韩国安保外交的战略性变化对韩半岛局势的影响

두보(Bo Tu)(涂, 波) 한국국회학회 2022 한국과 세계 Vol.4 No.2

自金正恩成为北韩最高领导者后,北韩持续地进行了核试验并试射导弹,此举不仅加深了各利益相关国对韩半岛安全局势的担忧,还进而引发了一系列连锁效应。韩国在2017年也经历了朴槿惠政府因“崔顺实门”丑闻被弹劾下台,和共同民主党文在寅就任新总统等“大事件”。随着北韩在核问题上越走越远,原本志在继承和发扬“阳光政策”的文在寅新政府的安保外交立场在一定期间内也逐渐发生战略性变化,不仅加强了同美国的“传统”同盟关系,还在一定时期针对北韩在北核问题上的强硬态度,选择性地加强了韩美同盟和美日同盟的战略合作。但随后文在寅利用“平昌奥运会”的机会对北韩释放出了积极信号并获得了回应,两国拉开了以“平昌奥运会”为契机的南北对话序幕,扭转了南北关系的态势。本文以韩国安保外交的战略性变化对韩半岛的局势影响为研究目的,采取了文献研究方法进行分析。本文捕捉到了在北韩核导挑衅达到最高潮时,韩国文在寅政府安保外交政策出现了虽然短暂却明显的战略性变化。不过韩国认识到了单靠巩固军事同盟并不是解决韩半岛核问题的合理选项,转而加强对北韩的对话协商,带动韩半岛局势走向了缓和和对话,进而有望推动韩半岛实现最终的和平和繁荣。 After becoming North Korea s leader, Kim Jongen conducted nuclear tests and missile launches, which not only deepened the relevant countries’ concern about the security situation in the Korean peninsula, but also caused the South Korea to introduce THAAD system from the US, causing a series of knock-on effects. After going through Park Geunhae government’s “Choi Sunsil scandal”, Moon Jaein became the new president of South Korea. As North Korea walked to more extreme on the nuclear issue, Moon government, which originally wants to inherit and carry forward the Sunshine Policy , has gradually changed security strategic diplomatic stance by not only strengthening the traditional alliance with the United States, but also by discussing necessity of enhancing Korea-US and US-Japan alliance. However Moon government knew the “violence to violence” method might help improve the military deterrence against North Korea, but it’s not conductive to ease the situation. This paper adopted literature research method to analyze the influence of South Korea security diplomacy’s strategic change and its influence on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea realized that strengthening military alliance is not a rational choice, but insisting conversation and peace negotiation can find the way out of the dilemma. By doing this, South Korea performed a “sports diplomacy” to North Korea and brought Korea peninsula back to a relatively peaceful and consultative atmosphere.

A Study on the Docking between South Korea and China under the Background of the Belt and Road Initiative - Based on the Concept of “Korea · China<SUP>+</SUP>” Economic Corridor

Bo Tu(두보) 21세기정치학회 2019 21세기 정치학회보 Vol.29 No.1

Analysis of India Nationalism’s “Spill over” and its Effects on China-Indian Relationship

두보(Bo Tu ) 한국정치사회연구소 2023 한국과 국제사회 Vol.7 No.2

New Developments of 3rd edition China Foreign Policy and Its Influence on Korean Peninsula s Peace Process

