논문 : 배당의 미래이익 예측력과 외국인투자자

강태구 ( Tae Goo Kang ),이창우 ( Chang Woo Lee ),남혜정 ( Hye Jeong Nam ) 명지대학교 금융지식연구소 2013 금융지식연구 Vol.11 No.3

본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 외국인 투자자들의 지분율에 따라 어떻게 달라지는지 검증하였다. 일반적으로 배당지급은 기업의 미래이익을 예측하는 데 유용한 정보로 여겨지고 있으나, 이에 대한 실증연구결과들은 혼재되어 있다. 또한 배당의사결정과 관련된 연구들은 투자자들의 배당선호현상에 따라 기업의 배당의사결정이 영향을 받고 있음을 제시하고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정에 외국인투자자가 미치는 영향이 매우 높게 나타나고 있다. 이는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구가 높은 경우, 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래이익에 대한 사적정보의 전달수단이기 보다는 단기적으로 배당에 대한 투자자들의 요구를 반영한 결과로 나타날 수 있음을 보여준다. 나아가 이러한 배당의사결정은 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 낮게 만들 것으로 예측된다. 본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 재검증하고, 나아가 외국인지분율에 따라 배당의 미래이익예측력이 달라지는지 검증하였다. 먼저, 배당의 미래이익 예측연구들은 자기자본이익률(ROE)의 평균회귀(mean reverting)현상과 배당증가 또는 배당감소가 이익변화에 미치는 비대칭적 영향을 고려하고 있으나, 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 여러 가지 변수들을 통제하지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 선행연구에서 제시되고 있는 기업규모(SIZE), 성장성(SGR), 부채비율(LEV), 그리고 연도더미를 추가하여, 이를 통제하고 난 후에도 배당의 미래이익예측력이 여전히 존재하는지 검증하였다. 둘째, 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 기업의 배당의사결정에 영향을 미치는 특정집단에 의하여 달라지는지 검증하였다. 2000년부터 2007년까지 배당지급을 한 6,720 기업-년 표본을 대상으로 분석한 결과, 기본 모형뿐만 아니라 여러 통제변수를 포함한 모형에서도 우리나라 기업들의 배당변화는 미래 1년 뒤의 이익변화와 유의한 양의 관계를 나타냈으나, 미래 2년 뒤의 이익변화와는 유의하지 않았다. 또한 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 추가한 모형의 설명력(R2=0.46)이 기본모형의 설명력(R2=0.28)보다 급격히 증가함을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 이러한 관계는 외국인지분율을 통제할 경우, 유의하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래전망에 근거하여 이루어지기보다는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구를 반영하는 수단으로 사용되고 있음을 보여준다. 즉 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정이 외국인투자자들의 배당요구를 반영하여 이루어짐을 알 수 있다. 본 연구는 대부분의 선행연구들이 외국인투자자와 배당성향간의 동시적인 관계에 대한 결과들을 제시한 반면에, 외국인투자자가 우리나라 기업들의 배당의사결정에 미치는 영향과 함께 배당의 미래이익예측력의 관점에서 살펴보았다는 점에 의의가 있다. This paper investigates whether the dividend payout predicts future earnings and the predictability varies depending on the proportion of investors. Specifically, this paper examines the effect of foreign investors on the relationship between dividend change and the predictability of future earnings in Korean firms. Reasoning from the hypothesis that dividend changes convey new information about a firm`s future profitability, a dividend increase is seen as a positive signal about the firm`s future earnings and profitability. However, the results from prior studies are controversial. Some papers have suggested that dividend changes would mean different things depending on a firm`s dividend policy and the motives behind its managers` decision to pay dividends. In addition, a firm`s governance is considered as one of important factors that affects dividend policy. In the Korean security market, foreign investors owned about 38% of the stock in 2007. As the percentage of foreign ownership had grown, many researchers have analyzed the effect of this ownership on dividend policy. However, prior studies found mixed results and have focused on the association between foreign investors and the level of the dividend or dividend change. They also suggest that predictability of dividend on future earnings is influenced by applied assumption on earnings and other factors like governance as well. We revisit the dividend signaling issue in the light of the catering theory of dividends suggested by Baker and Wurgler (2004). Lintner (1956) argued that managers unwilling to change payout ratio without any important change on the firm`s future performance. Won and Kim (1992) report that managers are more likely to be concerned about the internal factors such as net income, divisible surplus, predicted future performance, and the shareholders` preference for dividend policy. More importantly, several studies suggest that the foreign investors have a significant effect on the Korean market. Park (2004) reports that foreign investors` participation in firms generally pushes up the dividend payments while pulling down investments made in facilities no matter which industry a company is in. Sul and Kim (2006) show that those companies whose majority shareholders are foreign investors tend to pay higher dividends than others whose majority shareholders are domestic investors. In contrast to negative effect of foreign investor, there are empirical studies claiming positive impact of foreign investor in Korean market. Ahn, Shin, and Chang (2005) suggest that foreign investors prefer firms with lower information asymmetry. The study also shows that foreign investors can effectively monitor the management of firm in lessening information asymmetry. Similarly, Park and Lee (2006) suggest that foreign investors` participation in investment of domestic firms can help them make more efficient management decision by improving their corporate governance. Thus, Park and Lee claim that it is problematic to generalize the negative role of foreign investors in the Korean market. Based on this argument, we predict that if foreign investors play an effective monitoring role in a dividend policy, dividend change for firms with higher level of foreign investors is a good indicator in predicting future earnings than for firms with lower level of foreign investors. However, if foreign investors play a negative role in dividend decision process, predictability of dividend decreases. We test this prediction by using the modified model with several control variables that can affect earnings changes. Using 6,720 observations from 1993 to 2007, we find that the dividend change predicts future earnings for next one year relative to the dividend change year. Specifically, the coefficient on RDIV is 0.045 (t=6.85) and this indicates the dividend increases is a good indicator in predicting future earnings. When it comes to model specification, adjusted R2 of modified model is greater than that of the basic model, which means that the modified model is well specified in explaining earnings changes. The result of the effect of foreign investors on predictability of dividend is not significant. This finding implies that managers, on average, decide to pay dividend as a response to demand from foreign investors.

