RISS 검색 - 국내학술지논문

1
Earthquake activities along the Indonesian Sunda Margin: a seismicity approach

Santi Pailoplee 한국지질과학협의회 2017 Geosciences Journal Vol.21 No.4
The earthquake activities along the Indonesian Sunda Margin, which is delineated parallel to the Indonesian Island chain, were statistically investigated. Utilizing the obtained completeness earthquake catalogue, the mapped spatial distributions of the (i) possible maximum magnitude, (ii) return period, and (iii) probability of exceedance of an earthquake of a given magnitude revealed that the Indonesian Island chain could be classified into three different hazard level groups. The highest hazard level was located along the segment of Padang to Jakarta, surrounding Ambon, and northeastern Palu, whereas the southwestern Yogyakarta, southwestern Bajawa, and Dili, were classified as an intermediate hazard level. Although Makassar, southern Praya, southern Bajawa, and southeastern Dili was classified as a relatively low hazard area (compared to the other areas in the Indonesian Island chain), a major earthquake (7.0 Mw) is still likely to occur with 10–20% probabilities in the next 50 years. Therefore, the contribution of suitable local mitigation plans for both seismic and tsunami hazards are strongly recommended for all the different regions within the Indonesian Island chain.
2
Earthquake activities in the Philippines Islands and the adjacent areas

Santi Pailoplee,Natchana Boonchaluay 한국지질과학협의회 2016 Geosciences Journal Vol.20 No.6
This study focused on the seismic activities in the Philippines Islands and the adjacent areas where the inter- and intra-plate seismic sources are prevalent. To access this, the frequency-magnitude distribution model was employed with the completeness seismicity data. Then, the possible maximum magnitude, return period and probability of earthquake occurrence, including the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, were evaluated. The results indicated that eastern Taiwan is among the most seismic-prone areas. The most probable largest magnitude of earthquakes was estimated to be up to 8.0 Mw in a time period of 50 years, giving return periods of <1, 2–4, 5–20 and 20–40 years for earthquakes with a Mw of 5.0, 6.0, 7.0 and 8.0, respectively. Meanwhile, in the areas of Davao and eastern Manado, where the group of Halmahera, Philippines and Sangihe Double Subduction Zones are delineated (HSZ, PSZ and SSZ, respectively), maximum earthquakes of 6.8–7.1 Mw are possible in a 5–10 year period. For the northern Minahassa and eastern Sulu Trenches (MST and SLT), which were defined as medium hazard areas, the return periods were calculated at ~100–200 years for an earthquake magnitude of 7.0–8.0 Mw. According to the limits of the recorded earthquake events, the Palawan, Sulu Archipelago and Sulu Trenches (PWT, SAT and SLT, respectively) are classified as aseismic source zones. For earthquake forecasting, six locations along the Manila Trench (MLT), HSZ, PSZ and SAT are proposed as the areas that have a high probability of generating a major earthquake in the near future. Geographically, the most prospective areas are located near major cities, such as Taipei, Manila, Davao and Manado. Thus, there is a compelling need to develop effective mitigation strategies for both tsunami and earthquake hazards.
3
Probabilistic analysis of the seismic activity and hazard in northern Thailand

Santi Pailoplee,Punya Charusiri 한국지질과학협의회 2015 Geosciences Journal Vol.19 No.4
The seismic activity and hazard level in northern Thailand, including at the Mae Moh Coal Mine (MMCM), were clarified. For the probability of exceedance (POE), Chiang Mai, Lamphun, and Lampang provinces have a 70–90% and 20–40% POE of a MW-5.0 and MW-6.0 earthquake, respectively, in the next 50 y. In the case of a MW-7.0 earthquake, the POE is less than 10% in the whole study area. Regarding the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the ground shaking maps indicated that the southeastern part of the MMCM and northwestern part of Phayao provinces were high hazard areas, with an earthquake ground shaking of around 0.28–0.32g and 0.18–0.24g for a POE of 2% and 10%, respectively, in the next 50 y. In addition, the probability maps revealed that these high hazard areas showed a 60–80% and 30–40% POE of a modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) level III and IV, respectively, in the next 50 y. The low hazard areas of Chiang Mai and Uttaradit provinces had a ground shaking level for a 2% and 10% POE in the next 50 y of around 0.16 and 0.08, respectively, with a POE of a MMI level III or IV of less than 20% each.
4
Precursory seismic quiescence along the Sagaing fault zone, Central Myanmar− application of the region-timelength algorithm

Premwadee Traitangwong,Santi Pailoplee 한국지질과학협의회 2017 Geosciences Journal Vol.21 No.4
In this study, the quiescence stage of seismicity prior to seven strong-to-major earthquakes posed along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central of Myanmar were evaluated using the Region-Time-Length (RTL) algorithm. After improving the completeness of the earthquake catalogue, the suitable characteristics of RTL parameters were tested retrospectively with seven strongto- major earthquakes available in the catalogue. According to the iterative test, the parameters r0 = 150 km and t0 = 3 y were suitable for detecting the precursory seismic quiescence along the SFZ. Consequently, with the implementation of these parameters and the present-day seismicity data of 1960–2015, the quiescence maps obtained indicated that western Myitkyina and the area in the vicinity of the Naypyidaw segments of the SFZ are at risk from future earthquakes. Therefore, effective mitigation plans should be developed.

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