경주지역 외국인 관광수요 예측

손은호(Eun Ho Son),박덕병(Duk Byeong Park) 한국농촌지도학회 2013 농촌지도와 개발 Vol.20 No.2

The study used a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the number of tourists to Kyeongju foreign in a uni-variable time series. Time series monthly data for the investigation were collected ranging from 1995 to 2010. A total of 192 observations were used for data analysis. The date showed that a big difference existed between on-season and off-season of the number of foreign tourists in Kyeongju. In the forecast multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(4,1,0)12 model was found the most appropriate model. Results show that the number of tourists was 694 thousands in 2011, 715 thousands in 2012, 725 thousands in 2013, 738 thousands in 2014, and 884 thousands in 2015. It was suggested that the grasping of the Kyeongju forecast model was very important in respect of how experts in tourism development, policy makers or planners would establish marketing strategies to allocate services in Kyeongju as a tourist destination and provide tourism facilities efficiently. 이 연구는 단변량 시계열 중에서 계절 아리마 모형을 이용하여 경주지역 외국인 관광객을 예측하고자 한다. 이 연구를 위한 시계열 월별 자료는 1995년부터 2010년까지 수집하였다. 총 192개의 관측치를 분석에 사용하였는데, 성수기와 비수기의 관광객 차이가 아주 큰 것을 보여주고 있다. 예측분석결과, 경주지역의 외국인 관광객에 대한 최종 예측모형은 승법계절 ARIMA(1,1,0)(4,0,0)12 모형으로 선정되었다. 이 모형에 적용하여 미래의 경주지역의 외국인 관광객은 2011년 694천명, 2012년 715천명, 2013년 725천명, 2014년 738천명, 2015년 751 천명이 방문하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 향후 경주지역 외국인 관광객에게 효율적으로 관광시설을 공급함과 동시에 서비스를 제공하기 위한 관광정책을 수립하는 측면에서 관광관련 이해당사자들에게 매우 중요하다는 것을 시사하고 있다.

계절 아리마 모형을 이용한 관광객 예측 -경북 영덕지역을 대상으로-

손은호 ( Eun Ho Son ),박덕병 ( Duk Byeong Park ) 한국농촌지도학회 2012 농촌지도와 개발 Vol.19 No.2

The study uses a seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the number of tourists of Yeongdeok in an uni-variable time series. The monthly data for time series were collected ranging from 2006 to 2011 with some variation between on-season and off-season tourists in Yeongdeok county. A total of 72 observations were used for data analysis. The forecast multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model was found the most appropriate one. Results showed that the number of tourists was 10,974 thousands in 2012 and 13,465 thousands in 2013, It was suggested that the grasping forecast model is very important in respect of how experts in tourism development in Yeongdeok county, policy makers or planners would establish strategies to allocate service in Yeongdeok tourist destination and provide tourism facilities efficiently.

농촌관광마을 육성사업의 경제적 파급효과 분석

손은호 ( Eun Ho Son ),박덕병 ( Duk Byeong Park ),윤준상 ( Jun Sang Yoon ) 한국농촌지도학회 2014 농촌지도와 개발 Vol.21 No.3

산업연관분석은 현재 관광산업의 경제적 파급효과를 분석하는 데 널리 사용되고 있다. 이 연구는 소득과 고용의 측면에서 지역개발에 영향을 미치는 농촌관광마을 육성사업의 경제적 파급효과를 분석하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위하여 한국은행(2011)에서 작성한 산업연관표(2009)를 이용하여 농촌관광의 생산, 소득, 고용, 부가가치 승수를 도출하였다. 산업연관모형에 의한 경제적 파급효과 분석결과, 2011년 농촌관광개발로 인한 직간접 및 유발 생산파급액은 1조3,872억 원, 소득파급액은 2,872억 원, 부가가치파급 액은 2,754억 원, 고용자는 41,127명에 이르는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 음식점 업의 생산과 고용승수는 타 산업에 비하여 높은 반면, 소득 및 부가가치승수는 타 산업에 비하여 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 음식점업이 노동집약적인 산업으로 고용창출효과가 높은 산업이라는 것을 시사해주고 있다. Input-output(I-O) analysis is now widely used to examine the economic impact of tourism. The study aims to demonstrate the impact of agri-tourism development project on local development in terms of income and employment. Based on the I-O transaction stables developed by Bank of Korea (2011), rural tourism related sectoral multipliers were derived with respect to output, income, employment, and value-added tax. The results of the I-O model indicate that in 2011, rural tourism development generated 1,387billion Won of output impact, 287 billion Won of income impact, 275billion Won of value-added impact, and 41,127 full-time jobs, respectively throughout direct, indirect, and induced effects. Inparticular, the restaurant sector had relative higher output and employment multipliers as compared to other industries, whereas they had lower multipliers of income and value-added than any other industries. The findings imply that the restaurant sector was relatively labor-intensive industry, generating high impact of employment effects.