두보(Bo Tu) 한국정치사회연구소 2020 한국과 국제사회 Vol.4 No.3

“시진핑 신시대 중국특색 사회주의(Xi Jinping new era’s socialism with Chinese characteristics)” 배경 하에 중국의 외교정책은 3.0시대로 진입했다. 3.0시대의 중국외교정책은 2017년 이후에 두 가지 새로운 발전(New developments)을 추가로 제시하였다. 첫째는 중공 19대 회의에서 “주변외교방침”(Neighborhood diplomacy)을 강조하였고, “일대일로”(the Belt and Road Initiative)를 당장(Party constitution)에 넣었다. 둘째는 중국의 헌법에 “평화발전도로를 견지한다”, “호익공영개방전략을 견지한다”, 및 “인류운명공동체를 추진한다” 3가지 내용을 추가하였다. 중국이 아시아의 중요한 나라 중의 하나로써 3.0시대 중국외교정책의 이러한 새로운 발전변화는 주변국가에 많은 영향을 줄 것으로 판단된다. 본 논문은 문헌연구를 기반으로 중국 3.0시대 외교정책의 새로운 발전변화를 파악하고 이들이 한반도 평화과정에 어떤 영향을 미칠지 분석하고자 한다. 연구결과로 중국의 3.0시대외교는 동북아시아, 특히 한반도의 비핵화 및 평화프로세스를 중점으로 두고 있다. 한반도의 평화 및 발전은 중국의 국익(National interest)과 일치하며, 중국은 관련 국가들과 함께 한반도의 평화를 위해 노력할 것이다. 또한 중국은 향후에 “일대일로” 및 “인류운명공동체” 측면에서 볼 때 남북한과 지역발전전략 연계(Docking)를 통해 한반도 발전에도 큰 도움을 줄 것이다. On the basis of literature review method, this thesis seeks to interpret new developments of third edition of Chinese Foreign Policy, and analyzes what effects this policy will exert on the peace process of Korean peninsula. The third edition of Chinese Foreign Policy demonstrates China’s commitments to weight diplomatic activities toward neighboring regions and countries of the peninsula. The peaceful process of the peninsula brings benefits to China’s diplomacy. China is ready to work with other major countries to promote such a peaceful state. Besides, efforts will be made to strengthen China’s connection with both DPRK and ROK on platforms such as the Belt and Road Initiative, and a community of shared future. China will play its significant role in promoting the peace process on Korean peninsula.

比較中韓兩國液壓油缸產業的競爭力

두보(Tu, Bo),김태완(Kim, Taewan) 동아시아국제정치학회 2018 국제정치연구 Vol.21 No.1

한국 및 중국은 1992년 수교한 후에 관계가 긴밀해지고 국가 간 무역왕래도 계속 증가해왔다. 특히 2015년 한중FTA 정식 발효한 후에 양국의 관세가 인하되고 비관세장벽도 점점 없어지는 추위가 되었다, 이러한 분위기 하에 양국의 제조분야도 더욱 긴밀해지고 서로 영향도 미치게 되었다. 유압실린더는 각종 공사현장에서 많이 쓰이는 중요 중장비부품이고 유압실린더가 없으면 모든 공정건설이 마비가 될 정도이다. 한국은 국제적인 정밀제조업 강국중 하나이며, 많은 제조업 중에 유압실린더는 중국에 수출되는 한국제조업의 대표적 제품이다. 반면에 중국의 유압실린더산업은 중국정부의 지원에도 불구하고 아직 초기단계이다. 본 논문은 양국 실린더산업의 경쟁력 차이를 파악하기 위해 우선 기존문헌을 비판하고 부족한 점을 분석하였다. 다음에는 포터의 다이아몬드 모델을 활용하여 중국과 한국의 실린더산업 경쟁력 차이를 분석하였다. This paper, based on Porter’s Diamond Model, has analyzed Hydraulic Cylinder Industry’s present conditions of China and Korea, such as factor conditions, demand conditions, related & supporting industries and firm strategy, structure & rivalry. Also it has compared two countries’ differences and come to conclusions as follows: First, by analyzing factor conditions, this paper has found China hydraulic cylinder companies can’t sustainably use the extensive style to maintain growth. Instead they must learn Korean companies’ focusing on R&D, increasing efficiency and training skilled workers. Second, by analyzing demand conditions, this paper has found China companies haven’t made good use of regional advantages as they are in the world’s biggest market. Meanwhile even Korea companies don"t have this advantage, but they have found ways to make up this disadvantage and become internationally competitive. Third, by analyzing related & supporting industries, this paper has found China’s raw materials have provided price advantages for both countries, and Korea’s cluster effect is more effective than China’s, as it has helped Korean companies innovate and upgrade. Fourth, by analyzing firm strategy, structure & rivalry, this paper has found China companies are still implementing cheap price strategies for low-end national market share. But Korea companies are implementing global top brand strategy to join in global challenges, and its local market competitors have maintained a balance of competition and co-operation.

