Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

Lee, Jae-Bum,Cha, Jun-Seok,Hong, Sung-Chul,Choi, Jin-Young,Myoung, Ji-Su,Park, Rokjin J.,Woo, Jung-Hun,Ho, Changhoi,Han, Jin-Seok,Song, Chang-Keun Elsevier 2015 Atmospheric environment Vol.106 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global–regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996–2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R<SUP>2</SUP> values (0.4–0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016–2025 (the 2020s), 2046–2055 (the 2050s), and 2091–2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2–8 ppb, −3 to 8 ppb, and −7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Change in ozone level is determined by the combination of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC emissions. </LI> <LI> Ozone level over East Asia would get worse in the near future (the 2020s) than far future. </LI> <LI> A high-concentration event generally increases and more frequently occurs in the future. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developing country depends more on emissions change. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developed country depends more on climate change. </LI> </UL> </P>

튀니지 시민혁명 10주년 이후 국민들의 의식변화에 대한 고찰

장훈태 부산외국어대학교 아프리카연구센터 2021 아프리카학 연구 Vol.1 No.1

In December 2010, the democratization wind of Tunisia which was triggered by burning himself of a young man Muhammad Bouazizi, led the citizens of Tunisia to a successful Jasmine Revolution which resulted in the resignation of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The democratization movement in Tunisia began with high unemployment, poverty, despotism, authoritarianism and dictatorship. After the democratization movement in Tunisia, the nation and the people began to change. At the end of 2010, the wave of civil revolution that began in Tunisia gave courage to those who were oppressed by fear. At the same time it rapidly spread to the Middle East and North Africa and media and citizens from all over the world cheered for them. Their anti-government revolution spread to a wide range of civil movements through the continuation of the strike participation movement, demonstrations, marches and large-scale gatherings as well as organizations and communication through social media and awareness-raising, leading to the resignation of long-term dictatorships and regime change. It came to be called a revolution. Tunisia young people longed for freedom from political and economic poverty, oppression and inequality. Young people deprived of freedom and certain peoples wished for a change in society, and were excited by the anticipation that something would change. However 10 years after the democratization revolution took place in Tunisia, it is difficult to find democracy in Tunisia just as it is hard to find democracy in most countries. Even today Tunisia is facing a very severe economic crisis and the gap between the rich and the poor. In a situation where people’s relative poverty, continued young people unemployment, political unrest and authoritarianism are prevailing. People are voicing that the politics and economy have deteriorated. On the 10th anniversary of the democratization revolution, the task remains whether authoritarianism will be further strengthened in North Africa and other Middle Eastern countries or will the second spring of Tunisia begin? In this situation it is of great significance to study the 10th anniversary of the Tunisian democratization revolution and the Tunisian society in North Africa. This thesis pursues to explore the democratization revolution in Tunisia and the Arab region, the starting point of the revolution and the phenomenon and future of Tunisia after the democratization revolution. Today, Tunisia is not only in international difficulties but also the conflict between tribes within Tunisia, between religious and non-religious forces, between religions and incongruity between settlers and migrants, relative deprivation, patriarchal tribalism and the doctrine of any one religion. These things are seriously intertwined. If a national consensus is reached to overcome this, Tunisia can become a democratic nation that is far more free than predicted and the citizens of Tunisia can enjoy a human life. Currently the world is struggling with COVID-19 but the positive impact of the democratic development of Tunisia’s democratization revolution will brighten the future of Tunisia. [Key words: Tunisian democratization revolution, democracy, consciousness change, economy and poverty, quality of life, party politics]