3차원 공간 맵핑을 통한 로봇의 경로 구현

손은호(Eun-Ho Son),김영철(Young-Chul Kim),정길도(Kil-To Chong) 제어로봇시스템학회 2008 제어·로봇·시스템학회 논문지 Vol.14 No.2

Path finding is a key element in the navigation of a mobile robot. To find a path, robot should know their position exactly, since the position error exposes a robot to many dangerous conditions. It could make a robot move to a wrong direction so that it may have damage by collision by the surrounding obstacles. We propose a method obtaining an accurate robot position. The localization of a mobile robot in its working environment performs by using a vision system and Virtual Reality Modeling Language(VRML). The robot identifies landmarks located in the environment. An image processing and neural network pattern matching techniques have been applied to find location of the robot. After the self-positioning procedure, the 2-D scene of the vision is overlaid onto a VRML scene. This paper describes how to realize the self-positioning, and shows the overlay between the 2-D and VRML scenes. The suggested method defines a robot"s path successfully. An experiment using the suggested algorithm apply to a mobile robot has been performed and the result shows a good path tracking.

호텔산업 : 핵심역량과 경쟁전략 간의 적합성이 경영성과에 미치는 영향 -호텔기업을 중심으로-

손은호 ( Eun Ho Son ),김경환 ( Kyung Hwan Kim ) 한국호텔경영학회 ( 구 한국호텔외식경영학회 ) 2007 추계학술대회 Vol.2007 No.-

농촌관광의 방문객 만족에 관한 연구

손은호(Eun-Ho Son),박덕병(Duk-Byeong Park) 한국농어촌관광학회 2010 농어촌관광연구 Vol.17 No.4

The study aims to identify the factors influenced visitors’ satisfaction in the sustainable rural tourism village, Cheju. A self-administered survey was obtained from 308 questionnaires returned by visitors of rural tourism village. We hired the factor analysis and the multiple regression analysis to examine the determinant of visitors satisfaction. The results of the analysis indicated that factors affecting visitors’ satisfaction were all of factors such as guiding skill, activities, cost, access, and accommodations. The results suggest that village leaders and policy makers should consider enhancing guiding skills and providing information for tourists and tourism activities to sustain rural tourism village.

ARIMA모형을 이용한 호텔식음료 매출액의 예측

손은호(Son Eun-Ho),서진우(Shu Jin-Woo),정명보(Jeong Myeung-Bo) 한국관광레저학회 2005 관광레저연구 Vol.17 No.3

농촌관광마을의 숙박객 예측

손은호(Eun-Ho Son),박덕병(Duk-Byeong Park) 한국농어촌관광학회 2009 농어촌관광연구 Vol.16 No.4

As a new rural tourism policy, the rural tourism development project (RTDP) for promoting rural economy and increasing rural quality of life has been launched by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry since 2002. The study uses seasonal ARIMA model to forecast the farm stay tourists of the RTDP in the uni-variable time series. Time series quarterly data for the investigation were collected ranging from 2005 to 2008. A total of 16 observations were used for data analysis. Results show that the number of tourist was 670 thousands in 2010, 660 thousands in 2015, and 679 thousands in 2020. It was suggested that the grasping of the RTDP forecast model is very important in respect of how experts in tourism development, policy makers or planners would establish strategies to allocate service in agricultural district regions and develop agricultural district communities and provide tourism facilities efficiently.

농촌관광개발이 지역주민의 만족도에 미치는 영향

손은호(Son Eun-Ho),박덕병(Park Duk-Byeong) 한국농어촌관광학회 2009 농어촌관광연구 Vol.16 No.3

This study aimed to investigate the impact of rural tourism development on resident’s satisfaction. An survey was conducted to accomplish this purpose on scientifically selected samples of residents. The analysis was from 348 questionnaires returned by residents of rural tourism village. In the analysis of the collected data, we used statistical processing program called SPSS, after getting the collected data through the data coding process. and used the multiple regression analysis. Results revealed that the positive factor of economic impact has a significant on resident’s satisfaction, whereas other positive factors do not have a significant on resident’s satisfaction.

Spreading Oil 제형 Cyclosulfamuron과 Fentrazamide 혼합제의 논 잡초 방제 효과

손은호(Eun Ho Son),오성환(Sung Hwan Oh),이철원(Chul Won Lee) 韓國雜草學會 2005 Weed&Turfgrass Science Vol.25 No.1