농축산물 수출결정 요인의 공간파급효과 분석

한석호 ( Han Suk-ho ),안경애 ( Ahn Kyoung-ae ),김태영 ( Kim Taeyoung ) 한국유통경영학회(구 한국유통정보학회) 2018 유통경영학회지 Vol.21 No.3

우리나라 농축산물의 수출실적 변화에는 다양한 요인들이 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상 되는데, 본 연구에서는 농축산물 수출에 영향을 미치는 다양한 결정요인을 파악하고 이러한 결정요인이 우리나라 농축산물수출에 어떠한 효과를 갖는지 분석하고자 한다. 이러한 농축산물 수출결정요인 분석과 관련하여 양 국가간의 교역흐름을 설명하는데 가장 널리 활용되고 있는 것이 중력모형(Gravity Model)이다. 그러나 기존의 중력모형은 국가 간의 경제규모나 거리 등을 활용하지만 거리나 인접성에 따른 무역 상대국 간의 공간적 종속성을 명확하게 고려하지 못하는 한계가 있었다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 한계점을 극복하고자 수출결정 요인이 무역 당사국 간의 영향뿐만 아니라 인접성에 따른 무역 상대국들 간의 공간적 종속성을 고려한 공간중력모형(Spatial Gravity Model)을 사용하였으며, 수출결정 요인변화에 따른 무역 당사국 간의 영향뿐만 아니라 무역 상대국들 간의 파급효과(spillover effect)도 수출결정 모형에 함께 고려하여 분석하였다. 실증분석에서는 1996년부터 2015년까지 총 43개국에 대한 전체 농축산물 수출에 영향을 미치는 다양한 결정요인을 파악하고 이들 결정요인이 수출에 미치는 영향을 측정하였다. 분석결과 우리나라 농축산물 수출은 한국의 수출 국가뿐만 아니라, 인접 국가들의 수출량에도 시너지 효과를 일으켜 긍정적인 공간적 파급효과가 상당히 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. The purpose of this study is to identify the various determinants affecting the export of agricultural products and to analyze the effect of these determinants on the export of agricultural products in Korea. The gravity model is the most used to explain the flow of trade between the two countries in relation to the determinants of agricultural exports. However, the existing gravity model utilizes economies of scale and distance between countries, but there is a limit to the spatial dependency between trading partners due to distance or proximity. In order to overcome these limitations, this study used the Spatial Gravity Model which considers the spatial dependence of the exporting countries by the proximity as well as the influence of the exporting countries. In the empirical analysis, various determinants affecting total agricultural exports to 43 countries were identified from 1996 to 2015, and the effect of these determinants on exports was measured. As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a positive spatial spillover effect in agricultural exports of Korea.

농업경영체 등록정보를 활용한 농업직불제 소득효과 분석

한석호(Suk-Ho Han),채광석(Gwang-Seok Chae) 한국산학기술학회 2016 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.17 No.5

정부는 시장개방에 따른 농가의 경영불안정을 완화하고 농가소득보전을 위해 다양한 형태의 직접지불제를 운용하고 있다. 그러나 농업부문의 직불제는 농업정책의 중심으로 농가소득 안정화의 중요한 역할을 수행하는 핵심적인 정책수단으로 자리잡고 많은 예산이 지출됨에도 불구하고 직불금 수급실태와 소득안정기여도 등 정책효과에 대한 분석이 미흡한 실정이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 농식품부의 2014년과 2015년의 농업경영체 D.B.를 이용하여 직불금 농가단위 실태분석, 시사점을 도 출하고, 제도의 성과평가를 시도하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 평균 거시지표를 활용한 농업분석 등 기존의 연구 틀에서 벗어 나, 경영체 DB를 활용하여 농가단위 제도의 성과평가를 시도하고 시사점을 도출한 것이 특징이라 할 수 있다. 직불금 수급실 태와 성과평가를 시도한 결과, 직불금 수급액 분포가 정상분포곡선보다 왼쪽으로 많이 치우친 것을 알 수 있었다. 2014년 농업경영체DB에 의하면 전체 농업경영체의 약 절반 수준인 49.3%의 농가가 연간 10만 원도 안 되는 직불금을 수령하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 영농규모가 클수록 소득증대효과와 소득안정화효과 모두 크게 나타났는데, 이는 면적에 비례해서 직 불금이 높았기 때문이다. 고령농업경영체일수록 직불금에 의한 농가소득 기여도가 높게 나타난 점은 장점으로 평가되나, 영 농규모가 0.5ha미만의 소규모 농가의 직불금의 농가소득 기여도가 3% 수준에 불과한 반면, 10ha이상의 대규모 농가의 직불 금 농가소득 기여도가 29.4%로 높게 분석되었다. 대규모 농가는 소규모 농가보다 농업소득은 10배 차이인데, 직불금 수급액 은 110배를 더 받는 것으로 분석되어, 향후 직불제도 정책개선 및 수정이 요구된다. The government has run and managed various forms of direct payment systems, such as the paddy and field direct payment, to ease the instability of farm incomes with respect to market opening, and preserve farm income. Direct payments to the agricultural sector is a center in the key policy instrument that plays an important role in income stabilization. Despite the large amount of spending in the farm unit, the status of direct payment, and policy effects the analysis of direct payments, such as stability of income contribution, are insufficient. This paper, using the farm unit DB in 2014 and 2015, performed farm level analysis of direct payment, and derived the implications of the performance evaluation system. As a result, the distribution of direct payment showed considerable bias to the left side compared to the normal distribution curve. Approximately half of the farms (49.3%) in 2014 DB should receive below 100,000 won per year by a direct payment. A larger-scale farm showed a significantly increased income effect and income stabilizing effect because direct payments make higher contributions to farm income in proportional to the area. In the more elderly farmers, a high contribution by direct payment to farm income was found to be an advantage; however, in small-scale farms of less than 0.5ha, direct payment contribution on farm household income was only 3%. In large-scale farms, 10ha or more, the contribution to farm income were found to be 29.4%. The income of large farms was 10 times larger than small farmers, and the direct payment entitlements that were received were 110 times larger. Through this policy, direct payments are required for future improvements and modifications.

