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생태학적 추론(Ecological Inference) 서설
박원호(Won-Ho Park) 고려대학교 평화와민주주의연구소 2013 평화연구 Vol.21 No.2
20세기 중반의 행태주의 혁명을 이끌었던 현대 사회과학의 중심에는 조사연구를 통한 서베이 자료의 축적이 자리하고 있지만, 매우 풍부한 집계 자료에 대한 관심의 끈을 연구자들이 잃게 된 이면 또한 존재한다. 생태학적 추론은 이러한 집계 자료와 개인의 행태를 연결하는 이론적 작업 이다. 본 논문에서는 생태학적 추론의 한 주요 의제이자 가장 어려운 문제 중의 하나인 투표자 전환율을 집계 자료를 통해 추정하는 작업을 수행하는데, 지난 2012년 총선과 대선에서 나타난 투표자 전환율을 여러 생태학적 추론 테크닉을 적용하여 추정한 후, 개인 수준의 패널 자료와 비교한다. 특히, 여러 추론의 전략 중, 미시적 모델링에 기반한 당파성 모델이 다른 추론 전략들에 비해 상당한 우위에 있음을 보인다. 생태학적 추론은 여전히 많은 난제들과 한계들로 점철된 분야이지만 창의적이고 새로운 아이디어를 통해 꾸준히 사회과학의 지평을 넓혀온 중요한 기술(art)이기도 것이다. On the other side of the successes and achievements that survey methodology brought into social sciences is our lost interest in aggregate data that can provide more opportunities with its richness, coverage, accuracy, and dynamism. Ecological inference simply is a collective art that tries to repair the missing link between aggregate information and individual behavior. In this paper, I test multiple ecological inference techniques by estimating the voter transition rate in the elections that took place in 2012 from aggregate data and compare them with individual-level panel results. I argue that a direct micro-modeling of voter preferences can provide reliable ecological estimates for voter transition rates, and find a good example in the partisanship model.
박원호(Park Won-ho) 고려사학회 2009 한국사학보 Vol.- No.34
Korean history has come a long way by overcoming the colonial history through "intrinsic development theory" since 1960's. It is now high time that the objective Korean history should be outlined that is compatible with those of surrounding far eastern countries, a framework that is not uni-nation but globally oriented. Korean history is not very suitable for direct linkage to the world history, so the need for the "East Asian History" is shared among schools of researchers. The geographical boundaries may vary, with the minimum including entities sharing literary Chinese. The East Asian History has long been centered on Chinese history to an extreme extent. To achieve the new framework, one would need fresh approach to "China" from the historical point of view, and long-neglected description on Northern tribes should be included with due weight. By placing Korean history, free from one-nation oriented perspectives, one should rewrite "Korean history as a part of East Asian History." Drawing Korean history as a part of East Asian one is not the process of dissolving Korean into East Asian, but of emphasizing the uniqueness of it. Recently one observes the emergence, among western researchers, of global or transnational history, which is outside the scope of foundation of modern history, namely the national history. With the scope for the transnational history that recognizes "national" while emphasizing the "trans-national" perspective, we should upgrade our history from "national" to large framework. East Asian as a part of the global and korean as the part of East Asian history.