Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Han Suk-ho,Kim Jeong-seung,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change. Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO). An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative). In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs. Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such fie

기후변화가 농업부문에 미치는 경제적 영향 분석

김창길(Chang-Gil Kim),이상민(Sang-Min Lee) 한국농업경제학회 2009 農業經濟硏究 Vol.50 No.2

This paper measures economic impact of climate change on crop farming in Korea. Using cross-sectional data on climate, soil, farmland prices, and other economic and geophysical data, we employ a Ricardian approach to measure the relationship between climate and the farmland value. The study carries out a marginal impact analysis of increasing temperature and changing precipitation. The empirical analysis reveals that a rise of 1℃ in the annual average temperature (12.4℃ ) brought down the price of farmland per ha by approximately KRW 14.5~19.2 million, equivalent to a 5.7~7.5% drop in the average farmland price. On the other hand, an increase of 1㎜ in the monthly average precipitation (110.8㎜) was estimated to increase the farmland price per ha by KRW 330~360 thousand. In general, the results show that the temperature component of global warming is much important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring and early warn-ing system of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change.

4분과 : 미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 우리나라 소나무 임부의 재적 추정

김문일 ( Moon Il Kim ),이우균 ( Woo Kyun Lee ),( Gui Shan Gui ),( Hang Nan Yu ),최솔이 ( Sol E Choi ),김창길 ( Chang Gil Kim ),권태성 한국임학회 2014 한국산림과학회지 Vol.103 No.1

본 연구는 우리나라 주요 수종인 소나무림을 대상으로 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 시나리오에 따른 임목 재적의 시·공간적 변이를 예측하기 위해 수행되었다. 전국 규모의 예측을 위해 5차임상도와 국가산림자원조사 자료를 이용하였으며, 기후와 공간의 변이가 임목 생장에 미치는 영향을 반영하기 위해 기상 및 지형인자를 반영한 생장모형을 적용하였다. 모형의 검증을 위해 시, 도별 산림통계와 모형 결과를 비교한 결과, 비교적 높은 적합도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 기후변화를 고려하였을 때, 소나무림의 임분 재적은 현재 131 m3/ha에서2050년에는 212.42 m3/ha까지 증가 할 것으로 예측되었으며, 현재의 기후가 유지될 경우에는 221.92 m3/ha까지 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 기후변화의 영향으로 인해 일부 고산지대를 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 소나무림의 생장률이감소할 것으로 예측되었으며, 특히 해안지역과 남부지역에서 생장률의 감소가 클 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과를 통해 기후변화가 소나무림 생장에 미치는 영향을 시·공간에 따라 정량화 할 수 있었으며, 이는 기후변화 적응을 고려한 산림관리 및 시업계획을 수립하는데 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것이다. The main purpose of this study is to measure spatio-temporal variation of forest tree volume basedon the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenario, targeting on Pinus densiflora forests which is the main tree species in South Korea. To estimate nationwide scale, 5th forest type map and National Forest Inventory data were used. Also, to reflect the impact of change in place and climate on growth of forest trees, growth model reflecting the climate and topography features were applied. The result of the model validation, which compared the result of the model with the forest statistics of different cities and provinces, showed a high suitability. Considering the continuous climate change, volume of Pinus densiflora forest is predicted to increase from 131 m3/ha at present to 212.42 m3/ha in the year of 2050. If the climate maintains as the present, volumeis predicted to increase to 221.92 m3/ha. With the climate change, it is predicted that most of the region, except for some of the alpine region, will have a decrease in growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest. The growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest will have a greater decline, especially in the coastal area and the southern area. With the result of this study, it will be possible to quantify the effect of climate change on the growth of Pinusdensiflora forest according to spatio-temporal is possible. The result of the study can be useful in establishing the forest management practices, considering the adaptation of climate change.

개 이자의 Somatostatin 양성세포의 발달에 관한 면역조직화학적 연구

장인엽,윤상필,정윤영,김종중,문정석,한길현,김영택,안계훈,선희매 조선대학교 부설 의학연구소 1998 The Medical Journal of Chosun University Vol.23 No.2

Cells immnunoreactive for somatostatin(SOM) and glucagon(GLU) were investigated in postnatal day 0, 7, 14, 28, 90, 180 and adult canine pancreas using light microscopic immunohistochemistry. Pancreatic SOM-immunoreactive cells were found in pancreatic acini, pancreatic duct, and pancreatic islet gradually. Pancreatic SOM-immunoreactive cells were more located in pancreatic parenchyme than pancreatic islet throughout pancreas by postnatal day 28. But there was change by the postnatal 3 months : pancreatic SOM-immunoreactive cells were more located in pancreatic islet than acini and duct. It is suggested that the number of the SOM-immunoreactive cells may not increase with age apparently. A small number of SOM-immunoreactive cells that showed GLU-immunoreactivity were also observed in canine pancreatic islet. The physiologic consequences of these changes remain to be determined. These results sugegest that SOM in the developing pancreas may relate to the secretion of pancreatic hormones.

