다수준 분석

이무송,Lee, Moo-Song 대한예방의학회 2004 예방의학회지 Vol.37 No.3

한국인 암사망률의 추정에 관한 연구 - 경상남도지역을 중심으로 -

이무송,박태수,안윤옥,Lee, Moo-Song,Park, Tae-Soo,Ahn, Yoon-Ok 대한예방의학회 1992 예방의학회지 Vol.25 No.2

우리나라 일부지역의 암사망률을 추정하기 위하여 경상남도지역을 대상으로 조사연구를 시행하였다. 조사대상연구는 공무원및교직원의료보험공단 경상남도지부 피보험자 및 피부양자들이며, 이들중 1989년 1월부터 1990년 12월까지의 사망자 3,867명에 대하여 사망원인을 조사하였다. 사망원인의 확정은 사망진단서 및 의료보험공단의 전산화된 의료기관 이용자료를 기본자료로 3단계에 걸쳐 시행하였다. 사망진단서를 이용한 1차조사, 의료기관 이용자료를 이용한 2차조사, 가족설문조사인 3차조사를 시행한 결과 암질환으로 인한 사망자는 990명이었다. 사망원인이 암질환인 사망자 990례를 분석하여 우리나라 경상남도지역의 암사망률 및 부위별 암사망률을 추정하였다. 우리나라 경상남도지역 암질환의 조사망률은 10만 인 년당 남자 138.7, 여자 65.7으로 추정되었다. 또한 부위별 암사망률의 순위는 남자의 경우 위암, 간암, 폐암, 식도암, 조혈기계 암의 순이었으며, 여자는 위암, 폐암, 간암, 유방암, 자궁경부암의 순으로 나타났다. To estimate the cancer mortality rates among Koreans, a mortality survey was carried out in the province of $Ky{\breve{o}}ngsangnam-do$. The study population are the beneficiaries of Korea Medical Insurance Corporation(KMIC), $Ky{\breve{o}}ngsangnam-do$ area, among which the 3,867 deaths occurred from January, 1989 to December, 1990, were reviewed to confirm the cancer deaths. These were based upon the death certificates and medical utilization records before dying which were available through the computerized databases on medical care utility of KMIC. The survey was conducted along three steps. At first, the death certificates were examined, as a second step medical utilization records were reviewed, and finally direct contacts to the family members of the deceased were done. As a result, 990 deaths were found due to cancer. Using them, age and sex specific cancer(all sites and several sites) mortality rates were estimated. Overall cancer mortality rate in the area was estimated 138.7 per 100,000 person-years in males, and 65.7 in females, respectively. And the orders of site-specific cancer mortality rates were the cancers of stomach, liver, lung, esophagus, and cancers of the hematopoietic system among males, In females, followed by gastric cancer, cancers of lung and liver are the 2nd and 3rd in rank, respectively and cancers of breast and uterine cervix are the 4th and the 5th in rank.

실거래가지수 연동금리 모기지 도입효과 분석

이무송 ( Moo Song Lee ),유정석 ( Jung Suk Yu ) 한국부동산분석학회 2012 不動産學硏究 Vol.18 No.2

This study analyzes the ILM (Market price Index-Linked Mortgage) which links the market price index which reflects the housing market price with the mortgage loan rate. ILM is one of the mortgage risk management measures to which the domestic housing financial market is structurally exposed under the economic mechanism of the negative equilibrium relationship between the mortgage and the house price. Regarding the ILM adjusted mortgage rate estimation, unlike the preceding studies, the volatility mitigation effect was measured applying the first time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship starts, not the time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship is at a maximum. Also, there is three months time lag between the housing transactions and the market price index publication in Busan, Gwangju and Daejeon where the ILM was most effective. The analysis through the index prediction considering the estimated error still showed the volatility mitigation effect. According to this study, it was found that the volatility of mortgage loan rate was mitigated without the risk of index prediction and estimated error for the first time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship starts was applied, not the time lag when the negative equilibrium relationship was at a maximum. However, with three months time lag between the housing transactions and the market price index publication, the management complementary measures like the measures to shorten the reporting period to 15~30 days can help reduce risks arising from the index prediction, In addition, since the risk-return trade-off relationship represents the level of borrowers utility, it is questionable that the utility increase of borrowers is an essential precondition for ILM introduction. However, ILM can be applied to the low income area to increase the utility of borrowers and it has more meaning as political adoption in terms of equilibrium and residential welfare.