실무연구(實務硏究) : 가족관계등록부와 제적부의 정정

이창우 ( Chang Wou Lee ) 법조협회 2012 法曹 Vol.61 No.1

호적제도에서 제적된 호적은 전 호적으로서 신분관계를 공시하는 공부의 기능을 수행했으나, 가족관계등록제도에서 제적부는 폐지된 호주제도의 공시방법인데도 불구하고 가족관계등록제도로의 전환이 완전하지 못하였던 탓에 신분관계의 공시기능을 일부 수행하고 있으므로, 등록부를 정정할 때에는 제적부도 일정부분 정정해야 한다. 다만, 호주제도의 폐지라는 제한 때문에 기존의 제적부 정정방법은 수정될 수밖에 없다. 가족관계등록제도에서 제적부를 정정할 때는 일체 부활하지 않고 정정한다. 호적제도가 폐지된 점에 비추어 볼 때 제적부를 부활하여 호적을 편제한 후 현재의 공부처럼 정정하는 방법은 부당할 뿐 아니라, 제적부를 기반으로 한 등록부를 폐쇄하는 것은 불필요하고 불편하기 때문이다. 제적부를 정정할 때에는 호적제도가 폐지되었기 때문에 다시 호적신고를 하여 일가를 창립하는 것과 같이 호적제도를 전제로 한 기존의 호적정정방법을 따를 수는 없고, 제적부의 신분사항의 기재를 말소하거나 정정하는 것으로 만족하여야 한다. In Korea the Hoju system(the traditional family system) was abolished and the Hojeok system(the traditional family registration system) was replaced by the Gajokgwangye-deongnok system(the new family registration system) in 2008. When the Hojeok system was converted into the Gajokgwangye-deongnok system, all the Hojeokbus were closed and became the Jejeokbus. The Deongnokbu functions as the family register and it is the register of the individual family member, while the Hojeokbu was the register of the whole family. The Jejeokbu(the closed family register) in the Hojeok system was called the previous Hojeokbu(the family register) and the Jejeokbu and the present Hojeokbu together showed family relations in the Hoju system. In principle, the Jejeokbu is only a part of the abolished system in the Gajokgwangye-deongnok system. However, the Jejeokbu still performs the function of noticing family relations in the Gajokgwangye-deongnok system because the Hojeok system wasm incompletely converted into the Gajokgwangye-deongnok system. So if the contents of the Deongnokbu are corrected, the contents of the related Jejeokbu must be corrected, too. But due to the abolition of the Hojeok system, the past methods of correcting the Jejeokbu should be changed. In the Gajokgwangye-deongnok system the Jejeokbu cannot be corrected by the method of reviving the Jejeokbu. Because the Hojeok system was abolished and Hojeokbu can not be the present register. And it is illogical to register the report of the abolished hojeok system in the revived Hojeokbu. The revival of the Jejeokbu is also inconvenient and inefficient for the following reasons. The Hojeokbu was organized by family unit but the Deongnokbu is made by individual unit. If the Jejeokbu is revived and the re-organized Hojeokbu is treated as the present register, the family member`s present Deongnokbu must be closed. After the correction of re-organized Hojeokbu, the Hojeokbu must be closed and become the Jejeokbu and the family member`s Deongnokbu must be made again corresponding to the corrected Hojeokbu.