한 · EU FTA 농업부문 사후영향평가

한석호(Suk-Ho Han) 한국산학기술학회 2016 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.17 No.7

FTA 이행이 가속화될수록 기 체결된 FTA 대상국별 농산물 양허 내용, 농산물 교역 등을 분석하여 국내 농업에 미치는 영향을 사후 평가하는 것이 중요한 과제로 등장되고 있다. 한·EU FTA는 우리나라가 체결한 거대 FTA 중 하나로, 2016년 7월에 이행 5년 차로 통상절차법에 따라 농업에 대한 사후영향평가에 대한 연구수요를 대비하는 데, 본 연구의 목적 이 있다. 또한, 이러한 평가를 통해 수정 및 보완이 필요한 부분에 대한 정책방향이 제시되어야 농업계와 비농업계의 상반된 주장을 보다 객관적으로 평가할 수 있다. 현재 일반적인 기 체결 FTA에 대한 사후 경제적 영향평가는 발효시점을 기준으로 전후를 비교하여 무역수지가 변화하였는가를 평가하는 것이나, 이는 순수한 FTA 효과라 할 수 없으며, 환율, 국제거시지표의 변화, 수출입국의 기상이변 및 병해충 발생 등 수급변화가 모두 혼재한 상황으로 객관적인 기 체결 FTA에 대한 경제적 영향 평가를 할 수 없었다. 그러나 이번 연구로 시도된 동태적 사후영향평가방법으로 한·EU 발효 후 4년간의 전체 농업GDP 누적 감소액은 2,178억 원으로 계측되었다. 가장 큰 영향을 받은 품목은 돼지를 중심으로 축산물이고, 그 다음으로 곡물, 채소 순으 로 분석되었다. 또한 이번 연구로 시도된 동태적 사후영향평가방법론으로 향후 진행될 사후정책평가연구에 기여를 할 것으 로 기대한다. As the FTAs' implementations are accelerated, an Ex-post assessment, such as an analysis of the tariff schedule and agricultural trade has been emerging as an important national issue for an agricultural sector Korea-EU FTA, which was to be implemented in the five years from July 2016 as one of the giant FTA. The purpose of this study was to determine the demand of an ex-post assessment on agricultural sector as a trade negotiation procedural law. In addition, by providing policy direction for the agricultural policy part requiring amendments and supplements through ex-post assessment, the conflicting arguments between agricultural and non-agricultural sector can be evaluated more objectively. The current evaluation method on the economic impact ex-post assessment of a FTA is generally compared using the change in trade balance before and after the time of FTA implementation. On the other hand, this comparison cannot be said to be the pure FTA effects and objective, tightening economic impact assessment of the FTA in all combined situations, such as the effects of exchange rates and international macroeconomic changes and climate change & occurrence of pests. Over the last 4 years, however, Korea-EU FTA's total accumulated agricultural GDP loss was measured to be 2,178 billion by these research attempts with dynamic analysis as ex-post assessment methodology. The greatest impact was mainly livestock and pork followed by cereals and vegetables. In addition, this research is expected to contribute to policy evaluations in the future.

