‘닫힌 상자’에서의 복원추출에 의한 모비율 추측 활동수업 개발 및 적용 = An application and development of an activity lesson guessing a population ratio by sampling with replacement in 'Closed box'

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this study, I developed an activity oriented lesson to support the understanding of probabilistic and quantitative estimating population ratios according to the standard statistical principles and discussed its implications in didactical respects. The developed activity lesson, as an efficient physical simulation activity by sampling with replacement, simulates unknown populations and real problem situations through completely closed 'Closed Box' in which we can not see nor take out the inside balls, and provides teaching and learning devices which highlight the representativeness of sample ratios and the sampling variability. I applied this activity lesson to the gifted students who did not learn estimating population ratios and collected the research data such as the activity sheets and recording and transcribing data of students' presenting, and analyzed them by Qualitative Content Analysis. As a result of an application, this activity lesson was effective in recognizing and reflecting on the representativeness of sample ratios and recognizing the random sampling variability. On the other hand, in order to show the sampling variability clearer, I discussed appropriately increasing the total number of the inside balls put in 'Closed Box' and the active involvement of the teachers to make students pay attention to controlling possible selection bias in sampling processes.