전자간이 있던 산모에서 분만 5일후 발생한 뇌실질내 출혈 - 증례보고 -

이창우,김용석,박문선,하호균,이종선,정호,김주승,Lee, Chang-Woo,Kim, Yong-Seog,Park, Moon-Sun,Ha, Ho-Guyn,Lee, Jong-Sun,Jung, Ho,Kim, Joo-Seung 대한신경외과학회 2001 Journal of Korean neurosurgical society Vol.30 No.3

Intracranial hemorrhage due to preeclampsia in the postpartum woman is rarely documented. Generally, the incidence of stroke is increased during pregnancy and early postpartum. Preeclampsia is considered a main cause of both nonhemorrhagic and hemorrhagic stroke. We present a 32-year-old woman who had intracranial hemorrhage at 5 days postpartum. At admission, her consciousness was semicomatose with elevated blood pressure. Computerized tomography revealed intracranial hemorrhage on right frontal lobe. Additional angiography did not reveal abnormal vascular lesion. Emergency craniectomy with hematoma removal was done. However, the patient showed no recovery and died 2 weeks later. We conclude that postpartum care of preeclampsia is important to prevent intraparenchymal hemorrhage. Relative high risk of stroke during the postpartum period suggests a causal roles for the large decrease in blood volume or the rapid changes in hormonal status that follow a live birth or stillbirth, perhaps by means of hemodynamics, coagulative, or vessel wall changes.

화학기상응축 공정에서 TiO₂ 나노입자 특성에 미치는 반응온도와 전구체 농도의 영향 - Part I: SMPS를 이용한 실시간 입자특성 평가

이창우,유지훈,임성순,윤성희,이재성,좌용호,Lee, Chang-Woo,Yu, Ji-Hun,Im, Sung-Soon,Yun, Sung-Hee,Lee, Jai-Sung,Choa, Yong-Ho 한국재료학회 2003 한국재료학회지 Vol.13 No.5

Properties of nanoparticles synthesized during gas phase reaction were studied in terms of particle behaviors using real-time particle characterization method. For this study, $TiO_2$ nanoparticles were synthesized in the chemical vapor condensation process(CVC) and their in-situ measurement of particle formation and particle size distribution was performed by scanning mobility particle sizer(SMPS). As a result, particle behaviors in the CVC reactor were affected by both of number concentration and thermal coagulation, simultaneously. Particularly, growth and agglomeration between nanoparticles followed two different ways of dominances from coagulations by increase of number concentration and sintering effect by increased temperature.

백서 복근에 매식된 동결 건조 및 방사선 멸균처리된 동종골의 조직 반응에 관한 실험적 연구

이창우,임창준,이동근,김수남,Lee, Chang-Woo,Yim, Chang-Joon,Lee, Dong-Kuen,Kim, Soo-Nam 대한악안면성형재건외과학회 1991 Maxillofacial Plastic Reconstructive Surgery Vol.13 No.3

