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Cyclical Dynamics of the Turkish Economy and the Stock Market
Zeynep Senyuz,Emre Yoldas,Ismail Onur Baycan 한국국제경제학회 2014 International Economic Journal Vol.28 No.3
We analyze the cyclical dynamics of the Turkish economy and the stock market as well as their interactions. We use hidden Markov models that are robust to parameter instability arising from major shifts in economic policy, which have been typically observed in the Turkish economy. These models provide estimates of turning points for the growth, business, and stock market cycles. We identify three states of growth cycles and two states of business cycles in Turkey characterized by different mean estimates. We find that the economy went through five recessions since 1987. Crises are characterized by sharp drops in economic activity and are preceded by slowdowns. These crises are typically followed by strong recoveries during which the economy grows above its long-run average rate. We show that the Turkish stock market goes through three regimes having distinct risk-return dynamics. Bear markets associated with negative returns precede every recession with an average lead time of three quarters, suggesting that the stock market may be a useful forward-looking indicator of the Turkish economy.
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Savas Kanbur,Gulcin Ozcan Ates,Sinem Altinisik,Ulas Cinar,Fatma Baycan 한국고분자학회 2021 폴리머 Vol.45 No.6
A new thiophene benzimidazole based polymer (TBIP) was synthesized and then the TBIP-Br, TBIP-BF₄ and TBIP-ClO₄ polymer salts were obtained in water. All polymer salts can be dissolved in environmentally friendly solvents such as water or ethanol. Electrochemical and optical properties of the polymers were elucidated with cyclic voltammetry (CV) and ultraviolet-visible absorption (UV-Vis) spectroscopy. By using CV, the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) values were found as approximately 1.70 eV. According to the atomic force microscopy (AFM) images of the thin film of TBIP, there are homogeneously distributed and smaller particles on the film surface, while the surface of TBIP-Br and TBIP-ClO₄ thin films is rougher due to -Br and -ClO₄ counter ions being bigger than -BF₄. Additionally, the antimicrobial activity of TBIP polymers was also investigated. All TBIP and its salts were showed antimicrobial activity against S. aureus ATCC 6538 and no antimicrobial activity against E. coli ATCC 1301 and ATCC 25922.
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