아프리카 사회통합의 저해 요인에 대한 함의 -아프리카 과거, 현재, 미래에 대한 고찰-

장훈태(Chang, Hun Tae) 한국아프리카학회 2019 한국아프리카학회지 Vol.58 No.-

아프리카 대륙은 전 세계적으로 천연자원과 인구 모두가 풍부한 대륙이다. 그러나 세계에서 가장 가난한 곳, 기후변화로 인한 고통을 겪는 곳이라는 인상을 지우지 못하고 있다. 역사적으로 아프리카는 숱한 내전과 전쟁 그리고 식민 지배를 겪었고, 이러한 역사로 인해 희망이 사라진 것처럼 보인다. 아프리카 정권의 부패는 점점 더 심해지고 있으며, 국민은 부패로 인해 지쳐 있는 상황이다. 이러한 상황에서 아프리카의 현재 상황에 대한 원인과 아프리카의 미래를 변화시킬 방법에 대해 살펴보고, 이를 토대로 아프리카의 미래에 대해 함의하고자 한다. 아프리카 대륙에는 3천여 개 이상의 종족이 어울려 살고 있으며, 각 종족은 다양성과 동질성을 가진 자신들만의 종족문화를 가지고 있다. 이러한 아프리카 종족 사회에 16세기 무렵부터 불어 닥친 서구의 문화 침탈과 변혁은 종족 사회에 가장 큰 충격으로 다가왔다. 서구 열강들이 아프리카를 점령하여 식민 통치를 하는 동안 아프리카 대륙은 많은 고통을 겪어야만 했다. 아프리카는 가난, 할례, 피부색에 대한 차별 등 커다란 아픔을 겪고 있다. 아프리카의 아픔이 발생하는 원인은 갈등에서 비롯된다. 이 갈등으로 인해 생긴 ‘마음의 장벽’은 아프리카 사회가 통합될 수 없는 원인이라 할 수 있다. 오늘의 아프리카 사회가 통합되지 않고 끊임없는 종족 갈등과 테러, 폭력이 나타나는 것은 소득과 부의 양극화가 존재하기 때문이다. 정치적‧사회적‧경제적 박탈감에서 비롯되는 사회적 격차와 분열은 종족주의와 반정부운동을 표방하는 테러와 폭력을 불러오고 있다. 아프리카의 밝은 미래 전망을 위해서는 아프리카 54개국의 정치 지도자들이 ‘현실 위기’에 대한 정확하고 정직한 인식을 가지는 것으로부터 시작해야 한다. 그리고 현재의 문제에 대한 책임을 보다 깊이 인정하고, 올바른 해결책의 선택을 통해 긍정적인 변화발전을 모색해야 한다. 이 같은 현실에서는 이데올로기적인 정치구조와 체계가 아닌 정부와 의회의 정치적 의지, 분열된 사회의 통합능력, 국민의 이익을 위한 정책을 실행하려는 의지가 중요하다. 2050년도의 아프리카가 어떤 모습으로 변화하고 발전할 것인가를 예상하고 대비책을 세우는 것은 매우 중요하다. 이때 다른 국가들의 우수한 사례를 참고하는 것도 좋은 방법이 될 수 있을 것이다. 그러나 이러한 대비책들이 효과적으로 운영되기 위해서는 평등, 사회적 서열의식의 파괴, 종족 우월주의 파괴 등 사회 통합이 전제되어야 한다. 따라서 통합된 사회를 구현하는 것이야말로 아프리카의 핵심적인 장기 과제가 되어야 한다. The African continent is the rich in both natural resources and population around the world. However, it is the world’s poorest place and also the one that suffers from climate change. From a historical perspective, Africa has suffered numerous civil wars, wars, and colonial rule, and it seems to have been disappeared hope because of this history. Today, Africa is increasingly corrupt of government, and its people are tired of it. So this paper will look at the causes of the current situation in Africa and how to change the future of Africa, and see the future of Africa based on it. There are more than 3,000 tribes in the African continent, and each tribe has its own ethnic culture having diversity and homogeneity. Western cultural invasions and transformations that have occurred in these African tribal societies since the 16th century have come as the biggest shock to ethnic communities. While the Western powers occupied Africa and colonized it, the African continent had to suffer a lot. In addition, Africa suffers greatly from poverty, circumcision and discrimination against skin color. Africa’s pain causes from conflict. The ‘heart barrier’ created by this conflict is why African society can not be together. Why today’s African society is not integrated, and constant ethnic conflicts, terrorism and violence emerge is because there is a polarization of income and wealth. Social gaps and divisions arising from the sense of political, social and economic deprivation have led to terrorism and violence advocating the pro-democracy and anti-government movements. For the bright future prospects of Africa, Political leaders in Africa 54 countries need to start to have accurate and honest perception about ‘real crisis.’ They also should more deeply acknowledge responsibility for current problems, and seek for the positive changes and development through choosing the right solution. Above all, in this reality, political will of the government and parliament, integrative capacity for a divided society, and the will to carry out policies for the interests of the people are important not ideological political structure and the system. It is very important to predict the changes and development of Africa in 2050. It would be a good way to refer to the best examples of other countries for this. In order for these provisions to operate effectively, however, social integration must be pre-requisite: equality, the destruction of social hierarchy and the destruction of ethnic chauvinism. Therefore, implementing an integrated society should be a key long-term challenge for Africa.

