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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Ghartey (검색결과 4 건)
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MONETARY POLICY AND DEFICITS FINANCING IN JAMAICA
EDWARDE.GHARTEY 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2003 Journal of Economic Development Vol.28 No.1
A vector error-correction model (VECM) is estimated to examine the relationship among interest rates, monetary base, credit claims to the private sector, real income, prices, government spending, budget deficits and exchange rate in Jamaica. Cointegration is used to identify the VECM. The empirical results show that fiscal deficits are monetized in the long-run; the roles of financial services are weak, and inverse price-real output relationship exists in both the short-run and the long-run. Monetary disciplines, reduction in fiscal spending and sound regulatory actions are crucial to reduce the national debt, the inflation and interest rates, crowd in private investments, avert financial crisis and promote economic growth.
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FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: SOME CARIBBEAN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
EDWARD E GHARTEY 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2018 Journal of Economic Development Vol.43 No.1
The paper examines the role of financial development and economic growth in Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. Causality tests conducted by using the stepwise Granger causality method, after addressing respective unknown exogenous structural changes, and using bounds testing approach to determine the level relationships between economic growth and each respective real financial development proxies, produced more robust results. Thus, economic growth drives real financial development in the short-run in all three countries, with Trinidad-Tobago’s results being overwhelming. Long-run weak exogeneity tests from respective factor loadings indicate similar demand-following phenomenon in Jamaica, although results are mixed in Barbados and Trinidad-Tobago. Policymakers are therefore advised to make the overall economic growth of Jamaica their policy priority, and not favor its financial market with special policies over both near term and long-run. Similar policy is strongly recommended for both Trinidad-Tobago and Barbados. However, in Barbados and Trinidad-Tobago, mixed Granger causal relationship results suggest that extending resources as incentives to boost up both financial market development and economic growth will benefit them over the long-run.
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COINTEGRATION AND CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TAXES AND SPENDING FOR KENYA, NIGERIA AND SOUTH AFRICA
Edward E. Ghartey 한국국제경제학회 2010 International Economic Journal Vol.24 No.2
Taxes and spending causal relationships are examined for three African countries using the GDP as a control variable, and dummy variables to address structural changes in Nigeria and South Africa. There is one cointegration equation between nominal fiscal variables in all three countries, one cointegration equation for Kenya and two cointegration equations for Nigeria and South Africa for the real fiscal variables and their respective dummy variables. Short-term results of the nominal variables show fiscal independence for all three countries. In real terms, taxes cause spending for Kenya and Nigeria and a weak fiscal synchronization for South Africa. There is long run fiscal synchronization in nominal terms for all three countries, and in real terms for both Nigeria and South Africa, while real taxes cause spending in Kenya. Long-run estimates show a unit increase in nominal (real) taxes translating into less than proportionate increase in nominal (real) spending for Kenya and South Africa, and more than proportionate increase in nominal (real) spending for Nigeria. Fiscal imbalance is not a threat in the budgetary process in Kenya and South Africa, but an issue of concern in Nigeria, where oil revenues are a major source of support for budget short falls.
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Stabilization Effects of Narrative-based Monetary Policy in Jamaica
Edward E. Ghartey 한국국제경제학회 2013 International Economic Journal Vol.27 No.3
The study constructs a monetary policy indicator (MPI) from monetary policy documents and the actions of the Bank of Jamaica and Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, and uses it to estimate four variants of an analytical narrative-vector error correction model (AN-VECM) with cointegration as the identifying restriction. In AN-VECMs 1 and 2, the cointegration is estimated in level form with respective short-term interest rate and the MPI as regressands. The first difference forms of respective models are re-estimated in AN-VECMs 3 and 4. The results are mixed, with AN-VECM 1 yielding the least results. However, in all cases, the impulse response functions indicate that the MPI yields slightly superior results in both AN-VECMs 2 and 4. A positive shock in the MPI produces price and exchange rate results which are consistent with a priori expectations from economic theory, and mixed liquidity effect and real output results. Thus, the MPI provides an important policy tool alternative for policymakers in small open economies to consider in the implementation of monetary policy.
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