用網絡權力理論分析特朗普的執政政策對中韓關係的影響

두보(Bo Tu),여정화(Lyu, Jing-Hua) 동북아시아문화학회 2017 동북아 문화연구 Vol.1 No.52

Obama government promoted Asia-Pacific re-balancing strategy to block China, correspondingly China promoted The Belt and Road strategy, AIIB, etc. to promoto reginal cooperation and free trade. The last Korean government’s “dual track strategy” to China and America is confronting with drastic national and international changes. America’s new president Trump worships “America first”, trade protectionism and Anti-globalization. He also threatens to adjust Obama’s Re-balancing strategy, complains about military expenditure. and holds a fuzzy attitude on North Korea. This made Korea feel difficult to adapt. David sing Grewal’s “Network Theory” used network power to explain relations, global issus, etc. This theory can help distinguish the orders of Korea’s global network relationship and give some clue to diplomatic political adjustment. This paper applies network theories to analyze global great powers’ game and the impact trumpism brings into Korea-China relationship, and to give some suggestions. Korea needs to throw itself into international network to obtain bigger power to enlarge economical, political and security power. North Korea and America are major nods which influence Korea-China relationship, but if exclude these two nods, Korea and China don’t have core benefit conflicts, thus have potential to enhance relationship with each other. Trump government has led Korea-America alliance to be weaker, variate might happen as well. In this situation, Korea must think of a backup plan to consolidate its own benefit. China is sustainably promoting regional cooperation and free trade, and has strong potential diplomacy. Also Korea peninsula’s peaceful development and Korea’s strong relationship accords with mutual benefits. If Korea can work hard to improve Korea-China relationship, it will not only promote trade, but also korea’s network power.

习近平执政时期中国外交政策的对印外交实践

두보(Bo Tu)(涂,波) 한국정치사회연구소 2021 한국과 국제사회 Vol.5 No.3

中国进入到“习近平新时代中国特色社会主义”下的3.0版外交时期后,在实践中不断发展,尤其是2017年以来,3.0版中国外交政策继续有新的变化:一是强调了“周边外交方针”,并把“人类命运共同体”理念下的“一带一路”写进了《党章》;二是在《宪法》里增加了“坚持和平发展道路”、“坚持互利共赢开放战略”和“推动构建人类命运共同体”。除此之外,“亚洲新安全观”和“底线思维”等新的理念也逐渐在中国的外交实践中不断得到落实。在风云多变的国际社会里,不断有反全球化和反区域一体化的逆流出现,莫迪政府领导的印度就是一个例子。莫迪极力推行印度教民族主义,不仅在印度境内掀起了一轮又一轮宗教民族主义思潮,而且还外溢到了国际社会。尤其印度军方分别两次越境进入中国,制造了洞朗事件和加勒万河谷冲突,严重影响了中印两国关系,也给3.0版中国外交政策造成了严峻考验。本文着力研究了3.0版外交政策发展时期的重要理念是如何运用到对印度的外交博弈里,又是怎样既避免事态升级,又不卑不亢合理发声的。从结果上看,中国在洞朗事件上保持了高度克制,坚持通过谈判协商解决问题;在两次事件的中间期,中国积极推动首脑互动,努力寻求打造和平互利共赢的态势;而在加勒万河谷冲突时期,中国在坚持“底线思维”的同时,坚持和平发展道路。在今后,中国仍然需要坚持“新型大国关系”、“底线思维”和“亲诚惠容周边外交”等3.0版外交理念,在维护好中国核心利益的同时,尽力创造和维护良好的周边外交环境,以此来为国际社会的和平和发展做出贡献。 After entering the era of Xi Jinping administration, China s 3.0 version foreign policy has been continuously developing in practice. Especially since 2017, China s 3.0 version foreign policy continued to have new changes as follows: First, it emphasized the “Foreign Policy of Neighboring Countries” and put the “Belt and Road Initiative” into the Communist Party Constitution. Second, added “Adhering to the Path of Peaceful Development”, “Adhering to the Win-Win Strategy of Opening up” and “Promoting the Building of a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind” to China Constitution. Other than that, “New Concept of Asia Security” and “Bottom-line Thinking” also gradually are implemented in China s diplomatic practice. In the volatile international society, there have been upstreams against globalization and regional integration, of which Modi administration is one example. Modi pushed for Hindu nationalism, which not only set off drastically religious nationalism trend in the domestic, but also led to spillover into the international community. The Indian military respectively crossed the border into China and caused the Dong Lang Issue and the Galvan Valley Conflict. These issues seriously affected the relations between the two countries and challenged the implementation of China 3.0 version foreign policy. This paper focuses on how the important concepts in the 3.0 foreign policy were applied to the diplomatic practice against India, and how China avoided the escalation of the situation. From the paper, we can find that China maintained a high degree of restraint and insisted on solving the problem through negotiation and consultation in the Dong Lang Issue. In the interlude between the two issues, China actively promoted the interaction between two leaders and sought to build a momentum of peace and mutual benefit. In the Galvan Valley Conflict period, China stuck to the “Bottom-line Thinking” at well as adhered to the “Path of Peaceful Development”. China in the future will still need to adhere to these 3.0 version foreign concepts-- “the Great Power Relations”, “Bottom-line Thinking” and “Amity, Sincerity, Mutual Benefit and Inclusiveness in China s Neighborhood Diplomacy”. China will safeguard its core interests and maintain a good foreign environment in order to contribute to peace and development of the international society.

