다변량 기온확률모형을 이용한 날씨보험의 가격결정 및 리스크 평가에 대한 연구

이창수 ( Chang Soo Lee ),김철식 ( Zhe Zhi Jin ),송창길 ( Chang Gil Song ) 한국계리학회 2011 계리학연구 Vol.3 No.1

날씨위험은 기온, 강수량, 바람 등의 일상적 날씨 변수의 변동에 의한 기업이나 개인의 재무적 손실 위험을 의미한다. 해외의 경우 날씨 변화 리스크에 대한 인식이 높아지면서 날씨 리스크를 관리하기 위한 날씨파생상품, 날씨보험 등의 상품들이 개발되었다. 국내에도 날씨보험 상품이 도입되었지만 과도한 보험료 등의 이유로 시장이 활성화되지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 보험료 결정 모형의 타당성이 낮은 것이 과도한 보험료의 주요 원인이라 할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 여름철 이상저온 현상을 담보하는 날씨보험에 대해 보다 합리적인 보험료 산출 방안을 제시하고 있다. 먼저, 기후온난화 추세와 지역간 기온의 상관관계를 반영한 다변량 기온확률모형을 제시하여 기존의 접근방법을 개선하고자 하였다. 또한 제시된 모형에 기반한 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통해, 날씨보험의 가격을 결정하고 날씨보험 지역 포트폴리오에 대한 통합적 리스크를 평가하였다. Weather risk refers to uncertainty of financial losses caused by change of weather variables. Global market for the management of weather risk expanded significantly and financial instruments such as weather derivatives and weather insurance are being traded. Recently, a weather insurance product was introduced to Korean market also but its trading volume was very limited. One of main reasons of limited market size in Korea is unreasonably excessive premium level. In this paper a multivariate temperature model is suggested to improve adequacy of pricing model for weather insurance. Suggested model reflects correlations among different geographical areas and increasing trend in temperature. Results of pricing and evaluation of risk are provided using Monte Carlo simulation based on the suggested model

후스의 식민지 조선 인식과 교류 양상 연구

金哲 ( Jin Zhe ),莊慶濤 ( Zhuang Qingtao ) 중국어문학회 2020 中國語文學誌 Vol.0 No.73

Hu Shi, one of the initiators and great master of the Chinese New Literature Movement, has great interests in reality in colonial Korea, the development of Korean modern literature, the independence of Korea. He takes Korean language, literature, and academic research as the subjects of researches. He tried to hold various exchanges to understand and recognize colonial Korea and Korean culture in many aspects. The exchanges of Hu Shi and the intellectuals of modern Korea are also processes of mutual subjectivity confirmations and in-depth cultural exchanges of intellectuals on the basis of mutual equality, respect and trust. Hu Shi’s perceptions of colonial Korea broke out from the traditional perception that China-Korea relationship is subordinate relation, and went beyond the influence-acceptance relationship between advanced country and colony or the relationship between center and periphery. The perceptions of the relationship between periphery to periphery in the process of modernization on the basis of mutual subjectivity can be said to be an example of great significance in the history of between China and Korea.

