우리나라 人口增加趨勢에 따른 理論的 傾向線의 推定

崔鍾碩 忠南大學校 1972 論文集 Vol.11 No.-

In this paper, the writer has estimated a model of the optimun curve by means of math ematical extrapolation based on logistic curue, using the census data since 1955 and mid-year population. The model of the optimum logistic curve of Korean is aasumed to be as follows : Y=53.147/1+1.4759e^-0.05049t Because this estimate is formed by mean of mathematical extrapolation, the expectation can be said to be optimistic, on the assumption that such a stable tendency as that of today will last. There will be a good deal of reliability on postcensal estimate of future population because this estimate is formed using the census data from around the demographic transition to the present day. We can guess at a saturation population by virtue of an estimate of logistic curve. The saturation population of Korea is estimated as 53,147,000 in this paper. We can guess at demographic transition by virtue of an estimate of simple logistic curve. In this paper we have found the fact that the demographic transition of Korea has been rapidly advancing since 1963.

고려후기 拜表禮의 창출·존속과 몽골 임팩트

최종석 서울대학교 규장각한국학연구원 2019 한국문화 Vol.0 No.86

This is the result of research on Bapyo(拜表) ritual in the Koryo dynasty. Here, Bapyo ritual is limited to certain ritual in which the Koryo monarch offers Pyomoon(表文), which is sent to the emperor, to his own ambassador. This type of Bapyo ritual started in 1302 and continued until the end of Chosun dynasty. In this paper, I identified the fact that Bapyo ritual started in 1302 and lasted in the end of Koryo dynasty. After that, I examined the context in which Bapyo ritual emerged during the Mongolian domination. Until Koryo performed Bapyo(拜表) ritual for the Mongolian emperor in 1302, it had never been conducted for China’s emperor at a country outside China’s territory. The holding of Bapyo ritual was not due to the fact that the diplomatic protocol between the emperor country and the lord, which had already existed finally began to implement. But it came from an unprecedented situation that the Koryo monarch was also the secretary of the Mongolian provincial government office, the minister of Chungdonghangsung(征東行省). Finally, I explained the reason why the ritual was inherited and survived to the end of Koryo. I investigated the fact that in terms of Bapyo ritual, the Koryo and the Ming dynasty together inherited relationship between Koryo and Mongol during the Mongolian domination, interpreting the relation in his own way. Through this, I tried to clarify the reason why the ritual was inherited and survived to the end of Koryo. This research work is also a task to find out that the “mutational” ritual stemming from the situation where the Koryo monarch is also the minister of Chungdonghangsung was reborn to obligatory and typical diplomatic ritual between the Chosun dynasty and the Ming․Ching dynasties.

韓國의 人口重心과 그 移動에 關한 硏究 : 1980年 人口센사스 結果分析 1980

崔鍾碩,朴錫潤 충남대학교 자연과학연구소 1981 忠南科學硏究誌 Vol.8 No.1

Migration of population in Korea would be assumed to have been characterzed by the transition of an external migration period into an internal migration period around 1950. In the present research to analyze the population redistribution during the period between 1955 and 1980, when the inter-regional migration in Korea had been in full swing. And then, we should like to make it clear that we have applied statistical method in dealing with this problem as follow: 1) We have relied upon the Census report for the population statistics material. 2) We have employed a map of the R.O.K. which is reduced to 1/250,000. 3) We have considered Gu.Si and Gun to be the same level in size and have dealt with them as unit region. 4) The center of population has been obtanined, based on the coordinates of the unit region(x_ij, y_ij) and the poptlation p_ij of concerned : x-·j = (??x_ijp_ij)/(??p_ij) y-·j = (??y_ijp_ij)/??p_ij ??p_ij = p·j x- = (??x-·jp·j)/??p·j = (??x_ijp_ij)/??p_ij y- = (??y-·jp·j)/(??p·j) = (??x_ijp_ij)/??p_ij To sum up, the population-center in Korea could be pointed out to have the following characteristics as shown on Table 3 and Fig 1. 5) It can be said to be linear 6) It can be said to have the vector of population-center advancing toward on Seoul.

