국제곡물시장분석과 해외곡물시장정보시스템 구축 및 운영 (3/3차연도)

성명환(Sung Myung-hwan),이동소(Lee Dong-so),손은애(Son Eun-ae) 한국농촌경제연구원 2014 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

국제곡물시장 분석과 해외곡물시장정보체계 구축 및 운영

성명환(Myung Hwan Sung),한석호(Suk-Ho Han),권대흠(Dae Heum Kwon),윤병삼(Byung Sam Yoon),승준호(Jun-ho Seung),윤재웅(Jae Woong Yoon),권나경(Na-kyung Kwon),신인애(In-Ae Shin),한근수(Keun-Soo Han),이동필 한국농촌경제연구원 2012 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

잡곡의 유통 실태 조사 분석

성명환(Sung, Myung-Hwan),권대흠(Kwon, Dae-Heum),오세익 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

The purpose of this study is to identify the status of coarse grains produced in Korea and to find implications required for facilitating the Korean minor cereal industry on the basis of conversion of consumer’s preference and the direction of agricultural policies. To this purpose, we collect and analyze basic data for identifying the status of Korean minor cereal industry through survey of distribution of coarse grains produced in Korea. There is a great opportunity for increasing production and distribution of coarse grains produced in Korea. With the spread of food consumption pattern oriented to healthy living and increasing old-age groups, consumer preference for coarse grains produced in Korea is still high. Changes of agricultural policies contribute to the great opportunity for increasing the market of coarse grains produced in Korea as well. That is, it is encouraged to grow other crops instead of rice in paddies by means of support policies because of accumulated rice stocks resulting from recent decrease in rice consumption in Korea. Referring to the result of this study, coarse grains, e.g., millet, foxtail millet, Indian millet, adzuki beans, etc., are valuable for different use as well as healthy functional food. Therefore, it is necessary to make an effort for advertising and commercializing the use of coarse grains mentioned above. By the way, cultivation of coarse grains still depends highly on manual work because of the low level of mechanized farming and it has a weak basis for soil management, e.g., drainage and water supply facilities which is thus a factor of lowering productivity and lower quality. However, it is necessary to attempt diversified cropping systems including cropping paddies, fields, etc., for improving farmers" income as well as efficient use of farm land, since coarse grain has short growing period as compared to low productivity and a wide range of adaptation to the environment. With reference to current distribution of millet, foxtail millet, Indian millet, adzuki beans, etc. Nonghyup as a processing and selling union of farmers rather than local distributors have been engaged in distribution. Even though farmers" association has a high market share in producers" market, the share of Nonghyup as a processer and seller in wholesale market is significantly low as compared to the high share of private processors and wholesalers. The reason that a high share of farmers’ associations in producers" market is not connected to the step of wholesale is due to the significantly improving capacity of private processors and intermediate wholesalers for processing and selling the cereals. However, the scale of Nonghyup’s processing and selling coarse grains at the wholesale step is stagnant, resulting in farmers associations’ lowered competitiveness as compared to the private business sector. Coarse grains can be a highly usable factor for vitalizing local agriculture. Coarse grains can be cultivated with less agricultural chemicals and are environment-friendly crops as well. Therefore, it is worth to actively enhance the farming structure of coarse grains, focused on individual farm households to organize specialized business based on local agriculture and to promote construction of production bases, e.g., installation of drainage in hillside paddies for encouraging to cultivate coarse grains in the paddies, abd installation of hire business sites for farm machines and equipment.

