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강현국(Kang Hyun Gook),김만철(Kim Man Cheol),박주남(Park Joo Nam),왕종배(Wang Jong Bae) 한국철도학회 2007 한국철도학회 학술발표대회논문집 Vol.- No.-
In order to overcome the difficulties of quantitative risk analysis such as complexity of model, we propose a systematic methodology for risk quantification of railway system which consists of 6 steps: The identification of risk factors, the determination of major scenarios for each risk factor by using event tree, the development of supplementary fault trees for evaluating branch probabilities, the evaluation of event probabilities, the quantification of risk, and the analysis in consideration of accident situation. In this study, in order to address the feasibility of the propose methodology, this framework is applied to the prototype risk model of nation-wide railway level crossings. And the quantification result based on the data of 2005 in Korea will also be presented.