일본산 배 SPS 수입금지 조치 해제의 사전분석

한석호(Suk-Ho Han),서홍석(Hong-Seok Seo),염정완(Jung-Won Youm) 한국산학기술학회 2017 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.18 No.1

본 논문은 국산 배와 일본산 배에 대한 국내소비자의 무차별 선호를 가정한 가격격차 방법론을 적용하여 일본산 배의 수입금지 조치 해제 시 경제적 · 정량적 영향을 사전에 분석하는 방법론을 소개한다. 방법론을 이용하여 2018년 일본산 배의 수입허용 가정 시 시뮬레이션을 수행한 결과, 연평균 5만 톤의 일본산 배가 국내시장에 유입될 것으로 추정된다. 이 수입량은 국내 배 가격하락 뿐만 아니라 국산 배 생산량 감소를 야기하여 국내 배 생산 감소효과를 초래하여, 연평균 930억원 수준의 직접적인 피해가 예상된다. 국내 배 재배면적과 생산량은 베이스라인 대비 0.7%, 1.4% 감소할 것으로 예측된다. 또한, 생산 · 소비 대체재를 포함한 다른 품목 부문에 미치는 간접적인 영향을 합한 전체 농업분야의 연평균 감소액은 약 2,090억 원 수준으로 베이스라인 대비 0.4% 감소할 것으로 전망된다. 본 연구에서 제안한 SPS 수입금지 조치 해제 시나리오 영향평가는 기존에 수행해오던 양허안 중심의 시나리오 분석과 병행하여, 메가 FTA 참여 시 농업분야 파급영향의 사전분석 방법론을 개선할 것으로 기대된다. This paper proposed a methodology to analyze the economic and quantitative effects of lifting the import ban on Japanese pears by applying a price gap approach in the absence of any preference for either type of pear. Assuming that Korea will allow Japanese pear imports in 2018, the simulation results show that an annual average of 50,000 tons will flow into the domestic market from Japan. These imports will cause a decrease in the price and production of domestic pears, which would have a direct effect on the domestic pear industry, leading to an annual average reduction of 93 billion won. The cultivation area and production quantity are projected to be decreased by 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, compared to the baseline. Also, the annual average reduction in the overall agriculture sector is predicted to be about 209 billion won, which is a 0.4% reduction compared to the baseline. This research is expected to improve the methodologies available for proactive analysis, with the existing analysis focused on customs tariffs when Korea considers joining mega-FTAs.

기 체결 FTA 농업부문 사후영향평가와 시사점

한석호(Suk-Ho Han),이수환(Suhwan Lee),염정완(Jung-Won Youm),지성태(Seong-Tae Ji) 한국산학기술학회 2017 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.18 No.9

본 연구는 동태적 분석방법을 이용한 경제적 사후영향평가를 통해 기 체결한 14건의 FTA 이행이 국내 농업부문에 미친 영향을 분석하였다. 2015년 기준 전체 농산물 수입액 중 FTA 체결국으로부터의 수입 비중은 82.4%에 달한다. 분석에는 농업부문 세부 품목별 피해액 계측이 용이하고 품목별, 용도별 관세철폐일정을 모형에 반영할 수 있는 장점을 가진 부분균형모형이면서 농업부문에 국한된 일반균형모형인 한국농촌경제연구원의 KASMO 2015 모형이 사용되었다. 분석 결과, FTA 이행으로 축산업과 과수 산업을 중심으로 농업 생산액이 상당히 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 기존의 선행연구 대부분이 개별 FTA에 대한 사후영향평가에 국한되었으며, 이는 다수의 FTA 이행으로 무역창출과 무역전환 효과, FTA 누적효과 등이 혼재되어 있다는 점을 반영하지 못한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 농업부문에서의 FTA 효과를 보다 객관적이고 종합적으로 평가하였고, 이는 향후 FTA 국내보완대책 수정·보완에 필요한 정책방향을 제시하는데 어느 정도 기여하였다. 물론, FTA 효과에서 국내보완대책과 일반 농정사업의 성과를 분리할 수 있는 보다 정교한 분석이 추가적으로 이루어질 필요가 있다. This study analyzed the impact of the implementation of 14 FTAs on the domestic agricultural sector through aneconomic post-impact assessment using the dynamic analysis method. As a result of the implementation of the FTAs, agricultural production decreased significantly, mainly in the livestock and fruit sectors. Most of the previous studieswere limited to the post-impact assessment of individual FTAs, which does not reflect the fact that the implementation of a number of FTAs results ina combinationof trade creation, trade transitions, and FTA accumulation effects. Therefore, this study provides amore objective and comprehensive evaluation of the effects of FTAs in the agricultural sector, and contributes to some extent to the evaluation of the policy directions necessary for revising and supplementing the domestic measures needed to supplement the FTAs. Of course, a more sophisticated analysis is needed to separate the impact of these complementary domestic measures and the performance of the general agricultural project.

