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WHAT IS IT THAT BEST EXPLAINS: THE EAST ASIAN PEACE SINCE 1979? A CALL FOR A RESEARCH AGENDA
Stein Tønnesson 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 2009 ASIAN PERSPECTIVE Vol.33 No.1
This article discusses how historians and social scientists may go about seeking to explain the relative absence of war in East Asia since 1979, after a period of three decades when East Asia was the world’s most war-prone region. Many have discussed the European Peace, only few the East Asian one, which calls for both similar and quite different explanations. The article does not present findings from research already made, but rather calls for a research agenda, aiming to solicit sponsors and contributors around the world who would like to take part in its development. The purpose will not just be to understand the past, but also to discuss what it may take to protect, deepen, and sustain peace in East Asia at a time of economic upheaval and a likely continued, perhaps accelerated shift of economic as well as military power from North America and Europe to East Asia. This article discusses how historians and social scientists may go about seeking to explain the relative absence of war in East Asia since 1979, after a period of three decades when East Asia was the world’s most war-prone region. Many have discussed the European Peace, only few the East Asian one, which calls for both similar and quite different explanations. The article does not present findings from research already made, but rather calls for a research agenda, aiming to solicit sponsors and contributors around the world who would like to take part in its development. The purpose will not just be to understand the past, but also to discuss what it may take to protect, deepen, and sustain peace in East Asia at a time of economic upheaval and a likely continued, perhaps accelerated shift of economic as well as military power from North America and Europe to East Asia.
Deterrence, interdependence and Sino–US peace
Stein Tønnesson 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2015 International Area Studies Review Vol.18 No.3
Nuclear deterrence and economic interdependence are key factors in cost calculations underpinning decisions on war or peace between states. This paper combines deterrence and interdependence in a proposed theory of major power peace, with reference to a number of insightful works on the ongoing transition of power from the US to a rising China. The paper explores the hypothesis that as long as the US and China can deter each other with a combination of conventional and nuclear forces, and refrain from actions to drastically reduce their economic dependence on each other, there is little risk of war between them. Peace will be further secured if important third party countries, notably Japan, remain covered by US extended deterrence and integrated economically with both China and the USA through trade and transnational production chains. Only if the US, Chinese or Japanese governments take politically motivated actions to radically reduce their economic dependence on one another are they likely to engage in a security competition of sufficient intensity to generate an arms race and a substantial risk of war. This does not just hold for all-out war but for limited war as well, given the risk of escalation.
Can Russia keep its special ties with Vietnam while moving closer and closer to China?
Pavel K Baev,Stein Tønnesson 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2015 International Area Studies Review Vol.18 No.3
While entering into a deep confrontation with the West in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, Russia has sought to uphold its international profile by upgrading its strategic partnership with China and adding new economic content to it, first of all in energy deals. At the same time, Moscow is aware of the risks related to becoming a minor partner to powerful China and to diminishing its ability to make its own contributions to forming the global agenda. One way of avoiding too much dependence on Chinese patronage would be to retain and cultivate the traditional ties with Vietnam and perhaps even play a pacifying role in the oscillating Chinese- Vietnamese tensions. Russian energy companies are exploring opportunities for further advancing offshore oil and gas projects in the South China Sea, although the profitability of these projects remains rather low. Russia has delivered two out of six contracted Kilo class submarines to Vietnam, but its role as the main provider of weapons may now be challenged by the USA and Japan. The prospects for maintaining or expanding Russia’s security and energy connections with Vietnam is thus a demanding topic for analysis, which may throw light also on the all-important trilateral relationship between China, the USA and Japan.