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WTO 가입에 따른 중국의 관세인하가 韓.中.日 3국간 교역에 미치는 영향과 정책적 시사점
Inkyo Cheong 대외경제정책연구원 2001 East Asian Economic Review Vol.5 No.1
Because of the increased possibility of China’s accession to the WTO due to the settlement of negotiations with the U.S. and EU, the world is interested in opening China’s domestic market and taking advantage of the opportunities. Existing papers about China’s entry into the WTO generally analyze the impact on China and the world economy based on his/her assumption of a hypothetical tariff reduction scenario. However, this paper systematically analyzes by sector and region the tariff reduction structures of 5,685 tariff lines that China will actually reduce up until 2005. Based on this, the author employs a computational general equilibrium model in order to estimate the impact of China’s trade liberalization on the economies of Northeast Asia and the world economy. According to the results, China’s trade liberalization will bring the greatest benefit to China itself and substantial export expansion for Korea and Japan. This paper also states that if these three countries promote economic cooperation using China’s accession to the WTO as momentum, it will be necessary to think economic cooperation in the fiber and clothing industries, which are quite effectively promoting intra-regional trade and absorbing workers left unemployed by structural adjustments in China. 미국, EU 등과의 연속적인 양자협상 타결로 중국의 WTO 가입 가능성이 높아짐에 딸라 이후 진행될 중국시장 개방에 세계의 이목이 집중되고 있다. 그 동안 중국의 WTO 가입에 대한 연구는 개별 연구자들이 설정한 가상적인 관세인하 시나리오 하에서 중국 및 세계경제에 미치는 영향 분석을 중심으로 이루여져 왔다. 그러나 본 연구에서는 중국이 실제로 이행하게 됭 5,685개의 품목의 관세인하로 낱날 영향을 산업별, 교역국(한국과 일본)별로 체계적으로 분석하고, 이 결과를 CGE 모형에 적용함으로써 세계경제 및 동북아의 교역구조에 미칠 영향을 계량적으로 추정하였다. 본 논문의 연구결과에 따르면, 중국의 관세인하는 중국 자신에게 가장 큰 이익을 가져다 줄 것으로 나타났으며, 한.중.일 3국의 산업간 교역에 미치는 중국의 시장개방 효과는 주로 자동차, 섬유, 및 의류산업 등에 집중될 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 중국의 WTO 가입을 계기로 동북아 3국 경제협력을 강화할 경우, 역재교역 확대와 고용증대 효과가 큰 섬유 및 의류분야에서의 협력강화를 우선적으로 고려할 필요가 있다.
Estimation of Benefits and costs of Korea’s unification
Inkyo Cheong 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2015 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS AND TRADE Vol.13 No.1
Discussion of unification was for several decades focused on the costs rather than the benefits for Korea, until reports emphasizing the latter were published by Goldman Sachs (2009) and various Korean think tanks over the past four to five years. Although these studies can be evaluated positively in pointing out the benefits of unification rather than the concerns about the costs, several questions can be raised. This paper tries to evaluate the quality and credibility of existing studies and suggests a new approach for estimating the impact of unification. It proposes a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model to be based on the social accounting matrix (SAM) and input-output (IO) table for the North Korean economy, in order to produce more reliable estimates of the benefits and costs of unification and the impact of various cooperative activities between the two Koreas.
Inkyo CHEONG,Jungran CHO 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2010 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 학술대회 Vol.2010 No.7
This paper reviews the impact of Korea"s FTAs on trade and business, reporting substantial trade growth with FTA partner countries with some exceptions. It also analyzes FTA use by firms, and tries to present the effects of the FTAs on the Korean business firms. According to the paper, Korea"s first four FTAs demonstrate big differences in the utilization rates. In general, the degree of FTA utilization was found to be higher with imports than with exports. Korea-Chile FTA utilization rate for Korean imports reported average of 90.5% for the four years since the FTA was implemented. In the case of Korea-Singapore FTA, Korea-EFTA FTA and Korea-ASEAN FTA, however, the utilization rates were average 29.8%, 42.5%, and 43.3%, respectively. The paper identifies the reasons for poor FTA utilizations in those FTAs, and tries to suggest policy implications for improving FTA utilization by firms.
The Evaluation of East Asian Regionalism from APEC to RCEP
Inkyo Cheong,Jungran Cho 인하대학교 정석물류통상연구원 2013 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS AND TRADE Vol.11 No.1
Building a large trading bloc tends to produce substantial economic gains, while minimizing economic losses from overlapping FTAs. East Asia has tried to generate the impetus for promoting region-wide trading blocs, but most of those blocs have been overlapped and multilayered. This paper reviews the evolution of East Asian regionalism from the APEC FTA under the 1994 Bogor Goal to recent RCEP promoted in 2013. This paper underlines that the continued expansion of multilayered trading blocs in East Asia works as a serious obstacle to regional economic integration, rather than exploring the realization of a region-wide trading bloc.
Inkyo Cheong 대외경제정책연구원 1998 East Asian Economic Review Vol.2 No.4
After the WTO system came into effect, the trend of signing new regional trade agreement also lasts. Every county has been positively using regional trade agreements at the strategy level. In order to minimize the loss caused by treading the countries out of the preference trade agreement differently, WTO regulated the level allowed in regional trade agreement. But actually, the way that eliminates the different factors of the countries out of the regional trade agreement through WTO has its limitation. Therefore, it is necessary for Korea to change its position in the direction of insuring the economic substantial results by way of signing regional trade agreement positively.