미국과 유럽의 사례를 통해 본 증오범죄 통계법안(2016년 이종걸 의원안) 고찰

성명환(Sung, Myung-hwan),심희섭(Shim, Hee Sub) 한국민간경비학회 2021 한국민간경비학회보 Vol.19 No.5

증오범죄는 피해자 개인에게 신체적‧정신적 악영향을 초래할 뿐만 아니라 동일한 특질을 지닌 인구집단에게 부정적이고도 포괄적인 파급력을 미칠 수 있다는 점에서 국가 차원에서 더 이상 도외시하기 어렵다. 이러한 맥락에서, 2016년 국회에서 제안되었다가 철회되었던 「증오범죄 통계법안」에 대한 본고의 검토는 충분히 의미가 있다. 미국과 유럽 사례의 검토를 바탕으로 한 본고의 연구 결과, 해당 법안은 증오범죄의 개념 정의에 있어서 묻지마 범죄의 개념을 포섭하고, 행위양태에 대한 아무런 제한을 두고 있지 않으며, 보호대상으로 하는 개인적 특질을 제한적으로 기술하는 등 국제적 흐름과는 다소 차이를 보이고 있음을 확인하였다. 관련 문제점에 대한 제언을 말미에 논의하였다. Hate crimes are difficult to ignore in that they not only lead to negative physical/mental effects on respective victims but also have a comprehensive negative impact on such a population group with the same characteristics. In this context, the review of this study on the ‘Hate Crime Statistics Bill,’ which was proposed by the National Assembly in 2016 and eventually withdrawn, is meaningful. Main findings, which are based on a comparison with both American and European approaches, include that the bill improperly define the concept of the motiveless crime, sets no limit on its behavior modality, and omits the specific range of individual victim’s traits that are subject to protection. That is, there is some room for doubt whether the bill is in line with the global standards. In addition to describing additional, several problems concerning the 2016 bill, suggestions responding to each problem are discussed.

국제곡물선물시장의 분석과 활용방안

성명환(Myung Hwan Sung),권대흠(Kwon Dae Heum),윤재웅(Yoon Jae Woong),윤병삼(Yoon Byung Sam) 한국농촌경제연구원 2012 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

국산콩 생산 및 유통 문제점

성명환 ( Myung Hwan Sung ),승준호 ( Jun Ho Seung ) 韓國콩硏究會 2009 韓國콩硏究會誌 Vol.26 No.1

국제곡물시장분석과 해외곡물시장 정보시스템 구축 및 운영

성명환(Myung-Hwan Sung),한석호(Suk-Ho Han),손미연(Mi-Yeon Son),김원용(Won-Yong Kim),정기호(Ki-Ho Jeong) 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Background of Research The objective of this study is to provide various information on world grain market to policy makers and related industries. For this objective, development of world grain price prediction model, causal relationship on domestic and international price gaps and effect of international grain price fluctuations on domestic prices are analyzed. Meanwhile, major information on world grain market is provided in the Korea Rural Economic Institute"s World Grain Market Website. Method of Research This study is divided into two parts. First is research part for world grain market analysis and second is operational part to provide related information to the world grain market information system. Hypothetical grain price fluctuations are analyzed by exporting countries through a scenario analysis. To predict world grain prices, a VAR model which is a multivariate time series technique is used to develop a predicting model for wheat, corn and soybean. World grain information system"s operational part maintains their system by adding and supplementing detailed information step by step and publications “World Grain Market” periodically. Research Results and Implications Medium and long term world grain supply-demand prediction shows that production and consumption will make demand-supply balance. However, the range of fluctuation on yearly production is increasing due to recent climate changes. Exporter/importers" policy changes according to production fall and global economic changes are also causing imbalance in supply and demand. According to the results of world grain market scenario analysis, the price elasticity of international soybean price to Chinese soybean import is 0.44. Since year 2004/05, the rise in Chinese meat consumption has increased international soybean price by 27.8$/t during 8 years. Price elasticity of international corn price to U.S. corn (Bio ethanol) import is 0.15. Since year 2004/05, corn price rose 7.9$/t during 8 years. The price elasticity of international soybean and corn prices to Brazil production is 0.8 and 0.1 respectively. Since year 2004/05, international soybean and corn price fell 48$/t and 4.6$/t each during 8 years. The price elasticity of international wheat to Australian wheat output is 0.1. The deteriorating weather increased the wheat price by 10$/t since year 2004/05 for 8 years. To operate international grain information system, we need to examine methods to provide information, review composition of contents and improve ways to deliver suitable situation of domestic grains. Also, we need to satisfy users" information demands and conduct surveys to understand users" needs on processing information. Through above research, we must reinforce abilities to react on repeated rise and falls of world grain prices. We need to deliver accurate information of world grain price fluctuations, construct international grain price prediction models for related industries and consumers, and help to react in sudden changes. Meanwhile, we must aim to manage grain prices for domestic price stabilization and diversify transaction methods to stabilize primary agricultural product prices to stabilize domestic food consumption market.

