioned the long-term effects of Head Start participation, this study confirmed that Head Start had provided long lasting effects to its participants on their adulthood educational attainment and economic status. Based on the research findings, implications to Korean welfare policies were discussed.

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