In this study, the healing changes of the implanted bone and its surrounding tissues were examined on the histopathologic basis following implantation of the freeze - dried and radiation - sterilized allogeneic bone in Rectus abdominicus of the rat. This study was performed to see the tissue recations after implantation of the freeze - dried and radiation - sterilized allogeneic bone and whether osteogenesis or osteo - induction or osteo - conduction is happened. And the results were as follows : 1. The shape of the implanted allogeneic bone of the 1, 2 - week group specimen was similar to that of normal bone in light - microscopic finding and the atrophy of cellular organells was found in trans - mission electron - microscopic finding. 2. The implanted allogeneic bone was surrounded with the dense fibroconnective tissues, and infiltration of the chronic inflammatory cells gradually became increased. 3. Hyaline degeneration was observed in the surrounding tissue at the 3, 4, 6 - week group specimen. 4. Light - microscopically the resorption of implanted bone became prominent after 4 - week group and the necrosis of allogeneic bone implant became severe with loss of cell components in lacuna. 5. Electron - microscopically, the osteoclast - like cells ere fond after, 2 - week group. It is summarized that the osteo - conduction potential of the bone is remained just after implanting the freeze - dried and radiation - sterilized allogeneic bone on Rectus abdominicus of the rat, but gradually it disappeared with the gradual increse of chronic inflammatory reaction and osteoclastic activity. So it is suggested that the antigenicity of the freeze - dried and radiation - sterilized bone is remained and it has little osteo - conductive activity when it is implanted in the muscle.

임상유전학 교육에서 새로운 교과과정 개발의 필요성

이창우,Lee, Chang-Woo 연세대학교 의과대학 2014 의학교육논단 Vol.16 No.1

It is becoming increasingly important for medical doctors to have a thorough understanding of human genetics and the ethical, legal, and social implications of genetic testing, counseling, and treatment. As genetic engineering and technology evolves, medical doctors will find themselves called in to counsel patients about a rapidly increasing number of diseases for which genetic testing and treatments are available. Medical doctors will need to master a new set of principles and clinical skills. A lack of knowledge about these issues and problems may lead to serious, lifelong or even fatal negative effects on patients. Medical genetics has moved from the study of rare conditions to the illumination of disorders that impact the entire spectrum of medical practice. This study demonstrates several areas in which medical genetics is clearly an important tool in medical practice and the necessity of establishing new curriculum for clinical genetic education in Korea. Medical students nearing graduation may lack genetic knowledge that is essential for daily practice because genetics has little or no place in clinical teaching. Medical schools should make extensive curriculum changes to increase students' awareness of clinical genetics and its ethical implications. The medical school curriculum will need creative new approaches to keeping up with the rapid pace of evolution of clinical genetics.

실험적으로 당뇨병을 유발시킨 개에 있어서 혈당량과 Hemoglobin A₁ 농도의 변화의 시간적인 상관관계

이창우,김본원,Lee, Chang-woo,Kim, Bonn-won 대한수의학회 1998 大韓獸醫學會誌 Vol.38 No.4

Fifteen mongrel dogs (14 male and 1 female) were injected intravenously with 30mg of streptozotocin and 50mg of alloxan monohydrate per kilogram of body weight to induce diabetes mellitus. Before treatment with streptozotocin and alloxan fasting serum glucose concentration was determined every other day or thrice a week (Monday, Wednesday, Friday) for 3 months. Among 15 dogs 4 dogs developed diabetes mellitus and survived more than 9 weeks without injection of insulin. After treatment fasting serum glucose and hemoglobin $A_1$ concentrations of the 4 dogs were determined every other day or thrice a week. Fasting serum glucose concentration increased acutely from 24 hours after treatment and then showed severe fluctuation. Hemoglobin $A_1$ concentration increased gradually until 7~9 weeks after treatment and then showed very slow increase afterwards. Correlation of hemoglobin $A_1$ to fasting glucose concentration was relatively weak(r = 0.10~0.80). Hemoglobin $A_1$ and fasting glucose concentration of preceding 7 week showed very high correlation (r = 0.98~0.99). It was indicated that hemoglobin $A_1$ concentration in chemically induced diabetic dogs reflects mean glucose concentration of preceding 7~9 weeks.

