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국지가중회귀(Locally Weighted Regression) 모형을 활용한 아파트 실거래가격지수 산정방법에 관한 연구
박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ) 한국부동산분석학회 2011 不動産學硏究 Vol.17 No.1
A real estate price index tracks the price of a standard unit of housing over time. The index typically is constructed from observations on the sale price and their characteristics. Due to the requirement of the stability of the index, I assumed four different types of houses. With centering on them, I estimated locally weighted regressions (LWR) of hedonic price models and constructed the transaction-based price indices from January 2006 to October 2010 for Gangnam Gu, Seoul. The appraisal-based KB indices have appraisal smoothing problems in which they have low volatility and time-lag but the proposed transaction-based price indices do not show those problems.
서울시 아파트가격의 동학적 특성에 관한 연구 주택가격변화의 계열상관과 균형복귀율 추정을 중심으로
박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ),유은영 ( Eun Young Yoo ) 한국부동산분석학회 2013 不動産學硏究 Vol.19 No.4
This research analyzes the long-run and short-run dynamic properties of apartment prices in Seoul by using quarterly time series data from 2006 to 2012. In order to analyze the long-run dynamic characteristics of apartment prices, market equilibrium prices are estimated by using a reduced-form equation arising from the equilibrium condition of demand and supply. For analyzing the short-run dynamic features of apartment prices, a price adjustment model is built and estimated on the standpoints of serial correlation and mean reversion. In the first-stage of analysis, panel estimation with fixed effects of Gu"" dummy variables fits the data very well and all variables in the equation have the expected signs and are statistically significant at the 5% level. The second-stage of analysis uses the estimates of the equilibrium prices from the first-stage. The empirical results show that house prices exhibit a strong serial correlation with a coefficient of 0.489, and the rate of mean reversion is 0.165. The realizations of the estimated serial correlation and mean reversion are spread over 25 ""Gu"" regions. Sixty-seven percent of observations lie in the no-oscillation and convergent region and another 32.2% falls in the no-oscillation and convergent region which implies that during the sample period in Seoul, the movements of apartment price can be largely explained by the long-run and short-run models, and there have been no sustainable apartment price bubbles.
박헌수(Heon Soo Park) 한국지역개발학회 2001 韓國地域開發學會誌 Vol.13 No.1
이 논문에서는 Brown et al. (1990)이 제안한 단순지역간 고용모형에 노동자의 공급측면을 추가하여 수요측면과 공급측면의 외부충격(shocks)에 대한 노동시장의 동학적 조정과정을 시뮬레이션 과정을 통해 살펴본다. 이러한 과정을 통해 경제변동에 노동시장의 반응들을 보다 잘 이해하고자 하는데 그 목적이 있다. 주요 연구 결과는 외부충격이 임의보행(random walk)의 경우 지역간 임금수준의 격차에는 단기적으로 영향을 미치는 반면, 지역간 고용수준의 격차에는 장기적으로 영향을 미치게 된다. 이러한 사실은 노동시장에서 시장개입 정책이 지역경제 성장에 매우 중요한 역할을 하는 것을 시사하고 있다.
특성가격모형을 활용한 아파트 실거래가격지수 산정방법에 관한 연구
박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ) 한국부동산분석학회 2009 不動産學硏究 Vol.15 No.3
A real estate price index tracks the price of a standard unit of housing over time. The index typically is constructed from observations on the sale price and characteristics of a sample of house sales. This paper constructs the transaction-based price indices from January 2006 to September 2009 by using hedonic price model. Due to the requirement of the stability of the index, the paper recommends the time varying parameter model specification in hedonic price approach. By using 255,792 transaction data in Seoul, the appraisal-based KB index have appraisal smoothing problems in which they have low volatility and time-lag but the transaction-based price index do not show those problems.