구조변화 전후의 수도권 주택 공간 및 자산시장의 단기동적균형 메커니즘 연구

이무송(Moo Song Lee),유정석(Jung Suk Yu) 한국주택학회 2015 주택연구 Vol.23 No.1

본 연구는 공적분 관계의 구조변화를 고려하여 주택매매가격 및 전세가격 외에 주택자산가격 결정모형에서 두 변수 간의 관계를 결정하는 핵심 거시경제변수인 금리를 VEC 모형의 내생변수에 포함하였고, 금융시장인 주식시장까지 확장하여 수도권 주택시장의 장기균형관계 및 단기 동태적 균형메커니즘을 분석하였다. 첫째, VEC 모형 추정결과 금융시장을 대표하는 코스피 지수와 금리는 내생변수로서 주택매매가격과 전세가격과의 공통적인 추세가 있다기보다 매매가격과 전세가격에 외생성이 있는 것으로 판단되었다. 둘째, 외생적 충격으로 인한 장기균형관계 이탈시 회복되는 단기조정속도는 구조변화 전후 모두 코스피 지수가 가장 빠르게 조정되고 다음으로 주택매매가격과 전세가격 순으로 나타났다. 셋째, 구조변화 이후에는 주택매매가격이 주가지수 변동성에 영향을 받는 정도가 구조변화 이전보다 훨씬 덜 민감해 주택자산이 상대적으로 더욱더 안정적인 성격의 자산으로 바뀌고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 넷째, 충격반응분석 결과 역시 주택매매가격과 전세가격은 구조변화 이전에는 상호 동조화 현상을 보이고 있으나, 구조변화 이후에는 탈동조화 현상을 보이고 있었다. 다섯째, 예측오차의 분산분해 결과도 마찬가지로 구조변화 이전에는 매매가격 및 전세가격의 잔차에 의해 상호 설명력이 유지되고 있지만, 구조변화 이후에는 전세가격이 주택매매가격에 대한 설명력이 없는 것으로 나타나 탈동조화 현상을 보이고 있었다. 분석결과를 종합해볼 때, 우리나라의 주택은 주식에 비해서는 안전한 자산이지만 금융시장에 밀접한 투자자산의 성격을 보이고 있으며, 구조변화 전후 모두 주택매매가격이 장기균형관계 일탈시 시장을 주도하며 회복을 이끌고 있음을 알 수 있다. 하지만 구조변화 이후 주택매매가격은 안정된 현상을 보이는데 반해 전세가격은 계속해서 상승추세를 나타내고 있어, 이는 구조변화로 인한 새로운 균형관계가 형성되고 있는 것으로 보인다. 또한 구조변화 이후에는 금리가 주택매매가격이나 전세가격에 영향을 미치지 못하고 있어, 정부정책 또한 과거 부양정책 의존에서 벗어나 공간시장 안정에 역점을 두어야 할 것으로 보인다. This paper includes the interest which is the key macroeconomic variable in the housing capital asset pricing model as well as the housing price and jeonse price into endogenous variables in VEC Model considering the structural break of cointegration relation. And this investigates the long-run equilibrium and the short-run dynamics equilibrium mechanism in the metropolitan housing market expanding the endogenous variables range to the stock market. Empirical results find that the housing in Korea is more safe asset than the stock is, but it is much similar to the investment asset closely related to the financial market in character. Also, the housing price leads the market and tries to return to balance in the deviations from the long-run equilibrium before and after the structural break. However, while the housing price stays stable after the structural break, the jeonse price is still in the upward trend. This shows that the structural break is building a new equilibrium. Meanwhile, since the interest after the structural break has no influence on the housing price and jeonse price, the government's policy needs to break away from the old pump-priming policies and lay emphasis on the stabilization in the space market.

연립방정식 모형을 이용한 서울 오피스시장의 균형메커니즘 연구

이무송 ( Moo Song Lee ),유정석 ( Jung Suk Yu ) 한국부동산분석학회 2014 不動産學硏究 Vol.20 No.1

This paper develops a simultaneous equations system by 3SLS(Three Stage Least Square) estimation to investigate the equilibrium mechanism between demand-driven rent and office supply functions and between rent in the space market and cap rate functions in the real estate capital market. The preceding studies have primarily focused on the interrelationship between demand and supply function sides only. We find that DiPasquale-Wheaton 4-quadrant model is comparatively well applied to the Seoul office market in case of rent and cap rate functions except the office supply function. Furthermore, the rent and cap rate in Seoul office market can be estimated according to the scenarios based on the estimated parameters. As a result of simulations, office rent is relatively less influenced than cap rate by the key economic variables and the Seoul office market is closer to the capital gains-oriented asset market than rental income-oriented space market, given the relationship between the office rent and cap rate.