해외곡물시장 동향과 해외곡물시장정보체계 구축방안

성명환(Myung-Hwan Sung),박동규(Dong-Gyu Park),권대흠(Dae-Heum Kwon),이웅연(Woong-Yun Lee),김윤희(Yoon-Hee Kim),이동필 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

최근 국제 곡물가격의 급등으로 절대적인 가격수준이 크게 상승한 것과 더불어 곡물가격의 변동성도 크게 확대되었다. 국제 곡물가격의 상승은 우리나라와 같은 수입국의 입장에서 곡물 수입에 더 많은 비용을 지출해야 한다는 것을 의미하고, 곡물가격의 변동성 확대는 보다 큰 가격변동 위험에 직면하게 된다는 것을 의미한다. 반면 현재 우리나라의 세계 곡물시장에 대한 정보는 해외 관련 기관이나 언론사 정보에 크게 의존하고 있다. 그러나 현재까지 해외기관으로부터 입수하는 정보는 단편적이고 2차적인 자료로, 해외곡물시장의 동향을 신속하게 파악하고 능동적으로 대처하기 어렵다. 따라서 해외곡물시장의 변화를 체계적으로 분석하고, 필요한 정보를 효율적으로 보급할 수 있는 방안을 마련해야 한다. 이를 위해서 우선 미국, FAO 등 국제기구, 정부기관 및 관련 기관으로부터 나오는 곡물시장 정보를 체계적으로 수집, 분석할 수 있는 방안의 마련이 필요하다. 이를 바탕으로 전 세계에서 제공하는 곡물시장 정보에 대한 평가와 향후 전망에 대한 능동적인 정보를 제공할 수 있는 체계를 구축해야 한다. 이 연구의 목적은 해외곡물시장 변동 상황에 대한 신속하고 체계적인 파악과 분석을 위한 정보시스템의 구축방안을 마련하는 데 있다. 궁극적인 목표는 해외곡물시장 변동 상황에 대한 포괄적이고 체계적인 정보를 적시에 제공할 수 있는 해외곡물시장정보시스템을 구축하는 것이다. 이를 위해서 국제곡물시장의 변동과 관련된 정보를 체계적으로 분류하고 해외시장정보를 포괄할 수 있는 단계적 구축방안을 제시하였다. 해외곡물시장정보시스템의 효율적인 구축을 위해서는 개별시장의 단편적 변화를 국제곡물시장의 전체적 측면에서 체계적으로 이해하려는 접근이 필요하다. 이러한 측면에서 정보시스템 구축의 초기 단계에서는 우선 국제곡물시장의 기본 수급 정보를 정기적으로 생산하는 정보시스템을 구축하여야 한다. 이를 바탕으로 보다 상세한 시장 정보를 단계적으로 추가 보완하여 정보시스템을 확장해 나가는 단계적 구축방안을 설정할 필요가 있다. 궁극적으로 국제곡물시장과 관련된 포괄적이고 체계적인 정보를 적시에 제공할 수 있는 정보체계 구축을 지향하여야 한다. 해외곡물시장정보시스템 운영 주체로서 정부기관, 비정부기관, 시민단체, 관련업계 전문가 등으로 구성된 가칭 ‘식량안보위원회’를 설치하여 운영할 필요가 있다. 구축된 해외곡물시장 정보시스템의 운영에 대한 평가도 이루어져야 한다. 또한 시스템의 원활한 운영을 위해 정보 시스템 운영 업무에 있어서 발생되는 건의사항을 즉각적으로 반영하고 보완할 수 있어야 한다. Recent surge in international grain prices significantly increased the absolute price level, along with expanded volatility in grain prices. From the perspective of the importing country such as Korea, the rise in international grain prices level and volatility means more money is required to import grains with greater risk. On the other hand, our current information on the world grain market is largely dependent on the foreign agencies and media. Since our current information is mostly fragmented and secondary materials, it is difficult to identify and proactively deal with the sudden changes in the international grain market. For the purpose of building new information system to effectively analyze and efficiently disseminate the information on changes in international grain markets, current major information systems of the futures markets such as CME and government agencies such as U.S. and FAO are systematically analyzed as the initial step. Based on that, this study provides establishment plan to build our new information system that can provide our proactive assessment and future prospects on the world grain market. The objective of this study is to provide establishment plan to build information system for the quick identification and systematic analysis of the international grain market situation. The ultimate goal is to establish the world grain information system that can provide comprehensive and detailed information on the international grain market fluctuations in a timely manner. To accomplish this objective, the information related with the international grain market fluctuation is systematically classified and the step-by-step building measures are provided. In order to establish efficient grain market information system, we need to systematically understand and analyze piecemeal changes in the individual market in terms of overall international grain markets. From this perspective, we need to establish new information system to provide the basic supply and demand information on a regular basis at the early stage of building process. Based on this, the phased plan should be set out to extend it for the more detailed market information with our own assessment of market situations step by step. Ultimately, our new information system should provide the comprehensive and detailed information on the international grain market in a timely manner The new information system should be operated by the so-called 『food security Commission』that consists of government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and industry experts. We also need evaluation mechanisms on the established information system. In addition, the new information system should be able to reflect any suggestions and comments.

