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THE FUTURE OF U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS AND THE KOREAN PENINSULA
Goldstein, Avery 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 2002 ASIAN PERSPECTIVE Vol.26 No.3
Korea remains one of the principal issues on the Asian agenda in which both the United Stated and China have a strong interest. This article explores some of the links between changing Sino-American relations and the future of Korea. It does so in three steps. First, it examines the international context within which China and the United States currently operate. Second, it examines key interests shaping their bilateral relations relevant to the future of the Korean peninsula, especially China's security concerns as a rising power in an era of American preponderance. Beijing's interest in increasing its international influence while also maintaining valuable economic ties to the United States (both essential to ensuring the Chinese Communist Party's political legitimacy at home) presents China's leaders with conflicting foreign policy imperatives manifest in their view of events in Korea. And third, the article examines four highly stylized scenarios depicting Korean futures and their significance for Sino-American relations.
Assessing Financial Vulnerability in Emerging Economies: A Summary of Empirical Results
Morris Goldstein,Graciela L. Kaminsky,Carmen M. Reinhart 대외경제정책연구원 2000 East Asian Economic Review Vol.4 No.2
This paper aims to identify key empirical regularities in the run-up to banking and currency crises that would enable officials and private market participants to recognize vulnerability to financial crises at an earlier stage. This, in turn, should make it easier to motivate the corrective policy actions that would prevent such crises from actually taking place. Interest in identifying early warning indicators of financial crises has soared of late, stoked primarily by two factors. First, there is increasing recognition that banking and currency crises can be extremely costly to the countries in which they originate; in addition, these crises often spillover via a variety of channels to increase the vulnerability of other countries to financial crisis. The second reason for the increased interest in early warning indicators of financial crises is that there is accumulating evidence that two of the most closely watched market indicators of default and currency risks-namely, interest rate spreads and changes in credit ratings- frequently do not provide much advance warning of currency and banking crises. The other reason why market prices may not signal impending crises is that there are often widely and strongly-held expectations of a bail-out of a troubled borrower by the official sector ?be it national or international. Dooley has stressed this point in several papers. If interest rate spreads and sovereign credit ratings only give advance warning of financial crises once in a while, increased interest attaches to the question of whether there are other early-warning indicators that would do a better job, and if so, what are they? This is one of the key questions we address in this paper.