불확실성, 혼돈 그리고 환경정책 : 시화호 매립사례를 중심으로 In Case of Shiwha Reservoir and Watershed Development

사득환 한국정책학회 2003 韓國政策學會報 Vol.12 No.1

오늘날 정부는 증대하는 불화실성과 혼돈, 그리고 복잡성을 관리하면서 정책을 선택해야하는 매우 어려운 상황에 직면해 있다. 과거에 경험해 보지 못했던 새로운 정책환경, 곧 '혼돈상황'이 펼쳐지면서 이러한 혼돈에 대한 정책적 대응을 요구하고 있다. 본 논문은 불확실성과 혼돈상황에서 정부의 어떠한 정치적·정책적 선택이 환경정책의 실패를 초래하였으며, 또한 그러한 실패의 원인은 어디에 있는가를 시론적인 차원에서 규명하고 있다. 이를 위해 불확실성과 혼돈상황에 적합한 정책선택모형으로써 적응모형(adaptive model)을 개발하고, 이를 시화호 매립사업에 적용·분석하였다. 분석결과 시화호 매립사업은 '환경정책의 진화적 적응의 실패'로 요약할 수 있고. 이 사업은 적절한 공진화과정을 거치지 못하고 엄청난 요동(fluctuations)을 치면서 걷잡을 수 없이 증폭되다가 궁극적으로 정책실패(policy failure)라는 새로운 패턴과 질서로 자리잡은 것으로 드러났다. 구체적으로 시화호 매립사업의 실패는 i) 정확한 사전예측의 결여, ii) 경직된자기조직화, iii) 불균형적인 권력관계와 개발논리, iv) 정책학습과 피드백(feedback)의 부재가 그 주된 원인인 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 시화호 매립사례에서 보듯이, 오늘날의 정책담당자들은 불확실성과 혼돈에 대한 주의깊은 관리(Management)가 매우 절실하다는 것을 보여주고 있다. This paper explores the results of policy from political and policy decisions of the government in the circumstances of uncertainty, complexity and non-linearity, what is called, chaotic situations. 1 employed' adaptive model' as a theoretical tool and applied this model to the case of Shiwha Reservoir and Watershed Development. The adaptive model as a principle of decision making strives for the norm of positive sum from multi-participants in order to minimize the policy failure under the dynamic uncertainty and chaos It is highly relevance in a situation of uncertainty and chaos in that this model regards the policy as a process of creating new pattern of policy through ceaseless interactions with a given environment. I draw a conclusion that the cause of policy failure is originated from 'the lack of evolutional adaptation' in the process of Shiwha Reservoir and Watershed Development. In view point of adaptive model, the most noticeable factors in the policy failure is as follows; first, the lack of precise prediction. second the constraints in the joint-decision making of participants, third, unequitable power relations and development-oriented theorem, fourth, the lack of policy learning and feedback. From the perspective of these, the adaptive model not only complements the theoretical limits of the traditional policy making models, like rational model, incremental model, garbage can model but sometimes shows as explanatory adequacy overcoming that models.

밭 토양으로부터 아질산(N₂O)기체의 배출량 측정과 배출특성

김득수,오진만 한국대기환경학회 2003 한국대기환경학회지 Vol.19 No.5

A clo\crl chamber system was used for measuring N₂O fluxes from an agriculturally managed upland soil in Kunsan during the growing season from May to July 2002. It is known that soil is one dominant source of atmospheric N₂O, contributing to about 57% (9 Tgy^(-1)) ol' the total annual global emission. Hence, its increasing emissions and concentrations are largely associated with agricultural activities. In order to elucidate characteristics of soil nitrogen emissions from intensively managed agricultural soils and to understand the roles of soil parameter (soil moisture, soil pH. soil temperature. and soil nitrogen) In the gas emission, N₂O soil emissions were measured at every hour during the experimental period 12 days). Soil N₂O fluxes were calculated based on changes of N₂O concentrations measured inside a closed chamber at every hour. 'The analysis of N₂O was made by using a Gas Chromatography (equipped with Electron Capture Detector). Soil parameters at sampling plots were also analyzed. Monthly averaged N₂O fluxes during May. June, and July were 0.14, 0.05, and 0.13mg-N₂O m^(-2)h^(-1), respectively. Soil temperature and soil pH did not significantly vary over the experimental period; soil temperatures ranged from I2~25°C. and soil pH ranged 4.56~4.75. However, soil moisture varied significantly from 32% to 56% in WFPS. Relationships between soil parameters and N₂O fluxes exhibited positive linear relationships. Strong positive correlation (R²=0.57, P<0.0001) war found between N₂O flux and sil moisture. It suggests, that soil moisture has affected strongly soil N₂O emissions during the experimental periods, while other parameters have remained relatively at constant levels. N₂O flux from agricultural soils was significant and should be taken account for the national emission inventory.

