Irrational Exuberance, Overconfidence and Short- Termism : Knowledge-to-Action Asymmetry in Shipping Asset Management

Okan DURU 한국해운물류학회 2013 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.29 No.1

The aim of this paper is to investigate the irrational investor phenomenon and the disconnection of information, knowledge and practice. A growing attention is allocated for inconsistencies in neo-classical economic theory. Among the variety of debates, irrationality is the major discussion in the behavioural economics. Duru1) indicated the market anomalies and the particulars of the impatient capital drawbacks in the dry cargo shipping business. This paper presents a number of theoretical and empirical evidences for the irrational exuberance phenomenon and discusses the asset bubbles from the statistical significance. The empirical work is designed to investigate the asymmetry between orders and the freight market. In the last century, dry cargo freight market indicated similar business cycles including expansion,peak, downturn and recession. Although the business cycle framework is frequently discussed and its significance is cited by many scholars, there is an existing gap between the known facts and the business practice. The possible reasons of such anomalies are investigated in the context of behavioural economics and cognitive bias. Which factors distort the rational expectations and how this phenomenon appears in the business practice of shipping business are the key discussions of this paper.

Blocking the interactions between human ACE2 and coronavirus spike glycoprotein by selected drugs: a computational perspective

Chidi Edbert Duru,Haruna Isiyaku Umar Umar,Ijeoma Akunna Duru,Uchechi Emmanuela Enenebeaku,Lynda Chioma Ngozi-Olehi,Christian Ebere Enyoh 환경독성보건학회 2021 환경독성보건학회지 Vol.36 No.2

The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic with rapid rate of transmission and fatalities worldwide. Scientists have been investigating a host of drugs that may be rechanneled to fight this malaise. Thus, in this current computational study we carried out molecular docking experiments to assess the bridging potentials of some commercial drugs such as chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, ritonavir, nafamostat, camostat, famotidine, umifenovir, nitazoxanide, ivermectin, and fluvoxamine at the interface between human ACE2 and the coronavirus spike glycoprotein complex. This is aimed at ascertaining the ability of these drugs to bridge and prevent the complexing of these two proteins. The crystal structure of human ACE2 and the coronavirus spike glycoprotein complex was retrieved from protein database, while the selected drugs were retrieved from PubChem data base. The proteins and drugs were prepared for docking using Cresset Flare software. The docking was completed via AutoDock Vina module in Python Prescription software. The best hit drugs with each receptor were selected and their molecular interactions were analyzed using BIOVIA’s Discovery Studio 2020. The best hit compounds on the human ACE2 were the lopinavir (-10.1 kcal/mol), ritonavir (-8.9 kcal/mol), and nafamostat (-8.7 kcal/mol). Ivermectin, nafamostat, and camostat with binding energy values -9.0 kcal/mol, -7.8 kcal/mol, and -7.4 kcal/mol respectively were the hit drugs on the coronavirus spike glycoprotein. Nafamostat showed a dual bridging potential against ACE2 and spike glycoprotein, and could therefore be a promising lead compound in the prevention and control of this disease.

Computer-aided Degradation Susceptibility Study of Crude Oil Compounds at Bacillus subtilis Protein Target

Ijeoma Akunna Duru,Chidi Edbert Duru,Christian Ebere Enyoh,Haruna Isiyaku Umar 대한환경공학회 2023 Environmental Engineering Research Vol.28 No.3

Certain bacteria and fungi have been associated with the oxidative degradation of hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon derivatives in soil and water contaminated by crude oil spilling in these ecosystems. The binding affinity of hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon derivatives in a crude oil sample on the cysteine dioxygenase of Bacillus subtilis was studied using computational methods. The study was aimed to validate the claim of the efficient use of this organism in crude oil remediation and to determine the selectivity of the compounds in the crude by this bacterium enzyme. The compounds in the studied crude oil sample were identified by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Straight chain hydrocarbons were the least selected class of compounds with binding free energy ranging between −2.9 kcal/mol to −3.1 kcal/mol. The straight-chain hydrocarbon derivatives containing carbonyl and hydroxyl groups formed the middle class of compounds selected by the enzyme with binding free energy ranging between − 3.3 kcal/mol to −3.7 kcal/mol. The best binding free energies (−3.8 kcal/mol to −5.1 kcal/mol) were obtained with the poly-branched hydrocarbons and the cyclic compounds. The amounts of the poly-branched and cyclic compounds in the crude oil sample suggested that cysteine dioxygenase of B. subtilis would show about 28 % efficiency in the bioremediation of environments polluted by crude oil of this composition.

The Effect of Workplace Bullying Perception on Psychological Symptoms: A Structural Equation Approach

Duru, Pinar,Ocaktan, Mine Esin,Celen, Umit,Orsal, Ozlem Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute 2018 Safety and health at work Vol.9 No.2

Background: The aims of this study were to determine the extent of workplace bullying perceptions among the employees of a Faculty of Medicine, evaluating the variables considered to be associated, and determining the effect of workplace bullying perceptions on their psychological symptoms evaluated by the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI). Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed involving 355 (88.75%) employees. Results: Levels of perceived workplace bullying were found to increase with the increasing scores for BSI and BSI sub-dimensions of anxiety, depression, negative self, somatization, and hostility (all p < 0.001). One point increase in the workplace bullying perception score was associated with a 0.47 point increase in psychological symptoms evaluated by BSI. Moreover, the workplace bullying perception scores were most strongly affected by the scores of anxiety, negative self, depression, hostility, and somatization (all p < 0.05). Conclusion: The present results revealed that young individuals, divorced individuals, faculty members, and individuals with a chronic disease had the greatest workplace bullying perceptions with our study population. Additionally, the BSI, anxiety, depression, negative self, somatization, and hostility scores of the individuals with high levels of workplace bullying perceptions were also high.

