농가맞춤형 기상서비스 시범사업

윤진일 ( Jin I Yun ),김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),김진희 ( Jin Hee Kim ),김대준 ( Dae Jun Kim ) 한국농림기상학회 2013 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.15 No.4

재단법인 국가농림기상센터는 지난 3년간 기상청의 재정지원으로 기후스마트농업의 전제조건인 개별농장수준의 기상위험 관리서비스를 설계하였다. 이 서비스는 기존 기상청 관측 및 예보시스템 외에 추가적인 자원소모 없이 해당 농지에 주어진 기상조건을 재배중인 작물의 종류와 그 발육단계에 맞게 ‘기상위험지수’로 정량화하고, 이를 평년기준과 비교하여 재해발생가능성을 농민에게 일대일로 전달한다. 서비스 실용화에 필요한 기상실황 및 예보의 경관규모 추정기술, 시범 집수역 내 필지별 경과기상 및 예보에 근거한 작목 맞춤형 기상위험 산정기술을 개발하고, 이들 기술의 통합 및 시스템화를 완료하였다. 단일 집수역인 경남 하동군 악양면을 선정하여 이 시스템을 설치하고 230농가 400필지를 대상으로 시범서비스를 구현하였다. 이 과정에서 얻어진 경험을 공유함으로써 향후 농업부문의 기상이변 대응 조기경보서비스 구축에 기여하고자 한다. The National Center for AgroMeteorology (NCAM) has designed a risk management solution for individual farms threatened by the climate change and variability. The new service produces weather risk indices tailored to the crop species and phenology by using site-specific weather forecasts and analysis derived from digital products of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). If the risk is high enough to cause any damage to the crops, agrometeorological warnings or watches are delivered to the growers` cellular phones with relevant countermeasures to help protect their crops against the potential damage. Core techniques such as scaling down of weather data to individual farm level and the crop specific risk assessment for operational service were developed and integrated into a cloud based service system. The system was employed and implemented in a rural catchment of 50 km2 with diverse agricultural activities and 230 volunteer farmers are participating in this project to get the user-specific weather information from and to feed their evaluations back to NCAM. The experience obtained through this project will be useful in planning and developing the nation-wide early warning service in agricultural sector exposed to the climate and weather extremes under climate change and climate variability.

지형이 복잡한 집수역의 소규모농장에 맞춘 기상서비스의 실현가능성

윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2015 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.17 No.4

우리나라 농촌은 지형이 복잡하고 소규모 농장이 많아 농업기상서비스 개선을 위해서는 먼저 기상청 종관예보의 규모축소가 필요하다. 지형기후학에 근거한 공간정보기술을 이용하여 기상청의 기온예보자료 가운데 0600과 1500 LST자료를 선정된 집수역에 대해 30 m급의 국지규모로 상세화하고, 14개 관측소의 실측기온자료를 2013년부터 2014년까지 수집하여 비교하였다. 그 결과 0600 LST기온의 경우 집수역 가운데 고도가 낮은 곳에서, 1500 LST 기온의 경우 계곡의 서향 및 남향 사면에서 정확도가 크게 개선되는 것을 확인하였다. 상세화 한 기온실황자료를 이용하여 지역 내 소규모 농장을 대상으로 하는 시범서비스를 시작하였으며 농장 맞춤 기상정보를 제공하고 있다. 예컨대 이 서비스시스템은 기온자료를 토대로 작물의 발육단계를 추정하고, 발육단계별 최저기온에 따른 서리해 발생 관계식에 의해 내일 아침 예보기온의 서리위험 여부를 판정한다. 만약 서리위험도가 미리 설정된 기준을 넘으면 농장주의 휴대폰으로 대응지침과 함께 서리해 경보를 발송하여 피해를 예방할 수 있도록 도와준다. An adequate downscaling of synoptic forecasts is a prerequisite for improved agrometeorological service to rural areas in South Korea where complex terrains and small farms are common. In this study, geospatial schemes based on topoclimatology were used to scale down the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) temperature forecasts to the local scale (~30 m) across a rural catchment. Then, using these schemes, local temperatures were estimated at 14 validation sites at 0600 and 1500 LST in 2013/2014 and were compared with the observations. The estimation errors were substantially reduced for both 0600 and 1500 LST temperatures when compared against the uncorrected KMA products. The improvement was most notable at low lying locations for the 0600 temperature and at the locations on west- and south-facing slopes for the 1500 LST temperature. Using the downscaled real-time temperature data, a pilot service has started to provide the field-specific weather information tailored to meet the requirements of small-scale farms. For example, the service system makes a daily outlook on the phenology of crop species grown in a given field using the field-specific temperature data. When the temperature forecast is given for next morning, a frost risk index is calculated according to a known relationship of phenology and frost injury. If the calculated index is higher than a pre-defined threshold, a warning is issued and delivered to the grower``s cellular phone with relevant countermeasures to help protect crops against frost damage.

