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Can the North Korean regime survive Kim Jong Il?
( Ken E Gause ) 한국국방연구원 2008 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.20 No.2
This paper analyzes several leadership scenarios that might unfold in the wake of Kim Jong Il`s sudden death or removal from power. Over the past year, the North Korean leadership has undergone numerous changes as key figures in the regime passed away, were purged, or retired (actively or figuratively). Whether this constitutes a generational turnover inside the leadership is open to interpretation. In addition, key institutions, such as the National Defense Commission, have been reconfigured in what appears to some as a step toward preparing the regime for the eventual post-Kim succession. At the same time, the regime is fraught with competing individuals and institutions that might play a role in determining the new leadership configuration. Besides examining the most popular scenario, dynastic succession, this paper examines the possibility of other scenarios, such as the rise of a military strongman, warlordism, collective leadership, as well as the likelihood that the regime will collapse. This paper argues that unless Kim Jong Il`s prophesy to live to age 90 comes true, North Korea could face an uncertain, and potentially contentious, succession in the coming years. Predicting the outcome of this succession is not easy given the various factors that might be in play at the time of Kim`s demise or removal from the political scene. One thing that seems clear is that the 1994 succession following Kim Il Sung`s death holds few insights into the next succession. Only if Kim Jong Il were to live another 10 to 20 years is the likelihood of a smooth dynastic transfer of power a strong possibility.
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North Korean Political Dynamics of the Kim Jong-un Era
Ken E. Gause 통일연구원 2016 International journal of korean unification studie Vol.25 No.1
The political dynamics associated with the Kim Jong-un regime have taken a number of twists and turns since the beginning of the third generation leadership transition at the end of 2011. Beginning in 2010 at the Third Party Conference and carrying through the first two years of Kim Jong-un’s rule, the focus was on the revitalization of the Party apparatus. During this period, the purges of the high command began while at the same time the Party leadership bodies witnessed a dramatic growth in representation of military and security personnel. The fusing together of the military and Party leadership appeared to bring stability at the top echelons of the leadership structure — something the young leader would need as he worked to consolidate his power. The next phase of Kim Jong-un’s consolidation process began with the surprising purge and execution of Jang Song-taek at the end of 2013. On the surface, this move by Kim Jong-un appeared highly risky and premature. More recent disclosures suggest that Jang posed an existential threat to Kim’s ability to consolidate his power. Acting pragmatically and swiftly, Kim Jong-un removed the threat and began to transform the political dynamics inside the regime while at the same time assuming the role of the Control Tower. As a consequence, Kim’s personal apparatus has begun to grow and the Supreme Leader’s decision-making patterns and interaction with the inner circle of advisors has begun to reflect his evolving role within the regime. The Seventh Party Congress in May will likely serve as a coronation of the Kim Jong-un era. But whether he will be able to fully consolidate his power remains to be seen.
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