농가인구예측 모형 개발 및 중장기 전망

한석호(Han, Suk-Ho) 한국산학기술학회 2015 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.16 No.6

농촌지역의 인구감소는 농가호수 및 농업취업자 감소로 연결되어 결과적으로 농업총소득에 영향을 미치게 된다. 또한 농가인구는 농업구조의 근간으로 농가인구 및 농촌인구의 감소는 향후 시행될 농업정책에도 영향을 주어 농업 생산성 이 악화될 우려가 있다. 이 연구는 성별·연령별 농가인구모형 개발을 통해 향후 농업 정책 수립에 필요한 인구 전망치를 제시 하며, 동시에 다른 연구 및 필요한 기초자료를 제공하는데 그 목적이 있으며, 소득 변화 등 경제 변화에 따른 정책 시뮬레이 션이 가능하도록 모형을 개발하는데 목적을 두었다. 기존 연구와 달리 본 연구는 농가인구모형의 핵심사항인 이농률에 대해 몇 가지 가정을 하거나, 인구전체에 대하여 하나의 방정식을 추정한 후 성별 및 연령별로 배분하는 기존방식에서 벗어나서 성별 및 연령별 이농률 방정식을 모두 추정하여 성별·연령별로 이농 반응의 상이함을 규명하고, 각 코호트별로 투여하여 전망 한다는 것을 차이점으로 볼 수 있다. 또한 기존의 농업시뮬레이션모형과 연계하여 각종 정책 시행에 대한 농가인구 변화양상 시뮬레이션이 가능해진 점을 들 수 있다. A population decline in rural area is correlated with the number of household, with agricultural workers, as a result, affects the farming income. Agricultural population is a foundation of agriculture structure. Agricultural population decline influences agricultural policies to be implemented for the future and there is concern about slowdown in productivity. The purpose of this study is to build the ability to use the model and conduct applied analyses of various kinds and to make rational agricultural policies by forecasting and analyzing agricultural population change. Unlike previous studies, which have some assumptions about the giving-up farming rate (GFR) of the key points on the agricultural population model or, After estimating only one equation with respect to the total population, and then distribute by sex and age. This study was conducted to investigate the reactions are different from the farmhouse, gender, age by estimating giving-up farming rate (GFR) equations each gender & age. Through this research, we can find that Farm Population changes of the simulation can be performed for a variety of agricultural policy in conjunction with existing agricultural simulation models as well.

지역경제모형(KREI-REMO) 개선과 의사결정 지원시스템과의 연계

한석호(Suk-Ho Han),김경덕(Kyung-Duk Kim),이정민(Jeong-Min Lee) 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

The main purposes of this study are to build a decision-making support system of local rural self-government by using a revised model of KREI-REMO 2010 and to link the REMO with Rural Development Support System (KREI-RDSS). As the local self-government’s authority has expanded, they need a policy simulation model on rational decision-making to achieve their goals. To match their needs, KREI developed KREI-REMO in 2010. However, KREI-REMO 2010 was the first-stage project of the local self-government’s decision-making supporting system, and there were some limitations such as lack of important data and the difficulty of subdividing districts. In KREI-REMO 2011, we first divided the local district into 6 sectors rather than 3 as in KREI-REMO 2010. Each sector is then classified by population, employment, industrial production and local government finance, and each one of them is estimated by panel analysis. We predicted the 10-year baseline of each local area with the model. By doing so, KREI-REMO can perform economic and policy simulation under various conditions. Especially in the prediction of population at the local area level, we developed migration functions based on various migration theories including the gravity theory through a cohort model. We also tried to link KREI-REMO with Rural Development Support System (KREI-RDSS) to meet the purpose of this study, which is to build a decision-making support system of local rural self-government. Lastly, we illustrated the practical use of a user interface system as well.