디지털 농업기후도 해설

윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2010 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.12 No.1

A comprehensive mapping project for agroclimatic zoning in South Korea will end by April 2010, which has required 4 years, a billion won (ca. 0.9 million US dollars) and 22 experts from 7 institutions to complete it. The map database from this project may be categorized into primary, secondary and analytical products. The primary products are called "high definition" digital climate maps (HD-DCMs) and available through the state of the art techniques in geospatial climatology. For example, daily minimum temperature surfaces were prepared by combining the climatic normals (1971-2000 and 1981-2008) of synoptic observations with the simulated thermodynamic nature of cold air by using the raster GIS and microwave temperature profiling which can quantify effects of cold air drainage on local temperature. The spatial resolution of the gridded climate data is 30m for temperature and solar irradiance, and 270m for precipitation. The secondary products are climatic indices produced by statistical analysis of the primary products and includes extremes, sums, and probabilities of climatic events relevant to farming activities at a given grid cell. The analytical products were prepared by driving agronomic models with the HD-DCMs and dates of full bloom, the risk of freezing damage, and the fruit quality are among the examples. Because the spatial resolution of local climate information for agronomic practices exceeds the current weather service scale, HDDCMs and the value-added products are expected to supplement the insufficient spatial resolution of official climatology. In this lecture, state of the art techniques embedded in the products, how to combine the techniques with the existing geospatial information, and agroclimatic zoning for major crops and fruits in South Korea will be provided.

단보 : 지형보정계수를 이용한 복잡지형의 일 적산일사량 분포 추정

윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2009 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.11 No.1

단보 : 적외선 영상 복사계를 이용한 산간집수역의 찬공기 배수와 온난대 형성 관측

윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2011 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.13 No.2

Cold-air drainage and pooling occur in most mountain valleys at night. Local climates with cold-air pooling could affect phenology and distribution of crop plants. A high resolution infrared imaging radiometer was used to visualize the cold-air drainage and thermal belt formation over a small mountainous watershed (ca. 10×5×1 km for the maximum length×width×depth). Thermal images on 640×480 pixels were scanned across the Akyang valley (south of Mt. Jiri National Park) by the radiometer installed at a local peak (``Hyongjebong``, 1,117 m a.s.l.) at dawn of 17 May 2011, when the synoptic condition was favorable for the surface cooling and cold-air drainage. Major findings are: (1) Cold-air drainage and accumulation was clearly identified by the lowest brightness temperature mainly at the valley bottom. (2) So-called ``thermal belt`` with higher brightness temperature was found partway up the valley sidewalls and showed up to 5oC departure from the valley bottom temperature. (3) Digital thermography showed feasibility for validation of the high definition geospatial temperature models currently in use for the plot-specific agrometeorological service.

일별 국지기온 결정에 미치는 관측지점 표고영향의 계절변동

윤진일(Jin I Yun),최재연(Jae Yeon Choi),안재훈(Jae Hoon Ahn) 한국농림기상학회 2001 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.3 No.2

Usage of ecosystem models has been extended to landscape scales for understanding the effects of environmental factors on natural and agro-ecosystems and for serving as their management decision tools. Accurate prediction of spatial variation in daily temperature is required for most ecosystem models to be applied to landscape scales. There are relatively few empirical evaluations of landscape-scale temperature prediction techniques in mountainous terrain such as Korean Peninsula. We derived a periodic function of seasonal lapse rate fluctuation from analysis of elevation effects on daily temperatures. Observed daily maximum and minimum temperature data at 63 standard stations in 1999 were regressed to the latitude, longitude, distance from the nearest coastline and altitude of the stations, and the optimum models with r^2 of 0.65 and above were selected. Partial regression coefficients for the altitude variable were plotted against day of year, and a numerical formula was determined for simulating the seasonal trend of daily lapse rate, i.e., partial regression coefficients. The formula in conjunction with an inverse distance weighted interpolation scheme was applied to predict daily temperatures at 267 sites, where observation data are available, on randomly selected dates for winter, spring and summer in 2000. The estimation errors were smaller and more consistent than the inverse distance weighting plus mean annual lapse rate scheme. We conclude that this method is simple and accurate enough to be used as an operational temperature interpolation scheme at landscape scale in Korea and should be applicable to elsewhere.

강좌 : 농업기상 조기경보체계: 기후변화-기상이변 대응서비스의 출발점

윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2014 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.16 No.4

Increased frequency of climate extremes is another face of climate change confronted by humans, resulting in catastrophic losses in agriculture. While climate extremes take place on many scales, impacts are experienced locally and mitigation tools are a function of local conditions. To address this, agrometeorological early warning systems must be place and location based, incorporating the climate, crop and land attributes at the appropriate scale. Existing services often lack site-specific information on adverse weather and countermeasures relevant to farming activities. Warnings on chronic long term effects of adverse weather or combined effects of two or more weather elements are seldom provided, either. This lecture discusses a field-specific early warning system implemented on a catchment scale agrometeorological service, by which volunteer farmers are provided with face-toface disaster warnings along with relevant countermeasures. The products are based on core techniques such as scaling down of weather information to a field level and the crop specific risk assessment. Likelihood of a disaster is evaluated by the relative position of current risk on the standardized normal distribution from climatological normal year prepared for 840 catchments in South Korea. A validation study has begun with a 4-year plan for implementing an operational service in Seomjin River Basin, which accommodates over 60,000 farms and orchards. Diverse experiences obtained through this study will certainly be useful in planning and developing the nation-wide disaster early warning system for agricultural sector.

공간정보기술의 생태기후학적 활용

윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2003 학술발표논문집 Vol.2003 No.1

공간기후모형을 이용한 농업기상정보 생산

윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2004 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.6 No.4

한국농업의 구조조정과 전자기후도의 역할

윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2007 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.9 No.1