광섬유센서를 이용한 대공간 구조물의 상시 모니터링

이창우,이승재,주기수,Lee, Chang-Woo,Lee, Seung-Jae,Ju, Gi-Su 한국공간구조학회 2007 한국공간구조학회지 Vol.7 No.3

본 논문은 광섬유 브래그 격자 센서를 이용한 대공간 구조물의 실시간 모니터링을 설명하였고, 외부 외력 작용시에 대공간 구조물의 요소인 막이나 케이블의 변형을 계측하는데 광섬유 브래그 격자 센서가 매우 적합하다는 점을 검증하고 있다. 이와 함께 대공간 구조물에 광섬유 브래그 격자 센서를 이용하여 변형을 모니터링하는 실험을 실시하였다. 장스팬의 대공간 구조물을 모니터링하기 위하여 많은 요소를 계측할 수 있는 장비가 필요하다. 실험의 결과로 광섬유 브래그 격자 센서는 외력 작용시에 정확한 계측을 보여주었다. 그러므로 대공간 구조물의 변형율을 계산할 수 있고 실시간 모니터링이 가능하다. In this paper, always monitoring system of fiber Bragg Crating(FBG)Sensor is described and FBGs are well suited for measuring the movement in the part of the spatial structure(for example, cable, membrane and so on)under the pressure conditions. In order to measure the movement of long span structure, we need the measurable equipment that takes in many spots to measure. In the result of experiment, the fiber sensors showed good response to the pressure conditions. Therefore, We could calculate the movement of spatial structure and be possible health monitoring of the spatial structure.

자성광촉매용 TiO₂-Fe₂O₃ 나노복합분말의 합성

이창우,김순길,윤성희,이재성,좌용호,Lee Chang-Woo,Kim Soon-Gil,Yun Sung-Hee,Lee Jai-Sung,Choa Yong-Ho 한국재료학회 2005 한국재료학회지 Vol.15 No.8

[ $TiO_2-Fe_2O_3$ ] nanocomposite powders for magnetic photocatalyst were synthesized by sol-gel process, in which $TiO_2$ photocatalytic layer was formed on the surface of $\gamma-Fe_2O_3$ magnetic core. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observation and X-ray diffractometry (XRD) analysis revealed that$\gamma-Fe_2O_3$ nanoparticles, $10\~20nm$ in diameter, were coated by $TiO_2$ shell of 5nm in thickness and $TiO_2$ was anatase phase. Also hydroxyl group (-OH) used to decompose organic compounds was detected by Fourier transformation infrared spectrometry(FT-IR) analysis. UV-Visible spectrophotometry results showed that light absorption occurred in the wavelength range of $400\~700 nm$, and the band gap energy $(E_g)$ of powder was 1.8 eV. Finally it was found that the coercivity $(H({ci})$ and saturation magnetization $(M_s)$ of the powder were 79 Oe and 14.8 emu/g, respectively as experimental vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) measurements.

급속열처리와 엑시머 레이저에 의해 형성된 다결정 실리콘 박막에서 열처리 방법에 따른 박막의 특성변화

이창우,고민경,우상록,고석중,이정용,최광렬,최영석,Lee, Chang-U,Go, Min-Gyeong,U, Sang-Rok,Go, Seok-Jung,Lee, Jeong-Yong,Choe, Gwang-Ryeol,Choe, Yeong-Seok 한국재료학회 1997 한국재료학회지 Vol.7 No.10

플라즈마 화학 증착 방법에 의해 corning 7059 유리기판위에 비정질 실리콘 박막을 만들고 고온열처리, 다단계급속열처리, 일차원 선형빔(line shape beam)의 가우스 분포를 가지는 엑시머 레이저 열처리를 이용하여 고상 및 액상의 재결정화를 통해 다결정 실리콘 박막을 제작하였다. 편광된 라만 분광학(Raman spectroscopy)을 통하여 여러 가지 열처리 방법과 기판온도에 따른 다결정 실리콘 박막의 잔류응력을 조사하였다. 레이저 열처리에 의하여 결정화된 실리콘 기판의 경우, 높은 결정화된 체적량과 잔류응력을 갖으며 equaxial결정성을 갖는다. 그러나 이러한 고상 재결정화된 다결정 실리콘 박막은 라만스펙트럼에서 480$cm^{-1}$ /주위에 넓게 퍼져있어 비정질상(amorphous phase)이 함께 존재함을 알 수 있다. 고온열처리와 다단계급속열처리의 경우 잔류응력의 크기는 각각 4.07x$10^{9.}$과 4.56x$10^{9 dyne}$ $\textrm{cm}^2$이다. 또한 엑시머레이저 열처리의 경우 기판온도가 상온에서 40$0^{\circ}C$로 증가할수록 열적인 완화에 의해 잔류응력이 1.35x$10^{10}$에서 8.58x$10^{9}$dyne/$\textrm{cm}^2$으로 감소하는 것을 알 수 있다.다.