농업인의 사료용 유전자변형 작물 재배 의사 추정

김승규,류진,정재원,성명환,김태균,Kim, Seung Gyu,Ryu, Jin,Jung, Jae-Won,Sung, Myung-Hwan,Kim, Tae-Kyun 한국초지조사료학회 2015 한국초지조사료학회지 Vol.35 No.4

본 연구는 전국의 686개 농가에 대한 설문조사를 통해 농가의 GM 기술과 GM 작물 및 이를 활용한 사료에 대한 인식, 농가의 생산 현황과 속성을 바탕으로 농가의 GM 벼(쌀)와 GM 사료작물에 대한 기술 수용성을 분석하였다. 개별적인 농가 속성에 따라 수용 의사가 다르지만, 2개의 GM 기술 수용성 추정에서 공통적으로 GM 기술 수용 의사를 높이는 변수는 GM 농작물의 필요성에 대한 인식과 잡곡이나 조사료 재배여부로 나타났다. 평균적인 경종 농가의 경우 7.8% 유의수준에서 농가소득이 47% 증가할 경우 벼(쌀)에 대한 GM 기술을 수용하고, 벼(쌀)를 제외한 사료작물의 경우에는 14.1% 유의수준에서 농가소득이 43% 증가할 때 GM 기술을 수용하는 것으로 분석되었다. 벼(쌀)와 비교해서 사료 작물은 상대적으로 적은 소득 증가에도 불구하고 수용 가능성이 나타났다. 그러나 두 가지 경우 모두 통계적 유의성이 5%를 넘어가 신뢰도에 문제가 있다. 앞으로 GM 기술에 대한 신뢰성이 높아짐에 따라 CVM에서 발생하는 가상적 편의가 줄어든다면 통계적 유의성이 높아질 것으로 기대되므로 이에 대한 추가 연구가 필요하다. Cultivating genetically modified (GM) crops is believed to be a practical solution to meet the increasing food demand, but GM crops are not legal in Korea mainly due to food safety issues. Even though the general public might not be ready to consume GM food, GM crops are imported and consumed as food and feed. To analyze farmers's willingness to grow GM crops for feed, a survey was conducted among crop farmers and 640 valid responses were collected by mail. In the questionnaire, the farmers were asked to select either 'yes' or 'no' if they were willing or not willing to cultivate GM rice and GM grass, respectively, under the given hypothetical income increase rate (i.e., 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, or 70%). Logit regression was used to estimate the two dichotomous choices by explanatory variables including hypothetical income increase rate. The results show that farmers are willing to cultivate GM rice and grass when their income is expected to increase by 47% and 43%, respectively.

양정개혁(2004년) 평가와 과제

박동규(Dong-Gyu Park),성명환(Myung-Hwan Sung),김영훈(Young-Hoon Kim),박미성(Mi-Sung Park),사공용(Yong Sagong),이정환(Jung-Hwan Lee) 한국농촌경제연구원 2010 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-