Influences of the Balancing Strategy among Major Powers on Mongolia’s International Power Network

Bo Tu(두보),Hyunjung Kim(김현정) 동아시아국제정치학회 2019 국제정치연구 Vol.22 No.1

몽골은 냉전 이후 소련(현 러시아)과의“동맹 관계”를 종결한 후 사회주의국가에서 민주국가로 변환했고, 외교정책도“제3국 외교노선”을 선택하였다. 그리고 2013년부터 몽골의 외교정책에는 새로운 변화가 나타났다. 당시 한반도 핵위기를 해결해 나가기 위해“6자회담”이 사실상 종결된 시점에서 몽골은“울란바토르대화채널” (UDNA: Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asia)을 창설하였으며, 2015년에는“영세중립국”(Permanent neutralized state, PNS) 지위에 도전하였다. 일련의 몽골‘3단계’ 외교전략을 국가간 균형전략이라고 통칭할 수 있다. 본 논문은 네트워크권력이론(Network power theory)을 토대로, 몽골이 강대국 사이에서 어떻게‘3단계’ 외교전략을 펼쳐 나갔는지를 고찰하였다. 또한 몽골이 러시아, 중국, 그리고 다른 제3국들 간의 균형을 맞추어 나아간 전략에 대해서도 연구하였다. 네트워크이론을 통해 국가간 균형전략이 몽골의 국제권력네트워크에 미치는 영향을 분석하면 다음과 같다.: 첫째, 몽골은 소련과의 동맹관계에서 탈피하여, 제3국 외교노선을 통해 미국 등 강대국의 세력을 유입함으로써 중국 및 러시아에 대한 과도한 의존도를 낮췄다. 둘째, 몽골은 대국외교정책을 기반으로 적극적으로 세계적 그리고 지역적 다자간 권력네트워크를 참여하여 몽골 국제네트워크의 다양성 및 복합성을 제고하였고, 이를 통해 자국의 국제적 영향력을 높이고 이득을 획득했다. 셋째,“올란바토르 대화채널”의 성공적인 연속 개최 및“영세중립국” 시도를 통해, 몽골은 국제네트워크의 추종자(Follower)에서 주도자(Leader)로 부상하고 있다. In Northeast Asia, Mongolia, a country surrounded by major powers, is gradually becoming a “bright spot” in the international power network due to implementation of reasonable foreign policies. Mongolia had implemented the “Multi-pivot” Foreign Policy after ending the “One-sided (to Soviet Union)” Foreign Policy, and thereafter tried the “Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asia” and sought for the position of “Permanent Neutralized State”, all of which are the “Balancing Strategy among Major Powers” carried out by Mongolia to win balance among major powers including China, the United States & Russia and to gain diplomatic benefits. This Paper uses network power theory (NPT in short) to analyze the influence of Mongolia’s “Balancing Strategy among Major Powers (BSAMP in short)”. Started with the three elements of nodes, relationship between nodes, and network, this Paper has summarized how major powers and middle countries around the world establish international power network to realize their benefits, and explain how various country nodes balance other countries’ influence, realize power rise and gain benefits by taking advantage of the international power network. Then, the development process of Mongolia’s BSAMP is reviewed. After that, the network power theory is applied to analyze the influences of the BSAMP on the international power network of Mongolia. This paper finds that Mongolia, a small country surrounded by major powers, is gradually becoming a “bright spot” in the international power network due to implementation of reasonable foreign policies. Mongolia implemented the “Multi-pivot” Foreign Policy after ending the “One-sided (to Soviet Union)” Foreign Policy, and thereafter tried the “Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asia” and sought for the position of “Permanent Neutralized State”, all of which are called the BSAMP carried out to win balance among major powers, and to gain diplomatic benefits.