명 · 청시기 조선 사신들의 대중국 인식 변화 양상에 대한 연구

김철(Jin, Zhe),황효영(Huang, xiaoying) 가천대학교 아시아문화연구소 2015 아시아문화연구 Vol.39 No.-

본 논문은 역사, 문화적 고찰이라는 시각에서 현재 한국에서 최신 자료정리 성과로 인정받고 있는 임기중(林基中)의 100권 『연행록전집』(2001)과 50원 『연행록속집』(2008), 『연행록총간증보판DB』(2013), 그리고 임형택(林熒澤)의 3권 『연행록선비보유(上·中·下) 중에 기록되어 있는 산해관 관련 시(詩)들을 주요 연구대상으로 삼고 거기에 나타난 조선 사신들의 대중국 인식 양상을 고찰하였다. 명·청시기 산해관은 외교적 목적으로 중국에 드나들었던 조선 사신들에게 있어서 다양한 이국 생활과 문화를 체험을 할 수 있는 특별한 공간이었다. 고대 조선 사신들이 이와 같은 산해관을 소재로 수백 수에 달하는 관련 시(詩)들을 창작한 사실을 통해 우리는 산해관이 그들의 심목 중에 차지하는 비중이 얼마나 컸는지를 김작할 수 있다. 지역적인 경계뿐만 아니라 관념적인 화이(華夷)경계로 인지된 산해관은 산해관시(詩)의 중요한 이미지이다. 본 논문은 이와 같은 산해관시(詩)들에 대해 전면적이고도 세밀한 분석을 진행함으로써 명·청 교체시기를 전후하여 나타난 조선 사신들의 대중국 인식이 전통적인 화이관과 대명의리, 또는 소중화(小中華)의식을 바탕으로 하고 있음을 밝혀냈다. 본 연구는 명·청 교체를 전후한 조선 사신들의 대중국 인식의 변화를 전면적이고도 객관적으로 이해하는 데, 그리고 본 논문에서 거론한 산해관시(詩)가 중한고대문학교류사에서 차지하는 의의를 새롭게 규명하는 데 모두 일정한 도움이 될 것으로 믿어 의심치 않는다. At present, The Collected Works of Yeonhaengrok(100 Volumes, written by Key Zung Lim, 2001), The Sequel of Yeonhaengrok(50 Volumes, written by Key Zung Lim, 2008), Supplementary Edition of General Yeonhaengrok DB(Key Zung Lim, 2013) and The Addendum of Yeonhaengrok Anthology(3 Volumes, written by Hyong Taek Lim, 2008) has gained approval in academic circles of South Korea. This study, which focuses on Shanhaiguan poetry in above data, will research the cognize of China by Chosun envoys in aspects of history and culture. Shanhaiguan is an especial place for Chosun envoys, in which they can experience and observe exotic life and culture. Therefore, they left hundreds of poetries about Shanhaiguan, which reflected its important role. The image of Shanhaiguan mainly reflected in geographical boundary and the differences of Chinese and barbarian. The paper will study the China-centered mentality, consciousness of worship and distinction of Chinese and barbarian in cognize of China by Chosun envoys at the turn of Ming and Qing Dynasty by comprehensive and detailed analysis on Shanhaiguan poetry. There is no doubt that the paper can help us to know the change of cognize and attitude of China by Chosun envoys objectively at the turn of Ming and Qing Dynasty, and it can also help us to find their significance in field of literary history.