우리 나라 국민의 보완요법 이용률, 이용양상과 비용지출

강영호,이무송,구희조,강위창,홍창기,이상일,Khang, Young-Ho,Lee, Moo-Song,Koo, Hee-Jo,Kang, Wee-Chang,Hong, Chang-Gi,Lee, Sang-Il 대한예방의학회 1999 예방의학회지 Vol.32 No.4

Objectives : To determine the prevalence, pattern. and out-of-pocket expenditure of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) utilization in Korean adult population. Methods : We conducted a representative telephone survey of 2,042 persons aged 18 or older. Data about any health problem, details of their use of medical doctors(MDs) offices/hospitals/pharmacies services and CAM during the preceding 12 months were collected with structured questionnaire. Results : The utilization rate of CAM among Korean adults was 29% in one year. A total of 231 kinds of CAM was identified from this survey. Annual out-of-pocket expenditure associated with CAM use in 1998 amounted to ${\xi}{\S}1.88$ billion and was comparable to 40.8% of out-of-pocket expenditure paid for MDs offices/hospitals/pharmacies services. Among those(N=424) who paid for both MDs offices/hospitals/pharmacies services an d CAM, 35.8% paid more for CAM. CAM gave more satisfaction than western medicine to those who had experience of both types of therapy. About half of CAM users were willing to recommend CAM to others. Disclosure rate to physician among CAM users was not high(40.6%). Conclusion : CAM became a popular source of health care in Korea, Korean spent a substantial amount of out-of-pocket money on CAM without any public control. Because CAM use is likely to be increased rapidly through lay referral system, health policy makers and health professionals should pay more attention to CAM for making appropriate utilization of CAM.

한국 여성에서의 자궁경부암 발생률

박병주,이무송,안윤옥,최영민,주영수,유근영,김헌,유하성,박태수,Park, Byung-Joo,Lee, Moo-Song,Ahn, Yoon-Ok,Choi, Young-Min,Ju, Yeong-Su,Yoo, Keun-Young,Kim, Hun,Yew, Ha-Seung,Park, Tae-Soo 대한예방의학회 1996 Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health Vol.29 No.4

To estimate the incidence of uterine cervix cancer among Korean women, we have conducted a study using the claim data on the beneficiaries of Korea Medical Insurance Corporation (KMIC). All medical records of the potential cases with diagnosis of ICD-9 180, 181, 182, 199, 219, 233 in the claims sent by medical care institutions in the whole country to the KMIC from January 1988 to December 1989, were abstracted and Gynecology specialist reviewed the records to identify the new cases of uterine cervix cancer among the potential cases during the corresponding period. Using these data, the incidence of uterine cervix cancer among Korean women was estimated as of July 1, 1988 to June 30, 1989. The crude rate was estimated to be 17.34(95% CI: $16.76\sim17.92$) per 100,000 and the cumulative rates for the ages $0\sim64\;and\;0\sim74$ were 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively. The age-adjusted rate for the world population was 19.93 per 100,000 which was higher than those of other Asian countries including China and Japan in $1983\sim1987$. The truncated rate for ages $35\sim64$ was 52.05 per 100,000 which was one of the highest in the world. With increasing age, the incidence rate increased to 78.11 per 100,000 in women aged $55\sim59$ years, then it decreased in the older groups. This finding suggests that detecting rate of uterine cervix cancer may decrease in women aged 60 years or older due to inadequate medical care seeking behavior. In the geographical area, the SIR of Jeju province was significantly low but it might be due to statistical unstability by small case numbers.

센서스인구 대 주민등록인구: 지역별 사망률 연구에서 어느 인구를 분모로 사용하여야 하나?