人口豫測模型에 관한 硏究(1985)

崔鍾碩,申鉉山,姜正求 충남대학교 자연과학연구소 1986 忠南科學硏究誌 Vol.13 No.1

In this paper, the population projection is estimated by the method of extrapolation which is based on logistic curve. It is required that each time interval of input data is one year. But census is not usually done punctually. So we try to use the raw census data and corrected them by appropriate transformation. For the population projection, we use four kinds of data : Model Ⅰ annual report from 1955 to 1985, Model Ⅱ linear correction of inter census population from 1955 to 1985, Model Ⅲ Compound interest correction on inter census population from 1955 to 1985, Model Ⅳ five years moving average correction of all inter census population. Estimation by model Ⅰ is not good because of large error caused from wrong estimation of population between census. We get a low projection model Model Ⅱ P=5,314/(1+1.4904 EXP (-0.050756t)) × 10 exp((4) from the second try, a high projection model Model Ⅲ P=5,429/(1+1.5438 EXP (-0.04973t)) × 10 exp(4) from the third try and a medium projection model Model Ⅳ P=5,379/(1+1.5190 EXP (-0.050392t)) × 10 exp((4) from the fourth try. We can guess at a saturation population and at a demographic transition point by virtue of an estimation of this logistic curve. The saturation population of Korea is estimated as 5,314×10 exp (4) by model Ⅱ in this paper. We have found the fact that the domographic transition point of Korea has been rapidly advancing since 1963.

最適 線形 結合 推定量에 관한 硏究

최종석,이낙영,박래현 충남대학교 자연과학연구소 1983 忠南科學硏究誌 Vol.10 No.1

Sample mean and Sample median are two estimators which have some merits as an estimator of the population mean. As a new estimator of the population mean, the optimal linear conbination of the sample mean and the sample median whose asymptotic joint distribution is bivariate normal is considered. This paper also deals the efficiency of this optimal linear combination estimator by adapting the A.R.E as a performance criterion. As a result this optimal linear combination estimator is extremely good when the population distribution is uniform.

主成分分析에 의한 入學考査 評價分析 : 忠南大, 1975 Choong-nam University, 1975

崔鍾碩,李東洙 충남대학교 자연과학연구소 1975 學術硏究誌 Vol.2 No.2

A principal component analysis is the fundamental method in a multivariate analysis. The purpose ,of this study is to summarize many kind of variables correlated each other into a few total characteristics values irrelevant to each other. The results of the Choong-nam University entrance examination is analyzed with the method of principal component analysis. The summarization of the results is as follows : 1) The order of the first principal component in natural division was mathematics, science and preliminary college entrance examination and the second principal component was korean language, social science and oral examination. 2) The first principal component in humanities and social divisions was social science, korean history and oral examination and the second principal component was mathematics, preliminary college entrance examination and foreign language.

推定函數의 有理整函數에 依한 近似法

崔鍾碩 大田工業高等專門學校 1967 論文集 Vol.2 No.-

확률변수 x의 값이 등간격으로 주어진 경우 임의의 함수 f(x)에 대용되는 유리정함수 g(x)를 채택하는 방법으로 일반적으로 보간법을 흔히 이용하고 있다. 그러나, f(x)의 변화가 급격하여 요철이 심할 경우에는 그 원인이 실험 또는 관측의 부정확에 있거나 기타의 이유에서 생기는 것은 별문제로 치고, 함수의 보간법으로는 부적당한 점이 있다고 생각된다. (특히 그 방법으로 보간미분법을 실행하려 할 때는 더욱이나 부적하다고 생각된다.) 여기에서 논하고자 하는 해석적 근사법은 그 결점을 보완하고자 하는데 있다. 지금 변량 xi에 대응하는 f(x)의 실험치를 yi라 하고, 직각좌표 방안지상에 점(xi, yi)를 취하여, 대용하려는 추정함수g(x)를 이 모든 점을 지나게 함으로써 얻은 것이 일반으로 말하는 보간법이다. 그러나, 이것만이 유일한 근사법은 아닐 이다. 모든 점 전체의 분포로 볼 때 이 제점을 지나지 않더라도 되도록 이 제점에 가까이 지나는 원활한 곡선으로 대용하는 것이 더욱 이상적일 것이다. 그래서 이 추정함수를 구하는 방법으로 오차론을 이용해 본 것이다.