명말 등주(登州) 문인 오대빈(吳大斌)과 조선 문인들의 교유 관련 연구-『연행록(燕行錄)』중의 창화시(唱和詩)를 중심으로-

김철 ( Jin Zhe ) 동방한문학회 2017 東方漢文學 Vol.0 No.71

본 논문은 명말(1623~1636년 경) 산동 등주(登州)를 거쳐 간 조선시대 문인들과 登州 문인 吳大斌 간에 수창했던 차운한 시와 贈詩, 그리고 오대빈의 原韻詩 등을 연구대상으로 삼았다. 오대빈은 원래 무인 출신이었는데 명말 전란 때문에 遼東에서 산동 登州로 건너와 정착하게 된다. 비록 궁핍한 삶을 살았지만 지조가 있고 시 짓기에 능했기 때문에 주변 사람들의 존경을 받았다. 특히 오대빈은 등주를 거쳐 북경으로 가는 조선 사신들에게 주동적으로 접근하여 시로써 그들과 우정을 맺고 깊은 우의를 다져갔다. 물론 기타 형식의 교류도 가끔 있긴 했으나 주로 시를 통한 교류였다고 볼 수 있다. 그 과정에 오대빈은 많은 조선 문인들과 깊은 우정을 쌓게 되었고 이들 더불어 적지 않은 훌륭한 창화시들을 세상에 남겨 놓았다. 당시 오대빈과 시적 교류를 진행한 조선 문인들은 대개 李民宬, 金尙憲, 金地粹, 高用厚, 崔有海, 卞獻 등 6명이다. 오대빈이 조선 문인들과 수창했던 시들과 증시, 그리고 오대빈의 原韻詩들은 조선 문인들의 연행록에 기록되어 오늘날까지 전해오고 있다. 이러한 시들은 당시 후금과의 전쟁으로 인하여 나날이 쇠퇴해가던 명나라에 대한 한·중 문인들의 우려와 명나라가 하루 빨리 옛날 기강을 회복하기를 바라는 간절한 염원, 그리고 혈맹 관계였던 한·중 두 나라 문인들 간에 맺어진 끈끈한 우정과 개인적인 감정들을 잘 보여주고 있다. 오대빈은 비록 유명한 문인은 아니었지만 당시 해로연행이라는 특수한 시대를 배경으로 조선 문인들과 활발하게 문학적 교류를 진행했었는바, 그 문학적 성과는 고대 한·중 문학문화교류사 연구에서 중요한 가치를 지닌다. 본고는 주로 상기한 창화시에 대한 고찰을 통해서 그 문학적 가치와 의의는 물론, 그 과정에 한·중 문인들 간에 맺어진 우정과 우의의 의미를 재조명하고자 한다. 본 연구는 산동 문인들과 고대 조선 문인들 간의 문학, 문화교류 양상을 보다 객관적으로 파악하고 그 관련 연구의 저변을 확대하는데 모두 일정한 의의가 있다. The object of this thesis are responsory poems, valedictory poems, original rhyme poems and relevant records in Yeonhaengrok made by Oh Daebeen, a scholar of Dengzhou, and Korean scholars in the late of Ming Dynasty. Although there is no detail information about Oh Daebeen in domestic literature, we can find some specific details from Yeonhaengrok. He came from a martial family and migrated from Liaodong to Dengzhou because of war in the late of Ming Dynasty. With a poor life in his late years, he had a sharp sense of integrity and was good at verse. So he got respect and support both from people around and Korean scholars. He always initiatively made friends with Korean scholars, and kept sincere relation by making poems. During this period, they made some excellent antiphon poetry. There are 6 Korean scholars who contacted with him such as Lee Meensung, Kim Sanghyun, Kim Jeesu and so on. Their responsory poems, valedictory poems and original rhyme poems were recorded in Yeonhaengrok. Because of the War against the Later Jin Dynasty, the poems made by scholars from both Ming and Korea reflected the anxiety about the weak of Ming Dynasty and the hope of its revitalization, as well as the friendship and personal emotion between the scholars of the two countries. Although, Oh Daebeenis not a famous scholar in Chinese history, he made active exchange with Korean scholars under the special background of traveling to Yenching by sea route, and his works got significant value in literary communication history of China-Korea. By studying on the poems, the thesis mainly researched their literary value and significance, and reflected the profound friendship of China and Korean scholars. This paper will be helpful to understand their literature, exchange and extend relative research fields objectively.

북핵 이후 북한과 중국간의 경제협력 전망

金哲(Jin Zhe),禹穎子(Yu Yingzi) 경기연구원 2006 경기논단 Vol.8 No.4

The nuclear explosion experiment in DPRK has made the country’s crisis more serious. Two aspects must be clarified in analyzing the nuclear issue in DPRK. First, developing nuclear weapon is to meet the requirement of protecting DPRK’s own survival due to the lack of national safty security, and the low economic development level; Second, developing nuclear weapon in DPRK has destroyed the safty situation in North-east Asian area, and violated the common understanding of most other countries. Therefore, the cut-in point to resovle the nuclear issue in DPRK should be put on settling the issues that are deeply concerned by the country. Trade between China and DPRK started from 1950’s. The development of the two countries’bilateral trade relationship is not only due to their economic complementarity, more importantly, is the strategic requirement of the two countries. The nuclear explosion experiment will surely affect the trade relation between China and DPRK, but it will not influence their strategic economic cooperation in the long run. China will implement the 1718 resolution by the UN and carry out the normal business cooperation with DPRK. The economic cooperation between China and DPRK will develop in a healthy and sustainable state in the future. The development of economic cooperation between China and DPRK is not only beneficial to DPRK’s economic development, so as to help the country break away from its economic difficulty in a short-term, but also beneficial to strengthen the country’s self-confidence, so as to help the country open itself and carry out reform, and will finally be propitious to the peaceful settlement of the nuclear-weapon issue in DPRK.