황인아,윤성철,이무송,이상일,조민우,이민정,강영호,Hwang, In-A,Yun, Sung-Cheol,Lee, Moo-Song,Lee, Sang-Il,Jo, Min-Woo,Lee, Min-Jung,Khang, Young-Ho 대한예방의학회 2005 예방의학회지 Vol.38 No.2

Objectives: Studies on the geographical differences in mortality tend to use a census population, rather than a registration population, as the denominator of mortality rates in South Korea. However, an administratively determined registration population would be the logical denominator, as the geographical areas for death certificates (numerator) have been determined by the administratively registered residence of the deceased, rather than the actual residence at the time of death. The purpose of this study was to examine the differences in the total number of a district population, and the associated district-specific mortality indicators, when two different measures as a population denominator (census and registration) were used. Methods: Population denominators were obtained from census and registration population data, and the numbers of deaths (numerators) were calculated from raw death certificate data. Sex- and 5-year age-specific numbers for the populations and deaths were used to compute sex- and age-standardized mortality rates (by direct standardization methods) and standardized mortality ratios (by indirect standardization methods). Bland-Altman tests were used to compare district populations and district-specific mortality indicators according to the two different population denominators. Results : In 1995, 9 of 232 (3.9%) districts were not included in the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the population differences. A total of 8 (3.4%) among 234 districts had large differences between their census and registration populations in 2000, which exceeded the 95% CI of the population differences. Most districts (13 of 17) exceeding the 95% CI were rural. The results of the sex- and age-standardized mortality rates showed 15 (6.5%) and 16 (6.8%) districts in 1995 and 2000, respectively, were not included in the 95% CI of the differences in their rates. In addition, the differences in the standardized mortality ratios using the two different population denominators were significantly greater among 14 districts in 1995 and 11 districts in 2002 than the 95% CI. Geographical variations in the mortality indicators, using a registration population, were greater than when using a census population. Conclusion: The use of census population denominators may provide biased geographical mortality indicators. The geographical mortality rates when using registration population denominators are logical, but do not necessarily represent the exact mortality rate of a certain district. The removal of districts with large differences between their census and registration populations or associated mortality indicators should be considered to monitor geographical mortality rates in South Korea.

건강한 한국 성인남성의 자가약물복용력에 따른 간기능 장애 발생여부 조사

배종면,박병주,이무송,김동현,신명희,안윤옥,Bae, Jong-Myon,Park, Byung-Joo,Lee, Moo-Song,Kim, Dong-Hyun,Shin, Myung-Hee,Ahn, Yoon-Ok 대한예방의학회 1996 예방의학회지 Vol.29 No.4

