소연방과 중앙아시아 :지역 정체성과 결정화, 그 역사적 수렴과 발산

정세진 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2022 중소연구 Vol.46 No.2

In 1924, the Soviet ruling class created a so-called 'created nation' through demarcation of borders in Central Asia, creating a new constituent republic. However, this has become an element of conflict in Central Asia at this stage. The demarcation of borders carried out by the Soviet authorities led to the creation of individual ethnic groups and the operation of individual ethnic identities. In other words, the birth of a new republic in 1991 began with the formation of the Soviet Union in 1922. In the past, border boundaries were established in areas where there was no precise ethnic division. The delimitation of the border, which began in 1924, was completed in 1936. In the present Eurasia region, that is, in the former Soviet Union region, there is now a huge national conflict. These conflicts are occurring between nations. Why are these conflicts taking place in Eurasia? In order to understand the chaos situation in this region, this paper tried to analyze the implications of the broad regional identity of Central Asia from the imperial Russian period to the post-Soviet period. The identity of the Central Asian region belonging to the Soviet Union did not function as the subjectivity of the entire Soviet society. Although the delimitation of borders created a situation in which individual national identities were expressed, there was a clear limitation in which Central Asian national identities were not developed independently due to limited regional identities. This became an element of territorial and regional disputes between different peoples, and even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there was an aspect that developed into an element of conflicts between each nation and each ethnic group. Overall, Soviet identity was in large part tied to Central Asian regional identity. However, the core of Soviet society was Russia, and it can be said that the legacy left by the Russians is still connected with the legacy of the Soviet Union. 1924년 소련 지배층은 중앙아시아에서 전격적인 국경 경계 획정을 통해 소위 ‘창조된 민족’을 만들면서 새로운 구성공화국을 탄생시켰다. 그런데 이는 현 단계 중앙아시아의 분쟁 요소가 되었다. 소련 당국이 행했던 국경 경계 획정으로 개별 민족이 탄생하였고 개별 민족 정체성이 작동되었다. 즉 1991년 신생 공화국의 탄생은 1922년 소연방이 형성되면서 시작되었다. 과거에 정확히 민족 구분이 되지 않은 지역에서 국경 경계가 확정되었다. 1924년부터 시작된 국경 경계 획정은 1936년에 완결되었다. 현재 유라시아 지역, 즉 과거 소련 지역에서는 지금 거대한 국가 분쟁이 발생하고 있다. 이러한 분쟁은 민족 사이, 국가 사이에서 발생하고 있다. 왜 이러한 분쟁이 유라시아 지역에서 벌어지고 있는가? 이 지역에서 혼돈 상황을 이해하기 위해 본고는 제정러시아시기부터 포스트소비에트 시기까지 중앙아시아의 광범위한 지역 정체성의 함의를 분석하고자 했다. 소련에 속한 중앙아시아 지역 정체성은 소련 전체 사회의 주체성으로 작동하지 못했다. 비록 국경 경계 획정으로 개별 민족 정체성이 발현되는 상황이 창출되었지만, 중앙아시아 민족 정체성은 한계적인 지역 정체성으로 인해 주체적으로 발전되지 못한 한계가 분명히 있었다. 이는 각 민족 간의 영토적, 지역적 분쟁의 요소가 되었으며, 소련 해체 이후에도 각 국가 간, 각 민족 간 분쟁의 요소로 발전된 측면이 있었다. 전체적으로 소비에트 정체성은 중앙아시아 지역 정체성과 많은 부분 결부되었다. 그러나 소련 사회의 핵심은 러시아였으며, 러시아 인이 남겨준 유산은 소련의 유산과도 연관성을 지닌 채로 현재까지 이르고 있다.