韓國의 人口再分布에 관한 計量的 分析

崔鍾碩,장은선 충남대학교 1996 忠南科學硏究誌 Vol.23 No.1

Several projects for the national economic development plannings since 1960's have brought a tremendous change in the whole nation socially, economically as well as geo-demographically. Since 1975's, advanced industrialization with high technology, achieving a highly economic development, has accelerated urbanization, which on the other hand resulted in a serious lack of labor in the rural area. This serious unbalanced distribution of the population between the urban and the rural area has caused not only political and societal gap between the two areas but also the inefficient use of the land. We, with a very dense population, think that the above problems could be solved partly through strong policies of restraint on population growth and on population migration into the urban area. This study has been done as a base for the policies in the followings. 1. In order to observe the phenomenon of population migration, we analyze time series intra and inter-migration and total migration. 2. To investigate the cyclic phenomenon, seasonal variation analysis on one-year base is considered additionally. 3. We investigate, in macro sense, redistribution of population by showing the migration trend based on the center of population gravity and that of geographic gravity. 4. We end up this study with the possible suggestions for the policy making on the population problem after discussing some predictions of migration trend.

數理的 外揷法에 의한 韓國의 將來人口 推計 및 人口再分布의 計量的 分析

崔鍾碩 충남대학교 자연과학연구소 1976 學術硏究誌 Vol.3 No.1

In this paper, the writer has estimated a model of the population growth curve and a population center during the period of 1955 through 1975. 1) Population projection by the method of extrapolation The writer has estimated- a model of the optimum curve by means of mathematical extrapolation based on logistic curve, using the census data since 1955 and mid-year population. The model of the optimum logistic curve o i Korea is estimated to be as the following; p=54.732/1+1.5509e^(-0.04838t) (unit : 1,000,000). We can guess a t a saturation population and at a demographic transition by virtue of an estimation of this logistic curve. The saturation population of Korea is estimated as 54, 732,000 in this paper. In this paper we have found the fact that the demographic transition of Korea has been rapidly advancing since 1963. 2) Center of population In the present research, we are dealing with analysis of migratory fluctuation on the population center in order to analyse the population redistribution during the period between 1955 and 1975. The center of population has been obtained, based on the coordinates of the unit region (x_(ij), y_(ij)) and the population p_(ij) of the region concerned ◁그림 삽입▷ (원문을 참조하세요) To sum up the population-center in Korea could t e pointed out to have the following characteristics as shown on Table 5, 6 and Fig 1. It can be said to have the rector of population center advancing toward on Seoul. It can be said to be on the acceleration.

人口豫測模型에 관한 硏究

崔鍾碩,李萬鎬 충남대학교 자연과학연구소 1982 忠南科學硏究誌 Vol.9 No.1

In this paper, the population projection is estimated by the method of extrapolation which is based on logistic curve. It is required that each time interval of input data is 1. But census is not usually done punctually. So we try to use the raw census data and correct them by appropriate transformation. For the population projection, we use three kinds of data: (1) annual report from 1955 to 1980, (2) correction of inter census population from 1961 to 1979, (3) correction of all inter census population, the corrections are based on the census populations with assumption of equal increasing rate. Estimation by first data is not good because of large error caused from wrong estimation of population between census. We get a medium projection model. p=(5307.9)/(1+1.4592 ℓ^-0.049603t) from the second try, and a low projection model P=(5083.6)/(1+1.3837ℓ^-0.05257t) from the third.