한국 남동해역 시질퇴적물의 물리적 성질

김길영(Gil Young KIM),김대철(Dae Choul KIM),박수철(Soo Chul PARK),유동근(Dong Geun YOO),최진혁(Jin Hyuk CHOI),김정창(Jeong Chang KIM) 한국수산과학회 1996 한국수산과학회지 Vol.29 No.5

Physical properties and textural parameters of thirty-five piston core samples recovered from the southeastern coast of Korea (Korea Strait), were investigated using the autopycnometer. The physical properties (porosity, water content, wet bulk density, dry bulk density, grain density, and void ratio) were measured at rather uniform intervals along each core. Sediment texture (grain size, sand, silt, and clay contents) was also measured at the same subbottom depth. The measured and calculated results are; mean grain size 0.57∼8.09 Φ (average: 3.67 Φ), porosity 26∼81% (average: 55%), water content 16.7∼61.4% (average: 31.6%, wet bulk density 1.37∼2.18 g/㎤ (average: 1.85 g/㎤), dry bulk density 2.55∼3.11 g/㎤ (average: 2.35 g/㎤), grain density 2.40∼3.10 g/㎤ (average: 2.85 g/㎤), and void ratio 0.56∼2.54 (average: 0.94). The sediment texture generally coincides well with the bathymetry indicating the influence of Pleistocene-Holocene sea level changes. Also the contours of physical properties are closely related to the sediment texture. Fluctuation of physical properties are similar to the textural variation. It seems that sediment texture is a significant factor in determining physical property in this study area.

Technical Change and Policy Implications for Developing Environmentally-Friendly Agriculture in Korea

( Jung Il Kang ),( Chang Gil Kim ) 한국농촌경제연구원 2000 Journal of Rural Development Vol.23 No.2

Environmentally Sustainable technologies may be broadly categorized as end-of-pipe technology and clean technology. Progress towards sustainable technologies in agriculture must call on farmers, agricultural economists, scientists, and government to act as partners in a process of technical change. Within this partnership approach, the government`s role has a vital role to play in promoting the integration of both technologies and disseminating those technologies. As an integrated approach to establish sustainable technologies, Korean-type precision farming such as the integrated pest and nutrient management (IPNM) has the potential to make a major contribution towards improving agricultural practice and then increasing efficiency and reducing the impacts on the environment from agro-chemical wastage.

Trithioformaldehyde(TTFA)가 백서에서 사염화탄소 투여에 의한 간 손상에 미치는 영향에 대한 형태학적 연구

강병길,김창진,강상균 순천향대학교 1992 논문집 Vol.15 No.2

Carbon tetrachloride is not only toxic to the liver causing centrilobular necrosis and fatty change, but also harmful to the kidney, the lung and the nervous system. It causes hepatic injury constantly regredless of the routes of administration, so that it is used in the animal model of toxic hepatic injury. It is metabolized by microsomal enzyme, cytochrome p-450, to produce trichloromethyl and monoatomic free radicals, which have toxic effects on cell membrane and cytoplasmic organelles. Their toxic effects can be lessened by antioxidant vitamin E or methionine and glutathione Trithioformaldehyde(TTFA) is a synthetic cyclic aliphatic compound containing three sulfur atoms. This study is done to evaluate the protective effects of TTFA on the hepatic injury caused with carbon tetrachloride by light and electron microscopic examination. The results are as follows. 1. TTFA administration increased SGPT and SGOP compared to the control group. 2. Pretreatment of TTFa before carbon tetrachloride administration decreased SGOT and SGPT compared to the carbon tetrachloride alone administration. 3. TTFA administration brought slightly irregular hepatic cell cords light microscopically and dilattion of RER and mitochondria electron microscopically. 4. Carbon tetrachloride administration brought extensive severe centrilobular hepatic necrosis and fatty change light and electron microscopically. 5. Pretreatment of TTFA before carbon tetrachloride administration brought centrilbular necrosis but the fatty change was minimal compared to carbon tetrachloride alone administration. Electron microscopically, the cell necrosis and degeneration were also in lesser degree compared to the carbon tetrachloride alone administration. The above results suggest that TTFA might lessen the hepato-toxic effects of carbon tetrachloride, but further studies are needed to elucidate it.

Para-Chlorophenylalanine이 흰쥐 췌장 외분비부분 샘포세포에 미치는 영향에 대한광학 및 전자현미경적 연구

김인구,정영길,최창도,최월봉 대한해부학회 1994 Anatomy & Cell Biology Vol.27 No.3

화학기상증착 반응기 시뮬레이션 연구

서화일,장호정,장영철,석창길,이은호,임장규 호서대학교반도체제조장비국산화 연구센터 2000 반도체 장비기술 논문집 Vol.2000 No.-

안구적출에 따른 위둔덕의 칼슘결합단백질의 재구축 및 상호 연관성

안병수,고길석,안명수,김경주,권안성,정명섭,박춘매,조병옥,김진우,Samudra Acharya,Parmeshwar Narayan Amatya,장인엽 朝鮮大學校 附設 醫學硏究所 2007 The Medical Journal of Chosun University Vol.32 No.1

Background: Superior colliculus is a part of midbrain, and participates in the visual reflexes, It receives afferent fibers from optic nerve, visual cortex, and spinotectal tract. After optic deprivation, the microscopic structure of the superior colliculus changed. Calcium-binding proteins (CBPs) Play an important role in the neuronal protection, differentiation and reorganization of the central nervous system, Objectives and Methods: The effects of neonatal retinal deafferentation on a CBPs, calbindm D-28k (CB), Parvalbumin (PB) and calretimn (CR), and the existence of colocalization between the CBPs were examined immunohistochemically in the rat superior colliculus. Results: On the experimental (contralateral to enucleation) side of superior colliculus, the number of CB-immunoreactive (IR) cells was reduced (77.4% compared to control), but not fibers. The number of PB-IR neurons and fibers was also reduced on the experimental side (88.5% compared to control), In the other hand, the CR-IR cells were dramatically increased (642% compared to control), but CR-IR fibers were markedly decreased on the experimental side. The colocalization between CB-CR and PV-CR was rarely observed in the superior colliculus Conclusion: These results suggest that the changes of retinotectal projection may alter the expressional pattern of CBPs in different manners; relatively stable in CB- and PV-IR neurons and plastic in CR-IR neurons.