Predictability of second-hand bulk carriers with a novel hybrid algorithm

Duru Okan,Gulay Emrah,Girgin Sinem Celik 한국해운물류학회 2021 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.37 No.4

This paper investigates the predictability of the asset prices of commodity transport (i.e. dry bulk carriers)by testing the shipping Q index as a leading indicator. We employ a comprehensive back-testing proce-dure with a broad spectrum of benchmark simulations. The shipping Q index (an adaptation of Tobin’s Qindex) has been introduced to benchmark models to observe predictive gain and interpret predictabilityfeatures. This study presents a novel hybrid model to forecast time series data. The forecasting abilityof the proposed hybrid algorithm is compared to specific univariate time series models, dynamic mod-els, nonlinear models, and widely used hybrid models in the literature. The findings document that notonly the proposed hybrid model performs better than the other competitive models in terms of hold outsample forecasting, but also using the shipping Q index improves the forecast accuracy by remarkablyreducing forecasting error.

Judgemental Forecasting in the Dry Bulk Shipping Business: Statistical vs. Judgemental Approach

Okan Duru,Shigeru YOSHIDA 한국해운물류학회 2009 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.25 No.2

This paper investigates the accuracy of judgmental forecasting methods for dry bulk freight market. Judgmental forecasting is a method that implements the purely judgmental aspects of a system. The research investigates judgmental forecasting for the Baltic Dry Index, and compares it with statistical extrapolation methods. Post-sample forecasting accuracy indicates the superiority of the proposed approach over the conventional statistical methods. Empirical studies are performed with an expert group and the accuracy of judgmental point estimates is compared with exponential smoothing, the X12 ARIMA, and the TRAMO/SEATS algorithms. The results of expert predictions outperformed traditional time-series methods.

Long Term Freight Market Index and Inferences

Okan DURU,Shigeru Yoshida 한국해운물류학회 2011 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.27 No.3

This paper proposes to establish a long term shipping freight index for dry cargo transportation and investigates its particulars among the cyclic fluctuations. Many scholars investigated dry cargo shipping markets and some of them attempted to construct a composite index of freight rates. Although, several critiques are indicated about the method of composition, these indices depicted long term movements in general. This paper also presents models for long term freight rates and seaborne trade with the recent data. A novel contribution is derived from using life expectancy as a long-run leading indicator.

La transmission en situation interculturelle, porteuse de sens, de performance et de mobilité

Fabrice Duru 고려대학교 응용문화연구소 2014 에피스테메 Vol.0 No.12

Cultural transmission, more than a cultural material brought in culturalheritage to a community which recognizes itself through what it conveyssuch as a deep sense of a identity structuring, can be lived as anexchange of mutual enrichment within a space where interact people andvalues, the cross-cultural space. In this situation where the individualstrying to exchange and to bloom mutually must go beyond the constraintsof personal blockings or attitudes of foreign rejection, the internationalstudents represent a situation prone population to this generous anddynamic interface. Among this population, the original management sciencestudents in sub-Saharan Africa and China appear to be particularlysensitive to the issue of intercultural transmission and its implementationin everyday life. The relationship to the nature and the place of theinvisible world in explanation of any human action provides its involvementin cross-cultural situations. Dynamics allows players to set up a gamewithin which the culture develops correlation links with the changingenvironment and sustainable cultural structure capacities. In this unstablereality, the cultural openness becomes the condition for effective cross-cultural transmission and successful professional integration. Brakesare overtaken with the emergence of distinctive intercultural skills. Lifeskills related to your real-life experience, which draw from the family,social experience and the cultural referents act as so many factors ofperformance, employability and renewed mobility.

Bivariate Long Term Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting of Dry Cargo Freight Rates

Okan DURU,에므라 블룻,요시다 시게루 한국해운물류학회 2010 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.26 No.2

This paper proposes a bivariate long term fuzzy inference system for time series forecasting task in the eld of freight market. Fuzzy time series methods are applied by many scholars and it is broadly accepted pattern recognition and forecasting tool. Previous studies mainly establish algorithms for high requency time series data such as daily and monthly intervals. The proposed model performs similar techniques for long term annual base data and also extends the conventional method with multi-variate heuristic algorithm. Empirical work is accomplished on shipping freight rate data and life expectancy is used as a leading indicator in the bivariate fuzzy time series model.

Developing a comprehensive approach to port performance assessment

Okan DURU,Cassia B. Galvao,Joan MILESKI,Leo Tadeu Robles,Amir Gharehgozli 한국해운물류학회 2020 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.36 No.4

This paper investigates the port performance assessment and proposes a comprehensive framework with various perspectives as well as priority distributions of stakeholders* expectations in port business and operations. One fundamental questions in port performance studies is how to evaluate and quantify intangible indicators on performance. There are definitely inputs and outputs, which may be measured and evaluated through conventional instruments. However, each instrument deals with a particular aspect of whole performance problem (e.g. port efficiency, port productivity,), and many of these instruments are limited to ‘measurable’ data on port management and operations. In this paper, these two common problems are put under the scope, and a comprehensive port performance assessment scheme is established by gathering various perspectives. Quality function deployment (QFD) approach is preferred to formulize the problem and define priority ratings of expectations by each stakeholder in the port domain. The framework can contribute to a broader understanding of ports as business units, its development drivers and interaction with community neighbors, and to shed light to port performance assessment considering both public and private entities.