우리나라의 將來 人口展望과 「0」成長人口推計

金泰憲(Tai-Hun Kim),張英植(Young-Sik Chang) 한국인구학회 1994 한국인구학 Vol.17 No.1

Since 1962, the population growth control has been one of the most important aims in the 5-Year Socioeconomic Development Plans of Korea. The annual population growth rate has dropped to less than 1 percent in 1990 from about 3 percents in 1960s, and projected to reach to 「0」 percent in 2021. From 2021, Korean population will decrease and the age structure will be distorted because birth rate will drop suddenly and continuously. Thus, we can consider 「0」 growth population for minimizing the problems on the decreasing population. To discuss the problems caused from the changes of population size and age-sex composition, we projected three kinds of population including two kinds of 「0」 growth population under different assumptions. The first is the population which extended the projection of National Statistical Office up to 2090. Because the TFR is assumed and fixed as low as 1.63 after 1990, the population growth rate will be under 「0」 in 2021 and drop by about 1 percent every year from around 2050. This population trend results to old age population : 38.1 of old-age dependency ratio and 46.5 years of median age. The second is the population which the size in 2021 projected by the NOS continues after 2021. To change over from the decreasing population after 2021 to the 「0」 growth one, the TFR should be increased up to over 3.0 in 2040-2050, which fertility level would be too high to be accepted. The third is the population which approaches to the 「0」 growth population under the assumptions that the TFR increases from 1.63 to 2.1 in the period of 2010-2030 and then the same level continues. Although the maximum population size reaches 51,503 thousand persons, the population will approach to the stationary population with about 42.4 million persons around 2090. In this projected population there is no more serious problems on population composition, on the rapid decrease of population, and on the increase TFR level. When the 「0」 growth population continues the problems of over population caused by the population increase would be minimized, and the problems of unusual age composition resulted from the population decrease would not be found any more. Furthermore, when the changes of population size and composition is continuing slowly, the factors of population would effect moderately to socioeconomic development and help social changes. Therefore, with the attention of the present population changes, we should adapt new and detailde population policy which is able to get the 「0」 growth population.

가스성분 및 용접와이어의 변화에 따른 SS400소재의 CO₂용접에서 용접부의 상태변화 고찰

김법헌(Bub-Hun Kim),김원일(Won-Il Kim),최창(Chang Choi),박용환(Yong-Hwan Park) 한국기계가공학회 2012 한국기계가공학회지 Vol.11 No.5

On this study, CO₂ gas, net of Ar gas, and mixed gas in solid wire(AWS ER 70S-6) and flux cored wire(AWS E71T-1) were used to weld on Mild steel(SS400). After the progress, the status changes of the welds in Mild steel(SS400) were investigated with compositional changes. For stable experiments, welding was conducted using the automatic feeder. Radiation testing, hardness testing, chemical composition analysis and penetrated cross-section were measured. Through these experiments, shapes of penetrated cross-section, chemical composition changes, and weld defects according to the variation of welding gas were known. Weld defects and weld cross-sectional shapes by the variation of the welding voltage were also detected.