朴齊家의 “詩畵境相通”론과 中國 文人畵論 관련 硏究

김철(Jin Zhe) 가천대학교 아시아문화연구소 2007 아시아문화연구 Vol.13 No.-

In order to do further analysis to Park Qijia, the famous Korean Poet’s characteristics in his literature theory and literary creation, this thesis does research on Park Qijia’s theory of poetry and painting are interlinked in realm in multi-aspect. At first, the thesis discusses the view to poetry, painting and calligraphy of Park Qijia. He is a high-level literati with three skills above, so no one can do better than him in analyzing the relevance and interlink of poetry and painting, and these skills became the cognitive basis that he accepted and used Painting Theory of Chinese Literati flexibly. Secondly, the Poetry Aesthetics opinion that poetry and painting are interlinked in realm he desired is his creative opinion by developing, thorough understanding and original accepting the poetry and painting theory at that time and Chinese ancient theory of poetry and painting are consistent. We can know about his unique opinion of Chinese painting skills by his poetry on paintings or some poetry related paintings. Meanwhile, his flexibility in the use of unique theory of poetry and painting became the turning point that his theory got a new realm. At last, according to his articles or poetry on paintings and his other related poetry, the thesis does further analysis on his vision of poetry, painting and calligraphy’s creation, literati’s accomplishment and characteristics of his poetry on paintings. Many of his poetry on paintings that expressed his feelings, also showed his unique opinion in theory of paintings or poetry and painting are interlinked. He paid more attention on the expressing of poetry’s meaning, because he accepted the opinion of Nanzong School in painting theory, and affected by Eight Eccentrics of Yangzhou in Qing Dynasty, so he got the painting concept of expressing meaning for first. The theory of his poetry and painting came into existenceon the basis of this concept. As his description that poetry and painting are interlinked on the point of meaning rather than forms, the art realm of harmony of meaning and scene is the so-called theory of poetry and painting are interlinked in realm.

조선조 후기 朴齊家와 屈原 관련 연구

김철(Jin Zhe) 가천대학교 아시아문화연구소 2008 아시아문화연구 Vol.14 No.-

The paper set forth the correlation between two famous poets, Park Qijia in the late Dynasty of Korea and Qu Yuan in China. Park was talented in literature and he was a man with lofty ideals for his country and people. However, as he was a civilian and was in low social status, he could not show his talent and ideals in politics. So Park felt pressure and grievance from every aspect. In that condition, he infatuated with Li’sao and Chu’ci written by Qu Yuan and was affected by them deeply. The paper emphasize on correlation between Park Qijia and Qu Yuan, and Li’sao, which is his masterpieces. Not only in personality, but also in style of his poems, Park was affected by Qu Yuan in different degree. In personality, he advocated Qu Yuan’s strong will, justice and care for the fate. In literature, he maintained the feature of tragic and romantic in Li’sao. He accepted the unique content and style in Qu Yuan’s poetic literature in a positive attitude. In addition, he used these features in his own poems and got good results. It’s not only an innovation and progress in his literary creation, but also a contribution for development of Korean literature.

『筆譚』을 통해 본 申翠微와 청대 문인 교류 양상 및 그 학문적 경향

김철(Jin Zhe) 가천대학교 아시아문화연구소 2009 아시아문화연구 Vol.16 No.-

Shen Cuiwei, the person we research in this paper, was a scholarbureaucrat in the later of Lee Dynasty. He once came to China twice as ambassador. Like any other ambassadors, Shen made use of leisure time after he completed his diplomatic mission to communicate with Chinese scholars and wrote all them down concretely. Conversation by Writing was his composing during his first period of stay in Yanjing. As the series of Rehe Journal of Korean,Conversation by Writing was found in China in recent period instead of being found in Korea. The book will be great helpful to the research of Shen and the comprehension of exchange history between China and Korea. Although, the book came out later than Hong Darong’s Dairy for Meeting Friends, Park Zhiyuan’s Wangyanglu, Hujing Scripts,Liu Demu’s Scripts for Companionship in Yantai in the later of Lee Dynasty, its value was approved widely because of its feature. Even so, there are still some matters for regret in the research of Shen and his Conversation by Writing. As a basic segment in the research of scripts of companionship in the later of Lee Dynasty, the paper confirms the importance of Conversation by Writing in the exchange history of culture between China and Korea by analyzing the status of companionship and communication between the author and Chinese scholars and his learning tendency, as well as pays attention to the problems above. The paper may give some references to the research of Rehe Journal of Korean.

