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      • Foreign participation in emerging Asia's local currency debt markets and its links with bond yields

        Julien Marcilly 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2009 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 학술대회 Vol.2009 No.10

        The recent financial market turmoil is a reminder of how strongly markets interrelate to one another and notably the significant impact that global risk appetite has on all (open) markets. Emerging Asia"s financial markets have been no exception and have suffered the perils of global market volatility and risk aversion over the past year. Local currency bond markets are part of this story. Within the context of the current crisis, the structural issue of how to manage foreign participation in domestic markets has taken on a new dimension for emerging Asia (and for that matter other emerging markets) given the noticeable surge in inflows to some of Asia"s local bond markets over the past years. Foreign capital inflows enable emerging countries to finance investment and foreign participation in local bond markets is seen as a way to accelerate the development of financial infrastructure. According to common beliefs, foreign investments have been a key driver of the recent downward trend in emerging market bond yields. Capital inflows, however, may create overheating and cause an appreciation of the real exchange rate impacting macroeconomic performance. In addition to this, in times of crisis (triggered by either local or global events) foreign capital flows may exit quickly resulting in financial instability. Foreign participation is thus often blamed for causing financial market volatility with periods of sharp inflows driving asset price bubbles and periods of sharp outflows accelerating asset price declines. It is difficult, however, to assess the precise extent to which foreign investments affect local markets dynamics. Against this backdrop, the goal of this paper is to empirically study the link between foreign investment in emerging Asia"s local currency debt markets and bond yields. The paper is structured as follows. Section 1 is the introduction. Section 2 documents recent trends in bond yields and in foreign investment activity in local currency bond markets of emerging Asia and consider the potential key explanatory factors linking the two. Section 3 summarizes the existing literature related to the effects of foreign participation on financial markets. Section 4 explains the empirical method applied in this paper and details the results of the VAR models and impulse responses. Section 5 concludes.

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