콘덴서제조공장의 전력부하설비의 고조파에 관한 연구

김득중,심재명,장석구 大田産業大學校 2002 한밭대학교 논문집 Vol.19 No.-

Lately power semiconductors such as thyristor devices is widely used in electric power load installation. The use power semiconductors is easy to be a major cause of harmonics generation. In this paper, voltage and current harmonics is to be mesured in twenty places which is selected from power receiving board of the capacitor mannufactory. The results is analysised by experimental observation. According to the analysis contents, total voltage harmonics occured in the 22.9kv y-connection is to be proved within harmonics international standard but current harmonics was approached to standard upper limits line. The harmonics incoming through the distribution line by harmonics of the near factory is measured at the measurement factory. In this paper, the countermeasure to decrease harmonics generation quantity is considered through the theoretical survey.

하이브리드 외부가압 공기베어링에서 노즐 위치에 따른 부하지지력 특성

이득우,이종렬,황성철,이준석 한국공작기계학회 2000 한국공작기계학회 추계학술대회논문집 Vol.2000 No.-

Externally pressurized air journal bearing has been widely used in high-speed spindle system and precision machinery because of its characteristics such as substantially low frictional loss, low heat generation and averaging effect leading better running accuracy. But air journal bearing have a disadvantage of the low load capacity due to the low viscosity. In this paper. The air journal bearing design to overcome the defects of air bearing such as low stiffness and dimping coefficients was investigated theoretically.

甲骨片數에 關한 硏究 : 統計分析을 中心으로 with emphasis on statistical analysis

金得洙 명지대학교 인문과학연구소 1987 인문과학연구논총 Vol.4 No.-

Editing of inscription on bones and tortoise carapaces refers specifically to the written letters on the bone and tortoise carapaces. However, there are many inscriptions which are not in a written letter form and this leads to confusions. In order to pursue a systematic and scientific study, there is a need to focus on the statistical number of inscription on bones and tortoise carapaces as well as its scattered locations. In other words, the actual number of inscriptions and the scattered location of it in mainland China has been researched. A significant problem dealing with inscription on bones and tortoise carapaces lies on the question of why fortune tellers have used tortoise carapaces and animal bones to write down the fortune results and on top of the inscriptions, why they have painted red or browncolors. Inscription on bones and tortoise carapaces in China and abroad is accurately 96,118, approximately a little less than one hundred thousand. The fortune telling tradition has been practiced since the ancient times and the holy kings have had divine position which were atually proved by fortune telling. The statistical analysis has been made with the books written by Tung, Tsuo pin (董作賓) and Hu Hou Hsu¨an(胡厚宣). Finally, I wished to establish a scientific research procedure along with an accurate preservation of the discovered inscription on bones and tortoise carapaces.

SAVINGS SUPPRESSION 技法에 依한 輸送計劃에 關한 硏究

金得久 德成女子大學校 1980 德成女大論文集 Vol.9 No.-

The primary objective of this study was to review the literature and existing models in the area of transportation problems, and then to design a model based upon the vehicle dispatching algorithm which was originally developed by Holmes & Parker to test a physical distribution system of petroleum product. The model in the study was implemented to find an optimum transportation system which can provide a high customer service at the shortest transportation distance. The major significant characteristic of the approach used in the study is to incorporate the transportation function of the system into the inventory control in such a way that the distribution function of the firm can be analysed on a tatal basis. According to the empirical implementation result of the model, about 9.3% of total transportation distance was decreased relative to present order system. Further study is desirable to develop a model involving transportation cost, distance, time simultaneously.