국채장기수익률의 동태적 조건부 상관관계를 이용한 중국 실물경제예측에 관한 연구

이기영 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2018 중소연구 Vol.42 No.1

본 연구는 중국 경제가 불확실성이 증대되는 가운데 중국경제의 불황 혹은 위기를 사전적으로 알 수 있는 예측도구를 개발하기 위해 사용되었다. 본 연구는 Lee et al(2016)의 미국에 대해서 진행한 논문결과가 중국에서도 유효하게 적용되는지를 검정한 후속연구로 세계 경제의 동조화가 심화된 현재에 미래 경제정보를 가지고 있는 국채장기수익률의 조건부 상관관계(Dynamic Conditional correlation)를통해서 중국 경제예측력을 검정해보았다. 표본 내 예측결과 글로벌 요인과 지역요인의 동태적 조건부 상관관계는 모두 Term Spread, PMI, 선행지수를 통제해도 중장기적으로 유효한 것으로 나타났으며, 표본외 예측결과에서는 지역요인이 단기적으로 Term Spread보다 우월한 예측력을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 이를 통해 중국경제는 지역요인의 조건부 상관관계를 통해주로 단기적 예측을, This study is intended to develop a prediction tool with which an economic depression or crisis of the People’s Republic of China while the uncertainty of the Chinese economy has increased. In this study as a follow-up one which tests if the study results conducted by Lee et al. (2016) in the USA may be able to applied effectively to the Chinese economy, the prediction capability of the Chinese Economy was tested by having used the dynamic conditional correlation between many long-term government bond yields that hold the future economic information at the time of the present when the synchronization of the economies of many countries over the world has been deepened. As the results from the In Sample test, it was found that the dynamic conditional correlations caused by the global and regional factors were effective from the middle- and long-term views even though the term spreads, PMIs and the relevant leading economic indexes were controlled. As the results from the Out of Sample test, for predicting the Chinese economy, it was found that the regional factors have a superior prediction capability than the term spread in a short term. Accordingly, it seems that it is rational to conduct a short-term prediction mainly by examining the dynamic conditional correlation between the regional factors and to do a middle- or long-term prediction by checking the term spreads.

Aqyn agha? Abai Zholy as socialist realism and as literary history

Gabriel McGuire 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2018 Journal of Eurasian Studies Vol.9 No.1

In Mukhtar Auezov's 1942 novel Abai Zholy, socialism is an end anticipated not just by history but more specifically by Kazakh literary history. In his earlier scholarly writings, Auezov had presented Abai as a transformational figure in the emergence of written Kazakh literature. In the novel, Abai becomes not only a literary innovator but also a political reformist: Auezov's Abai is horrified by the harsh and feudalistic behavior of his father Qunanbai, a wealthy local leader, and finds companionship and inspiration in his encounters with a series of famous 19th century Kazakh aqyns (bards). Auezov thus used Abai Zholy to argue that Kazakh folk literature had always been animated by a spirit of social critique which, in its laments and desires, had anticipated the Soviet world. This paper compares these aqyns' depiction in the novel first with Auezov's earlier scholarship on the 19th century and second with the content of the aqyns' own surviving works. These ideas reflected both contemporaneous shifts in Soviet nationalities policy and the influence of socialist realist literary models, which commonly staged both literary history and generational conflicts as allegories of political change.

The pawn of great powers: The East–West competition for Caucasia

Ronald Grigor Suny 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2010 Journal of Eurasian Studies Vol.1 No.1

My argument in this paper is that Caucasia has become an area of contention, like much of post-Soviet Eurasia, between the East and West, particularly between Russia's Caucasian policy, which revolves around its long-term interest in re-establishing its regional hegemony in the so-called Near Abroad, and the United States' grander ambition for global hegemony. The South Caucasus has provided the first opportunity for Russia to demonstrate its will to prevent the United States, NATO, and the European Community from penetrating the southern tier of the former USSR. Russia's move is not a program of imperial control, but rather a determined effort to contain or even roll back the influence of other powers, most importantly, the United States and NATO in the regions closest to Russia's borders. The “southern tier” of the former Soviet Union – Caucasia and Central Asia – contains the most vulnerable regions in which other powers might intervene, and it is here where Russia will test its new policies. Up until August 2008 it used primarily “soft power” vigorously to prevent other powers from increasing their influence in the region. In August it demonstrated it was prepared, when pushed, to use “hard power.” The Russo–Georgian War was a watershed in East–West relations with a more assertive Russia willing to take on its more powerful competitors.

To decentralize or to continue on the centralization track: The cases of authoritarian regimes in Russia and Kazakhstan

Irina Busygina,Mikhail Filippov,Elmira Taukebaeva 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2018 Journal of Eurasian Studies Vol.9 No.1

Decisions on decentralization versus centralization come as a result of strategic choices made by politicians after weighing their costs and benefits. In authoritarian regimes, the highest-priority political task is that of restraining political competition and securing power in the hands of the incumbent. This task incentivizes politicians to restrict political decentralization (or at least block reforms promoting such decentralization). At the same time, external economic pressures (e.g. globalization) place the task of national competitiveness in the global markets on the agenda, and increase incentives for fiscal and administrative decentralization. Thus, political and economic pressures create contradicting incentives, and in weighing costs and benefits, politicians in different authoritarian regimes make different choices that lead to variation in the form, degree and success of decentralization/centralization policies. In this article we compare authoritarian decentralization in Russia and Kazakhstan.