소아 Helicobacter pylori 감염에서 위 상피세포의 증식과 세포사

정지아,김철,한운섭,서정완,Jung, Ji-Ah,Zhe, Jin,Han, Woon-Sup,Seo, Jeong-Wan 대한소아소화기영양학회 2002 Pediatric gastroenterology, hepatology & nutrition Vol.5 No.1

목적: 소아기는 알코올이나 약물 등에 의한 자극이 거의 없는 시기로 H. pylori 감염의 자연 경과와 단기간의 영향을 연구하기에 적합한 시기이다. 최근 H. pylori 감염의 기전으로 중요시되고 있는 위상피세포 증식과 세포사에 대해 소아에서 알아보고자 하였다. 방법: 1996년 5월부터 2001년 6월까지 이화여자대학교 목동병원 소아과에서 소화기 증상으로 내시경을 시행하여 H. pylori 감염으로 진단된 58예와 감염 음성 40예를 대상으로 하였다. H. pylori 감염 양성은 조직학적으로 H. pylori 균이 관찰되고, CLO 검사와 ureC PCR이 전부 양성인 경우로 하였다. 위생검 조직에서 개정된 시드니 체계를 이용하여 조직 소견을 분석하고, proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) 발현으로 위 상피세포 증식의 정도를, in situ terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferasemediated dUTP nick-end labeling (TUNEL) 방법으로 세포사의 정도를 조사하였다. 결과: 1) H. pylori 감염 양성에서 다핵형 중성구의 활동성(P=0.000), 만성 염증(P=0.000), 상피손상(P=0.000), 림프여포(P=0.000)의 정도가 감염 음성에 비하여 유의하게 높았다. H. pylori 감염 양성에서 장형화생은 관찰되지 않았다. 2) H. pylori 감염 양성에서 세포 증식 지표는 $67.8{\pm}18.13$으로, 음성 $54.8{\pm}14.46$에 비하여 유의하게 높았다(P=0.000). 세포 증식 지표는 H. pylori 밀도가 증가할수록(r=0.277, P=0.007), 다핵형 중성구의 활동성이 증가할수 (r=0.280, P=0.007), 만성염증이 증가할수록(r=0.284, P=0.006) 증가하였다. 3) 세포사 지표는 H. pylori 감염 양성에서 $0.44{\pm}0.447$, 음성에서 $0.14{\pm}0.196$으로 감염 양성에서 음성보다 유의하게 높았다(P=0.000). 세포사 지표는 H. pylori 밀도가 증가할수록(r=0.472, P=0.000), 다핵형 중성구의 활동성이 증가할수록(r=0.370, P=0.001), 만성 염증이 증가할수록(r=0.483, P=0.000) 증가하였다. 4) 세포 증식 지표가 증가할수록 세포사 지표는 유의하게 증가하였다(r=0.353, P=0.003). 결론: H. pylori 감염 소아에서 세포 증식 지표와 세포사 지표가 유의하게 증가하였으며 상관성도 유의하였다. 이는 소아에서 위 상피세포 증식과 세포사가 H. pylori의 병인에 중요함을 시사하며, 앞으로 세포 증식과 세포사의 기전, 유발 요인 외에 다른 병독 인자와의 관련성에 대한 연구가 필요하리라 생각된다. Purpose; Dysregulation of gastric epithelial cell proliferation and apoptosis are important in development of ulcer, atrophy and neoplasia in Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of infection of H. pylori on gastric epithelial cell proliferation and apoptosis in children. Methods: Histological grading by updated Sydney system, PCNA immunostaining and TUNEL method were performed in H. pylori positive (N=58) and negative (N=40) gastric biopsy specimens. Results: In H. pylori positive children, there were significantly higher grade of polymorphonuclear neutrophil activity (P=0.000), chronic inflammation (P=0.000), epithelial damage (P=0.000) and lymphoid follicles (P=0.000) than in H. pylori negative children. Intestinal metaplasia was not seen in H. pylori positive children. PCNA index was significantly different between H. pylori positive children ($67.8{\pm}18.13$) and H. pylori negative children ($54.8{\pm}14.46$, P=0.000). There was positive correlation between PCNA index and H. pylori density (r=0.277, P=0.007), polymorphonuclear neutrophil activity (r=0.280, P=0.007) and chronic inflammation (r=0.284, P=0.006). Apoptosis index of H. pylori positive children ($0.44{\pm}0.447$) was significantly higher than of H. pylori negative children ($0.14{\pm}0.196$, P=0.000). There was positive correlation between apoptosis index and H. pylori density (r=0.472, P=0.000), polymorphonuclear neutrophil activity (r=0.370, P=0.001) and chronic inflammation (r=0.483, P=0.000). There was positive correlation between PCNA index and apoptosis index (r=0.353, P=0.003). Conclusion: The PCNA and apoptosis index in H. pylori positive children were significantly higher than in H. pylori negative children. This study suggested that gastric epithelial cell proliferation and apoptosis are important to pathogenesis of H. pylori infection in children.