공업단지 내와 인근 풍하지점의 주요 VOCs 성분별 농도측정 및 분석

김득수,양고수,박비오 7개 국립대학교 환경연구논문집 공동발행 위원회 2005 공업기술연구 Vol.5 No.-

It has been knoun that many kinds of VOC(volatile organic compound) and odorous compound's sources are in the urban and industrial areas and intensify their emissions into the atmoshere. These VOCs have adverse effects in human health and trees directly, and VOCs have an important role in production of the photochemical smog such as ozone and fine particles, so they decrease visibility and deteriorate the urban air quality as well. Specifically, in urban atmosphere, hydroxy radicals(OH) are produced largely by chemical reactions involving the VOCs emitted from vehicles. The OH promote the photochemical reactions and makes more secondary pollutants into the atmosphere. It will be necessary to make proper management plans to preserve the air quality in good level for the peoples. In order to make these plans, source information and detail emission inventory of the city and near industrial areas should be given. However, lack of the source measurements data makes us more difficult to complete the source inventory. VOC source inventory could be utilized for the feasibility study to estimate the contribution of VOC sources presenting to the receptor such as residential area. It may give policy maker and idea how to control the air quality, and improve their social environment in the area. This study shows preliminary data that measured VOC concentrations from the local industrial areas in Jeonju during from May to October 2005. The samples from the 2 receptor sites (one is at center of the industrial area and the other site is at distance residential area dounwind from the center) were collected and analyzed for the comparison to source concentration. The mass contributions of the speciated VOC from the different sources and ambient (2 receptors) were presented and discussed.

매복 및 변위된 상악 견치의 치료 증례

박득희,이광희 大韓小兒齒科學會 1993 大韓小兒齒科學會誌 Vol.20 No.2

The impacted maxillary canine has many problem im making a diagnosis and treatment plan in dental clinics. In treating impacted maxillary canine, the etiology of the problem must be considered. There are various orthodontic methods of bringing impacted maxillary canine to the line of occlusion. Two cases mentioned here used elastic traction and direct bonding system after surgical exposure to bring the impacted maxillary canine into their correct position in the arch. For the successful treatment, surgical exposure should avoid loss of attached gingiva, local inflammation and excessive othodontic force also should be avoided.

申骨文의 硏究 : 發展段階의 考釋을 中心으로

金得洙 명지대학교 인문과학연구소 1997 인문과학연구논총 Vol.16 No.-

Closed chamber를 이용한 토양 N₂O배출량과 주요 토양 인자들과의 상관성

김득수,오진만 한국대기환경학회 2004 한국대기환경학회지 Vol.20 No.6

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) has been known as an Important trace gas due to the greenhouse gas and the major source of stratospheric oxide of nitrogen (NO) Sails the major source of N₂O in nature The physicochemical characteristics of soils affect the emission of N₂O from soil These physicochemical parameters are soil temperature, soil temperature, and Soli N content. Since these parameters are correlated to the flux of N₂O from soil individually and compositely, there still remain many unknowns 10 the mechanism to produce N₂O in soil and the roles of, such physicochemical parameters which affect the soil N₂O emission Soil N₂O fluxes were measured at different level In water filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature and soil N contents from the same amounts of soils which were sampled from agriculturally managed upland field In a depth of ~30cm at Kunsan The soil N₂O flux measurements were conducted In a laboratory with a closed flux chamber system The optimum soil moisture and soli temperature were observed at 60% of WFPS and ~l3°C The sod N₂O flux increased as soil N contents increases during the whole experimental hours (up to 48 hours) However, average N₂O flux decreased after ~30 hours when organic carbon was mixed with nitrogen In the sample soils It is suggested that organic carbon could be Important for the emission of N₂O, and that the ratio of N to C needs to be identified in the process of N₂O soil emission.