Central Asia and Japan: Bilateral and multilateral relations

Mirzokhid Rakhimov 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2014 Journal of Eurasian Studies Vol.5 No.1

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1991s Central Asian nations and Japan established diplomatic relations and partnership began to increase steadily as manifested by the level of official contacts. In 1997 the “Silk Road” Diplomacy concept was formulated for Japan's policy toward Central Asia. In the beginning of 21st century we see activization of new actors including India, Korea and Japan in Central Asia, which were mainly welcomed in the region. Tokyo recognized the growing strategic importance of Central Asia in the context of international security and sought to play a more active role as an Asian nation in Eurasia. During two decades Central Asian nations and Japan partnership began to increase steadily. Japan is one of the largest assistants to Central Asia in structural reforms and Japanese investments to the different aspects of region economy and transport communication add up to several billions. There are several areas of special interest to Japan in its relations with Central Asia, including cooperation in education, economic development of the region, political reforms, as well as energy resources. Japan's effort in creating the “Central Asia plus Japan” dialog is part of its multilateral diplomacy. At the same time there are some challenges and problems in Central Asia–Japan relations. However, there are potentialities for future bilateral and multilateral relations. Japan like Korea, India and other countries has a strong positive image in Central Asia, which could be regarded as an additional factor for fostering partnership of Central and East Asia as well as interregional relation with the vast Asian continent and beyond.

The concept of “Greater Eurasia”: The Russian “turn to the East” and its consequences for the European Union from the geopolitical angle of analysis

Glaser (Kukartseva) Marina,Thomann Pierre-Emmanuel 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2022 Journal of Eurasian Studies Vol.13 No.1

This article examines the Russian project of Greater Eurasia, the reasons for launching such an initiative, and its possible influence on the current regional and global trends in the field of geopolitics, security policy, and relations between Russia and the European Union. The article argues that Greater Eurasia, as a developing geo-economic and geostrategic community, opens up opportunities for Russia and the European project to reset their relationship by creating new zones of mutual development.

Russia's defense spending and the economic decline

Susanne Oxenstierna 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2016 Journal of Eurasian Studies Vol.7 No.1

The purpose of this article is to explore the development of Russian military spending in light of weak and negative growth of the Russian economy and to look at the reasons for the economic decline that has developed after the economic crisis in 2009 and is due to long-term internal structural factors that have existed since the mid-2000s. The confidence crisis resulting from Russia's aggression against Ukraine 2014, Western sanctions and falling oil prices has further aggravated these tendencies and the economy is now contracting. The main conclusions are that the share of the defense budget in GDP has risen substantially, but there is still a trade-off between defense and other public spending in the budget. Political reform would be necessary to implement market institutions and revive the economy.

Ukraine's revolution of dignity: The dynamics of Euromaidan

Yuriy Shveda,Joung Ho Park 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2016 Journal of Eurasian Studies Vol.7 No.1

This paper analyzes the civil revolution in Ukraine, which is also known as the Euromaidan Revolution. It is regarded as the Revolution of Dignity by Ukrainian citizens. In this respect, this paper focuses on a clarification of the dynamics of the Ukrainian civil revolution. The authors will try to trace the essential causes, processes, and historical implications of the Euromaidan Revolution. In addition, we plan to assess the nature of civil revolution. This study not only was based on the primary sources in Ukrainian language but also was described from the perspective of the participants of the revolution.

Hardly visible, highly admired? Youth perceptions of the EU in Kazakhstan

Arynov Zhanibek 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터 2022 Journal of Eurasian Studies Vol.13 No.1

Youth have always been one of the central target audiences of the European Union’s (EU) policies towards Central Asia, which was once again emphasised in the recent EU Strategy for the region. This paper scrutinises how youth representatives in Kazakhstan, Brussels’ closest partner in the region, perceive the EU and its policies. By doing so, the paper shifts the focus from the EU-centric assessment of its external activities, which has long dominated the academic literature, and provides a ‘voice’ to the targets of the EU’s various initiatives. Examining data obtained through the method of pictorial test and focus group discussions with students of leading Kazakhstani universities, the paper argues that the issue Brussels faces among youth is not an image problem, rather it is a visibility issue. Although Kazakhstani youth are aware of the EU’s main ‘attributes’ at the basic level, they have little knowledge that goes beyond stereotypical, yet positive, images of it. This stereotyped admiration towards the EU, however, is not necessarily an outcome of Brussels’ successful policies, rather it is partly inherited from the historically idealised image of Europe. The paper suggests that increasing its visibility and better communicating its policies and messages need to be a priority for the EU in Central Asia.