중국어권 학습자를 위한 중국 내 한국어교재 편찬 현황과 향후 개발 방향-2000년부터 2015년까지의 한국어교재를 중심으로-

민영란 ( Min Yinglan ),김철 ( Jin Zhe ) 한국문학언어학회(구 경북어문학회) 2018 어문론총 Vol.76 No.-

교수 학습 활동에서 교재는 매우 중요한 위치에 있다. 그것은 교재가 교육의 주체인 교사와 학습자를 연결시켜주고 교수-학습의 효과를 극대화시키기 때문이다. 어떤 교재를 편찬하여 사용하느냐 하는 것은 교육의 효율과 질적 수준에 직접적인 영향을 미친다. 따라서 교재 편찬에 신경을 써야 하는 것은 당연한 일이다. 외국어로서의 한국어 교육에서도 교재는 마찬가지로 중요성을 띠고 있다. 본 고에서는 2000년 이후부터 2015년까지 중국 내 한국어교재 개발 상황과 특징을 살펴보고 교재 개발과 편찬에서 존재하는 문제점들을 짚어보면서 나름대로의 대안을 제시하였다. 중국에서의 한국어 교육은 한·중 수교(1992)로부터 1999년 까지를 한국어 교육의 모색단계로, 2000년부터 2015년까지를 전성기로 본다. 본고는 주로 두 번째 전성기의 한국어교재 개발과 편찬 상황을 연구 대상으로 하면서 중점적으로 한국어 정독 교재와 문법 교재에서 나타나는 문제점들을 거시적인 관점에서 8가지로, 미시적인 관점에서 3가지로 고찰해 보았다. 마지막으로 교재 편찬에 있어서 교재 집필진의 구성, 교재의 편찬 원칙, 교재 문법 술어의 통일, 교재 내용의 실용성, 멀티미디어 기술을 도입한 동영상 교재의 편찬 등으로 나누어 대안을 제시하였다. As the foundation of teaching, textbook takes an important issue role in teaching process, because it can play the best results between the teachers and learners. The effect and quality can be influenced directly by textbook contents and how to use it. Therefore, it is necessary for us to compile textbook in great detail. The requirements are the same for Korean teaching as foreign language learning. The paper analyzes the develop situation and characteristics of Chinese textbook for Korean language during 2000-2015, then searches the problems in compilation process and puts forward some suggestions. The exploration stage of Korean teaching in China came out during 1992-1999, when China and South Korea established diplomatic relations, then it developed to its golden age during 2000-2015. The paper takes the second period as object of study, mainly analyzes 8 macroscopic problems and 3 microcosmic problems existed in Korean textbook of intensive reading and grammar. At last, in aspect of textbook compilation, the paper puts forward solutions on composition of editorial committee, compiling principles, unification of grammars and terminology, content’s practicability and application of multimedia.