연구배경 : 약물복용에 관한 엄격한 규제가 없는 국내 의료현실상, 각종 건강에 관련된 약물이 범람하고 있어 약물 오 남용에 따른 심각한 약물부작용의 발생 가능성이 클 것으로 추정된다. 이에 건강한 성인 남성에서 영양제, 한약을 포함한 자가약물복용에 따라 간 기능 장애를 유발하는지를 코호트 내 환자-대조군 연구로 알아보았다. 방법 : ' 서울코호트' 대상자 중 (1)1990년도 정기 건강검진의 혈청결과상 HBsAg이 음성이면서 AST, ALT 모두 40 IU/L 이하인 대상자 (2) 1990년도 입원진료청구 전산자료상 간질환을 포함한 각종 질병으로 수진받은 적이 없는 자 (3)설문서 응답내용상 1991년 한해 동안 각종 질병이 발생되어 해당 약물을 복용한 적이 없는 자 (4)1992년도 정기 건강검진상 종합소견이 정상이면서 혈청검사상 HBsAg 음성인 자로 국한하여 본 연구를 위한 새로운 코호트를 구축하였다. 2년간의 추적조사 결과 1992년도 검사치상 AST/ALT 모두 40 IU/L 이상이면서 1990년도 AST/ALT에 비하여 100%이상 상승한 경우를 '간효소치 상승군(case group)'으로 정하였고, 반대로 1992년도 검사치상 AST/ALT 모두 40 IU/L 미만이면서 1990년도 ALT/ALT 에 비하여 상승 정도가 100% 미만인 경우를 '대조군(control group)'으로 하여, 약물복용과의 관련성을 카이자승법과 로지스틱 회귀법으로 알아보았다. 결과 : '간기능치 상승군(n=30)'은 대조군(n=2,625)' 에 비하여 44세 이하가 많았고, 경제수준이 높았으며 보다 비만하였으나 교육수준, 직업, 가족력, 수술력, 방사선 촬영력, 침구이용력, 흡연 및 음주습관에서 차이가 없었다. 약물복용에 있어서는 간장제와 한약복용은 차이가 없었으나, 스쿠알렌, 알로에 등의 건강보조식품 복용력은 '간기능치 상승군'에서 유의하게 많았다. 단변수 분석에서 유의성을 보인 변수들을 보정하여 보았을 때도 건강보조식품 복용력은 여전히 통계적 유의성을 잃지 않았다. 결론 : 본 연구결과는 건강인이라 하더라도 '건강보조식품'의 임의 복용은 간기능 장애를 유발할 가능성이 있다고 보아진다. 따라서 현재 '건강보조식품'의 사용이 급증하는 추세 속에서 치료제가 아닌 보조식품으로써의 '건강보조식품'이라 하더라도 장기간 임의 복용에 따라 어떤 부작용이 얼마나 발생할 것인지에 대한 연구가 향후 이루어져야 할 것으로 판단된다. Background: Korean people could abuse healthy foods as well as medications, which might cause serious side effects. The aim of this study was elucidating liver dysfunction due to the self-medications of hepatotonics, healthy foods and herb medications by nested case-control study. Methods: Study subjects were drawn from male members of Seoul Cohort Study who were recruited by self-administered structured questionnaire survey through mailing to the healthy men between the age of 40 and 59 years through the program of biennial health check-up offered by Korea Medical Insurance Corporation(KMIC). The liver dysfunction was defined as the level of serum AST and ALT above 40 IU/L and increased in more than one hunderd per-cent during the 2 year follow-up period. To estimate the odds ratio between self-medication and liver dysfunction after controlling for potential confounders, logistic regression was performed. Results: During the follow-up period, 30 members were identified to fit into case criteria and 2,625 members were selected as control. In logistic regression analyses, history of healthy foods intake, age under 45 years, obesity, and habit of regular exercise were significantly associated with liver dysfunction. The following factors exhibited no statistical significance: intake of hepatotonics, of herb medicine; history of disease in family, of operation, and of radiologic examination; smoking habits and drinking amounts. Conclusion: The significant association between the intake of healthy foods and the liver dysfunction illustrates that chronically optional overuse of healthy foods might bring to hazards to health. As the increasing trend of the size of purchasing healthy foods in Korea, pharmacoepidemiologic studies evaluating the safety and efficacy of the widely used healthy foods should be performed in the near future.

사회경제적 위치에 따른 청소년의 건강과 건강 관련 행태의 차이 : 한국청소년패널 조사 결과

조성일,양승미,이무송,강영호,Cho, Sung-Il,Yang, Seung-Mi,Lee, Moo-Song,Khang, Young-Ho 대한예방의학회 2005 예방의학회지 Vol.38 No.4

Objective : This study examined the socioeconomic differentials for the health and health related behaviors among South Korean middle school students. Methods : A nationwide cross-sectional interview survey of 3,449 middle school second-grade students and their parents was conducted using a stratified multi-stage cluster sampling method. The response rate was 93.3%. The socioeconomic position indicators were based on self-reported information from the students and their parents: parental education, father's occupational class, monthly family income, out-of-pocket expenditure for education, housing ownership, educational expectations, educational performance and the perceived economic hardships. The outcome variables that were measured were also based on the self-reported information from the students. The health measures included self-rated health conditions, psychological or mental problems, the feelings of loneliness at school, the overall satisfaction of life and the perceived level of stress. The health related behaviors included were smoking, alcohol drinking, sexual intercourse, violence, bullying and verbal and physical abuse by parents. Results : Socioeconomic differences for the health and health related behaviors were found among the eighth grade boys and girls of South Korea. However, the pattern varied with gender, the socioeconomic position indicators and the outcome measures. The prevalence rates of the overall dissatisfaction with life for both genders differed according to most of the eight socioeconomic position indicators. All the health measures were significantly different according to the perceived economic hardship. However, the socioeconomic differences in the self-rated health conditions and the psychosocial or mental problems were not clear. The students having higher socioeconomic position tended to be a perpetrator of bullying while those students with lower socioeconomic position were more likely to be a victim. Conclusions : The perceived economic hardships predicted the health status among the eighth graders of South Korea. The overall satisfaction of life was associated with the socioeconomic position indicators. Further research efforts are needed to explore the mechanisms on how and why the socioeconomic position affects the health and health related behaviors in this age group.