An Analysis on the Developmental Change of India’s Hedging strategy against The Belt and Road Initiative and its Effect on Indo-Pacific Regional Cooperation

Bo Tu(두보) 21세기정치학회 2017 21세기 정치학회보 Vol.27 No.3

트럼프 정부 출범과 미일관계: 안보-통상 측면의 연계변화

김현정 ( Hyunjung Kim ),두보 ( Bo Tu ),( Singh Aparna ) 한국세계지역학회 2017 世界地域硏究論叢 Vol.35 No.4

미 신정부는 전통 우방국인 한국과 일본에는 안보관계유지-통상관계 재조정을 요구, 중국에는 통상관계 이익보장을 통해 안보측면의 북한문제 해결을 촉구하고 있다. 미국은 아시아에 "적극적으로 개입해"(engaged and active in Asia) 공정·자유무역을 추진하고, 북핵 위협 등 동아시아 안보에 대한 대응은 그대로 유지한다고 공표하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 안보협력, 양국 간 안보체제의 개념에 대해 분석하였다. 트럼프 정부는 미일, 미중, 미한 관계 즉 양자 관계 재설정 전략을 통해 대 동아시아 정책을 진행하고 있으며, 유효한 결과를 얻을 수 있을 것으로 관측되고 있다. 미 신정부의 기본정책(대선 당시 공약) 중 미국 내 주요정책(건강보험 개정, 반이민법 등)이 추진에 난항을 겪는 가운데, 신정권은 대외정책에서 성과를 거두기 위한 집중 공략을 펼칠 것으로 예상되는 상황인 것이다. 따라서 통상-안보 연계한 영역에서 양자 간 관계가 어떠한 협상을 거쳐 관계조정을 해 나아가는지에 관한 연구가 필요한 것이다. 이에 본 논문에서는 미일 간 안보와 통상 측면에서 관계에 대해 외부자극에 의한 대외정책 조정과 협상에 관한 이론적 고찰을 시행하였다. 미국은 대 일본정책을 위해 일본이 원하는 미일안보체제 유지 및 신안보 체제 구상에 합의하는 대신 TPP 탈퇴 후 미일 FTA 개별 추진이라는 통상 측면의 초강수 정책 노선을 취하고 있다. 이의 분석을 위해 삼자간 협상부분의 오드맨 아웃 이론의 논리 그리고 라이벌 관계 극복을 위한 수세적 양자 혹은 다자 협상 전략에서의 전망 이론의 논리를 통해 미일 간 안보-통상 영역에서의 대외정책 조정과정을 설명하였다. As Trump’s domestic policies are facing difficulties, he has concentrated on foreign policies in order to obtain good results. Trump is executing East Asian policies by formulating U.S.-Japan, U.S.-China, U.S-Korea relations. Thus there is a need to research how two countries’ relations negotiation will get adjusted and improved with respect to trade-security aspects. This paper implements a theoretical analysis of foreign policy adjustment and negotiation made by external stimulations in trade-security aspects of the U.S. and Japan’s relations. As Trump agreed to maintain U.S.-Japan security system and construct new security system, he is strongly executing trade policies of bilateral U.S.-Japan FTA after withdrawing TPP. By putting in ‘odd man out theory’ method to understand 3 players’ negotiation and ‘prospect theory’ method for the analysis of defensive negotiation strategy to overcome rival relation, this paper explains foreign policy adjustment process between U.S. and Japan in the security-trade aspect.