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( Bernhard J. Seliger ) 이화여자대학교 통일학연구원 2012 Journal of peace and unification Vol.2 No.1
As the recent “Arab spring” movement has shown, control of communication is crucial for the survival of nondemocratic regimes. In particular, outside communication that allows citizens to compare alternative political regimes is dangerous. German East-West relations and East-West communication in the time of Cold War from 1945 to 1989 were much thicker than inner-Korean relations at the same time and today. This paper identifies three main driving factors of communication, namely Cold War competition, the existence of West Berlin, and trade relations. Every attempt to improve inter-Korean relations has to start from the fact that the current North Korean regime has no interest in open communication, which erodes the internal controlling power of the state.
Bernhard Seliger 평화문제연구소 2006 統一問題硏究 Vol.18 No.1
Border regions due to their limiting and restricting character with regard to human economic activity often developed as important natural preserves throughout the world. This was and is especially true, where political confrontation leads to more or less impenetrable borders, e.g. in the case of divided Germany and Korea. Here, the three challenges of sustainable economic development, environmental protection and preparation for national unification had to be mastered. After the end of ideological confrontation in Europe the inner-German border became a "green belt"of natural preserves and the largest connected system of biotopes. This interesting development had model character also for a green belt throughout Europe, along the former Iron curtain. In Korea such a solution has yet to be found. If the border can be successfully developed to a unifying green ribbon between the two Koreas, it can also have model character for other border regions in Northeast Asia.
Bernhard Widmann,Christian Galata,Rene Warschkow,Ulrich Beutner,Önder Ögredici,Franc H Hetzer,Bruno M Schmied,Stefan Post,Lukas Marti 대한소화기 기능성질환∙운동학회 2019 Journal of Neurogastroenterology and Motility (JNM Vol.25 No.1
Background/Aims The aim of this study was to evaluate the sustainability of sacral neuromodulation (SNM) success in patients with fecal incontinence (FI) and/or constipation. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of a prospective database of patients who received SNM therapy for FI and/or constipation between 2006 and 2015. Success rates, complications and reintervention rates were assessed after up to 10 years of follow-up. Results Electrodes for test stimulation were implanted in 101 patients, of whom 79 (78.2%) received permanent stimulation. The mean follow-up was 4.4 ± 3.0 years. At the end of follow-up, 57 patients (72.2%) were still receiving SNM. The 5-year success rate for FI and isolated constipation was 88.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80.1–97.0%) and 31.2% (95% CI, 10.2–95.5%), respectively (P < 0.001). In patients with FI, involuntary evacuations per week decreased > 50% in 76.1% of patients (95% CI, 67.6–86.2%) after 5 years. A lead position at S3 was associated with an improved outcome (P = 0.04). Battery exchange was necessary in 23 patients (29.1%), with a median battery life of 6.2 years. Reinterventions due to complications were necessary in 24 patients (30.4%). For these patients, the 5-year success rate was 89.0% (95% CI, 75.3–100.0%) compared to 78.4% (95% CI, 67.2–91.4%) for patients without reintervention. Conclusions SNM offers an effective sustainable treatment for FI. For constipation, lasting success of SNM is limited and is thus not recommended. Reinterventions are necessary but do not impede treatment success. Background/Aims The aim of this study was to evaluate the sustainability of sacral neuromodulation (SNM) success in patients with fecal incontinence (FI) and/or constipation. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of a prospective database of patients who received SNM therapy for FI and/or constipation between 2006 and 2015. Success rates, complications and reintervention rates were assessed after up to 10 years of follow-up. Results Electrodes for test stimulation were implanted in 101 patients, of whom 79 (78.2%) received permanent stimulation. The mean follow-up was 4.4 ± 3.0 years. At the end of follow-up, 57 patients (72.2%) were still receiving SNM. The 5-year success rate for FI and isolated constipation was 88.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80.1–97.0%) and 31.2% (95% CI, 10.2–95.5%), respectively (P < 0.001). In patients with FI, involuntary evacuations per week decreased > 50% in 76.1% of patients (95% CI, 67.6–86.2%) after 5 years. A lead position at S3 was associated with an improved outcome (P = 0.04). Battery exchange was necessary in 23 patients (29.1%), with a median battery life of 6.2 years. Reinterventions due to complications were necessary in 24 patients (30.4%). For these patients, the 5-year success rate was 89.0% (95% CI, 75.3–100.0%) compared to 78.4% (95% CI, 67.2–91.4%) for patients without reintervention. Conclusions SNM offers an effective sustainable treatment for FI. For constipation, lasting success of SNM is limited and is thus not recommended. Reinterventions are necessary but do not impede treatment success.
International Trade and the Risk Premium in the Currency Forward Market
( Bernhard Eckwert ),( Udo Broll ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 1998 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.13 No.4
In this paper we present an intertemporal model of the spot and forward markets for foreign exchange. We analyze the implications of central bank interventions on the spot market for the risk premium in the currency forward market and discuss the consequences for the allocation of exchange rate risk and for the volume of international trade. As a main result we find that exchange rate volatility does not generate systematic risk and hence does not adversely affect international trade as long as the monetary authorities do not exogenously intervene in the foreign exchange spot market. (JEL Classification: F11, F31, F33)
North Korea’s New Social Media Policies: More Openness or just Better Propaganda?
( Bernhard Seliger ),( Felix Glenk ),( Teresa Wellner ) 이화여자대학교 통일학연구원 2021 Journal of peace and unification Vol.11 No.2
The DPRK has increased its efforts to appeal to an international audience through the use of social media platforms. This paper aims at providing a better understanding of the North Korean social media strategy and its effectiveness. First discussing internet use and social media within the DPRK, this paper analyzes the way North Korea makes use of interna-tional social media platforms, what main players are involved and how effective it has been. For this, the paper draws on the content posted on various social media platforms as well as previous newspaper articles. Although a rise in efforts regarding social media use is visible, there is an obvious lack of practical experience and understanding of internet standards and social media etiquette.
The Second Advent of Eurosclerosis ? : The Problematic Future of the European Union
(Bernhard Seliger) 한국EU학회 2001 EU학연구 Vol.6 No.1
The process of European integration as well as the development of European economies since World War Ⅱ are characterized by phases of dynamism and phases of stagnation and disorientation. These latter phases have been analyzed as `eurosclerosis`, the old-age disease of long term stability of economic systems. Especially the interest group theory and the theory of the rise and decline of nations forwarded by Mancur Olson provided valuable insights into the process of institutional sclerosis. This paper discusses the link between sclerosis of national economic systems and sclerosis in the European integration process. Currently, the danger of a second phase of eurosclerosis is growing. Given the challenges of the common currency and the Eastern enlargement of the European Union, reforms to prevent this are urgent.