부분균형모형을 이용한 전복 수급전망모형 구축에 관한 연구

한석호 ( Suk-ho Han ),장희수 ( Hee-soo Jang ),허수진 ( Su-jin Heo ),이남수 ( Nam-su Lee ) 한국수산경영학회 2020 수산경영론집 Vol.51 No.2

The purpose of this study is to construct an outlook model that is consistent with the “Fisheries Outlook” monthly published by the Fisheries Outlook Center of the Korea Maritime Institute(KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to abalone items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model(DEEM) system taking into account biological breeding and shipping time. The results of this study are significant in that they can be used as basic data for model development of various items in the future. In this study, due to the limitation of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated by using the recursive model construction method to be calculated directly as an inverse demand. A model was built in the form of a structural equation model that can explain economic causality rather than a conventional time series analysis model. The research results and implications are as follows. As a result of the estimation of the amount of young seashells planting, it was estimated that the coefficient of the amount of young seashells planting from the previous year was estimated to be 0.82 so that there was no significant difference in the amount of young seashells planting this year and last year. It is also meant to be nurtured for a long time after aquaculture license and limited aquaculture area(edge style) and implantation. The economic factor, the coefficient of price from last year was estimated at 0.47. In the case of breeding quantity, it was estimated that the longer the breeding period, the larger the coefficient of breeding quantity in the previous period. It was analyzed that the impact of shipments on the breeding volume increased. In the case of shipments, the coefficient of production price was estimated unelastically. As the period of rearing increased, the estimation coefficient decreased. Such result indicates that the expected price, which is an economic factor variable and that had less influence on the intention to shipments. In addition, the elasticity of the breeding quantity was estimated more unelastically as the breeding period increased. This is also correlated with the relative coefficient size of the expected price. The abalone supply and demand forecast model developed in this study is significant in that it reduces the prediction error than the existing model using the ecological equation modeling system and the economic causal model. However, there are limitations in establishing a system of simultaneous equations that can be linked to production and consumption between industries and items. This is left as a future research project.

한·중 농업정책시뮬레이션모형 구축 연구

한석호(Suk-Ho Han),전형진(Hyung-Jin Jeon),승준호(Jun-Ho Seung),이동필 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

With a 2010 population of more than 1.35 billion people, China is home to roughly 20 percent of the world’s inhabitants. This fact alone makes China’s demand for agricultural products a huge factor in how world prices of agricultural commodities behave. However, not only is China’s percentage of world population large, its share of world GDP is growing. With China’s real GDP expressed in U.S. dollars more than doubling from 2003 to 2010, China’s share of world GDP has increased from 4.0 percent in 2002 to 7.4 percent in 2010. Considering that agricultural producers in China are also facing constraints on the availability of land and water, which will make it difficult to sustain large increases in their agricultural production base, large jumps in demand for agricultural products within China could have profound effect on world markets, affecting other nations who are major suppliers or major importers of these goods. This study analyzed direct and indirect impacts of structural change in the supply and demand side of Chinese agriculture on the Korean economy based on the combination of the following models: China"s Agricultural Policy Simulation Model(CAPSIM), the modeling system of Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute(FAPRI) at the University of Missouri-Columbia in the U.S., and Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KREI-KASMO). In order to better understand the impact of Chinese agriculture and agricultural policies on Korean agriculture, we tried to forecast the long-term outlook of Chinese agriculture for 13 agricultural commodities on the supply and demand side based on CAPSIM through a co-project between the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI). Unfortunately, CAPSIM did not cover vegetables and fruits yet, so we tried to build structural models on these items and added some modules to CAPSIM to predict the future. In addition, through a co-project between Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri-Columbia (FAPRI-MU) and KREI, this study calculated the global impact of China"s structural change in demand in terms of price and trade volume. This analysis considered how a 10 percent increase in China’s domestic consumption of seven different commodities(rice, corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean products, beef, pork and chicken) would impact the world prices of these products, internal Chinese prices, and production and consumption of these goods within China as well as the rest of the world. To assess the changes from stronger than expected income levels in China, an additional study is conducted in which China’s real GDP is allowed to increase 10 percent. It is important to note that this analysis assumes that any increase in Chinese domestic consumption above and beyond production increases results in increased net imports. While the government has a history of using trade barriers to protect China’s domestic industries(some industries have been protected more than others), this analysis assumes that all additional demand will be met by increases in Chinese production or more imports. No assumptions are made about increased levels of trade protection. We anticipate that this study is a meaningful first-stage project to establish a world model to prepare for various FTAs and make supply-demand projections on world grain market for stabilization of domestic prices.

해외곡물시장정보시스템 운영사업

한석호(Suk-Ho Han),한근수(Keun-Soo Han),승준호(Jun-ho Seung),권나경(Na-kyung Kwon),신인애(In-Ae Shin),이동필 한국농촌경제연구원 2012 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-