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EMU Membership and Business Cycle Phases in Europe : Markov-Switching VAR Analysis
Beine, Michel,Candelon, Bertrand,Sekkat, Khalid 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 2003 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.18 No.1
Most empirical applications of the OCA approach based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for the cradibility aspects that play an important role in deciding to join the EMU from the EMS or the EMS-BIS. In this paper, we thackle this peoblem by relying on a regime switching approach that characterizes the position of each economy in its business cycle. Then, using desynchronisation indices based on a non parametric approach, we measure the amplitude and the duration of divergence in the business cycles in order to assess the potential stabilization cost induced by the European economic and monetary union.
EMU Membership and Business Cycle Phases in Europe: Markov-Switching VAR Analysis
( Khalid Sekkat ),( Michel Beine ),( Bertrand Candelon ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2003 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.18 No.1
Most empirical applications of the OCA approach based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for the credibility aspects that play an important role in deciding to join the EMU from the EMS or the EMS-BIS. In this paper, we tackle this problem by relying on a regime switching approach that characterizes the position of each economy in its business cycle. Then, using desynchronisation indices based on a non parametric approach, we measure the amplitude and the duration of divergence in the business cycles in order to assess the potential stabilization cost induced by the European economic and monetary union.