가강수량의 변화패턴과 기후인자와의 상관성 분석

이다래 ( Darae Lee ),한경수 ( Kyung Soo Han ),권채영 ( Chaeyoung Kwon ),이경상 ( Kyeong Sang Lee ),서민지 ( Minji Seo ),최성원 ( Sungwon Choi ),성노훈 ( Noh Hun Seong ),이창석 ( Chang Suk Lee ) 대한원격탐사학회 2016 大韓遠隔探査學會誌 Vol.32 No.3

수증기는 지구 장파 복사에너지의 주요 흡수인자이다. 따라서 수증기량의 변화를 모니터링하고 변화의 원인을 세밀하게 조사하는 것은 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 위성관측에 의해 얻어지는 Total Precipitable Water (TPW)자료를 사용하여 가강수량의 변화패턴을 모니터링 하고자 한다. 또한 기후인자들 중 수증기를 통해 생성되어 수증기의 변화패턴을 분석하는데 있어 중요한 역할을 하는 강수량과 다른 기후인 자들에 비해 비교적 주기적으로 나타나는 엘니뇨를 통해 가강수량의 변화패턴과 기후인자와의 상관성분석을 실시하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 TERRA/AQUA 위성의 Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroadiometer (MODIS) 센서를 통해 관측된 TPW의 장기적인 변화와 한반도 중남부지방의 강수량변화를 정량적으로 분석 하고, 이들의 관계를 엘니뇨와 함께 비교하였다. 이를 통해 엘니뇨의 발생이 한반도 중남부지방의 강수량과 TPW의 변화에 영향을 주고 있는 지에 대해 조사하고자 한다. 먼저, 시계열 분석을 통해 TPW와 중남부지방 강수량의 변화를 정량적으로 산출하고 anomaly분석을 통해 이들의 변화를 세밀하게 분석한 결과 서로 반대 의 양상을 띠는 부분이 발견되어 엘니뇨의 anomaly분석결과와 비교하였다. 그 결과 대부분 같은 양상을 띠고 있던 TPW와 강수량이 엘니뇨가 발생한 후 서로 반대의 양상을 띠는 것을 확인하였다. Water vapor is main absorption factor of outgoing longwave radiation. So, it is essential to monitoring the changes in the amount of water vapor and to understanding the causes of such changes. In this study, we monitor temporal variability of Total Precipitable Water (TPW) which observed by satellite. Among climate variables, precipitation play an important part to analyze temporal variability of water vapor because it is produced by water vapor. And El Nino is one of climate variables which appear regularly in comparison with the others. Through them, we analyze relationship between temporal variability of TPW and climate variable. In this study, we analyzed long-term change of TPW from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroadiometer (MODIS) data and change of precipitation in middle area of Korea peninsula quantitatively. After these analysis, we compared relation of TPW and precipitation with El Nino. The aim of study is to research El Nino has an impact on TPW and precipitation change in middle area of Korea peninsula. First of all, we calculated TPW and precipitation from time series analysis quantitatively, and anomaly analysis is performed to analyze their correlation. As a result, TPW and precipitation has correlation mostly but the part had inverse correlation was found. This was compared with El Nino of anomaly results. As a result, TPW and precipitation had inverse correlation after El Nino occurred. It was found that El Nino have a decisive effect on change of TPW and precipitation.

Graves 병 환자에서 항갑상선제 투여에 의한 TSH 수용체 항체의 변동에 관한 연구 : 치료 용량 및 기간에 따른 차이 및 임상상과의 관계 its relation to dose and duration of treatment~and clinical features

이문호,조보연,문대혁,고창순,민헌기,서교일 대한내과학회 1986 대한내과학회지 Vol.30 No.3

We undertook a prospective study of 59 patients with Graves' disease in order to clarify the influence of antithyroid drug on the immunological indices and to determine the association of the changes of TSH receptor antibodies activities with drug dosage, duration of treatment and clinical features according to mode of antitbyroid drugs treatment. Patients were divided into two groups. High dose group included 28 patients and conventional dose group 31 patients. We measured TBII activities, antimicrosomal antibodies, and the size of goiter every 3 months, comparing them with clinical features and laboratory findings. TBII activities declined from R months until 9 months following drug treatment. Therafter no significant change of TBII activities were observed. Antimicrosomal antibodies showed the same pattern of change. There was no statistically significant difference of declining rate of TBII activities, antimicrosomal antibodies, and reduction of size of thyroid between two treatment groups. TBII activities fell into normal range in 15 patients among those 44 patients who had been followed for more than 9 months (8 high dose group, 7 conventional dose group). In those 15 patients, TBII activities and frequency of exophthalmos were less than those whose TBII activity did not normalized. We conclude that TSH receptor antibodies activities and antithyroid autoantibodies are diminished by antithyroid drug treatment in patients with Graves disease and there is no relationship between dose of drug and declining of TBII activities. We suggest that changing levels of TBII activities might be secondary phenomenon which can be achieved by control of thyroid function by antithyroid drug rather than direct immunosuppressive effect of antithyroid drug per se.

