Sensitivity of Mid-latitude Typhoon Forecast to Multiple Physics Parameterization Dchemes

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Recently, the frequency of typhoons affecting East Asia has been increasing due to climate change. In particular, some typhoons maintain their intensity before making landfall. However, even short-term typhoon predictions still have tens of kilometers of track errors or can not sufficiently simulate the rapid intensification (weakening) of typhoons. This can be a serious problem for people living in coastal areas when typhoons are active. In order to prevent the damage from typhoons in advance, it is necessary to improve the short-term forecast performance of typhoons. In numerical weather prediction models, the typhoon track and intensity forecast performances are highly sensitive to physics parameterization schemes. Thus, in this study, the forecast performance of a typhoon was compared according to the physics schemes using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model is consisted of three domains with 12km (601x451), 4km (301x301), and 1.33km (301x301) horizontal resolutions (grid points), respectively. We used the two-way moving nesting technique for domains 2 and 3 to resolve the inner core structure of the typhoon realistically. To compare the sensitivity of physics settings to typhoon forecasting and their dissimilar reaction to the synoptic-scale weather phenomena, we selected three cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS) of Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), modified Tiedtke (TDK), and also three microphysics schemes (MPS) of WRF-single-moment-microphysics class 3 (WSM3), WRF-single-moment-microphysics class 6 (WSM6), Predicted Particle Properties (P3) 1-category. We selected 6 TCs that moved northward to mid-latitudes, and directly (or indirectly) affected the East Asia region in recent years. The results show that there was a significant difference in simulated typhoon track and intensity performances depending on the physics schemes. On average, the typhoon forecast performances were improved when applyingKF for CPS and WSM3 or WSM6 for MPS.