土性에 따른 煙草植物의 養分吸收의 變化

陸昌洙,洪淳達,金雄柱,鄭勳采 충북대학교 엽연초연구소 1983 煙草硏究 Vol.10 No.-

Experiment was conducted to investigate the relation of growth characteristics, nutrient amount absorbed by tobacco plant, chemical components, changes of NH4 -N and NO3-N in the soil, yield, quality and price per 10a. Nc2326 and Burley 21-tobacco plant grew in sandy loam and clay loam by treated different levels of nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium fertilizers. the results were summarized as follows. 1.The plant height, length and width of the largest leaf, fresh weight and dry weight of tobacco leaves and stem of NC2326 and Burley21 were greater in clay loam than those in the sandy loam during growing. 2.The amount of nitrogen and phosphorous in tobacco leaves and stem absorbed by NC 2326 grown in clay loam were increased by 60days after transplanting, and then decreased, and amount absorbed by Burley 21 increased continuously in sandy loam and clay loam till the harvesting time. 3.The contents of potassium, calsium and magnesium in the leaves of NC 2326 and Burley 21 were increased continously during growing period and the amount of patassium uptake was greatest. 4.Total nitrogen, total alkaloid and reducing sugar in the dry leaves of NC 2326 and Burley 21 showed no differences between the plot of sandy loam and clay, but Burley 21 showed higher content of total nitrogen and alkaloid than NC2326. 5.Changes of NH4-N and NO3 -N in soil decreased gradually during growing period. Amount of NH4 -N in the plot of Burley 21 was higher than that in NC 2326 during glowing period. 6.The best yield was shown in the NC 2326 glowing in clay loam soil and quality was highest in the sandy loam. The highest price per 10a, 590, 400, was shown in clay loam with 10-10-20kg/10a fertilization.

A RADIOAUTOGRAPHIC STUDY OF POSTNATAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE TONGUE FOLLOWING 50FLUOROURACIL ADMINISTRATION IN MICE

Chang, Sang Hun 대한치과의사학회 1993 대한치과의사학회지 Vol.14 No.3

Pulmonary Inflammatory Pseudotumor with Solitary Plasmacytoma of Bone Mimicking Advanced Lung Cancer

( Chang Hoon Kim ),( Jae Seok Jeong ),( Yong Chul Lee ),( So Ri Kim ),( Yeong Hun Choe ),( Seung Yong Park ) 대한결핵 및 호흡기학회 2020 대한결핵 및 호흡기학회 추계학술대회 초록집 Vol.128 No.-

Lung cancer has been the most commonly diagnosed type of cancer and the leading cause of cancer related mortality in Korea and worldwide. Although it is fatal, most of the lung cancer patient are asymptomatic at the time of diagnosis. Therefore, radiologic screening by chest low-dose computerized tomography (LDCT) has been recommended by lung cancer specialists for early detection and improving survival. However, clinical suspicion of lung cancer by radiologic screening is quite challenging because of its high false positive rate. A wide range of benign pulmonary diseases could be misinterpreted as lung malignancy on LDCT, including infection, benign mass-forming lesion, and inflammatory changes. Therefore, physician should consider the possibility of the benign disease entities when radiologic features suggest lung malignancy. Herein, we report a case of a 50-year-old man presenting a 4.5-cm lung mass in the right upper lobe with solitary osteolytic lesion of the right 8th rib. Under the suspicion of metastatic lung cancer, the lung mass and the right 8th rib were surgically resected for the diagnostic and curative purpose. After the tissue biopsy, unexpectedly, the lung mass was diagnosed as inflammatory pseudotumor. Furthermore, histopathology of the resected rib showed solitary plasmacytoma of the bone. Our experience highlights the importance of clinical suspicion that in patients with radiologic features compatible to advanced lung cancer could be caused by coexistence of unrelated two uncommon disease entities, which can be completely treatable with surgical resection.