공동주택 개발사업 타당성 분석모형의 전산화

박근준,신우식,Park, Keun-Joon,Shin, Woo-Shik 한국건설관리학회 2007 건설관리 : 한국건설관리학회 학회지 Vol.8 No.2

공동주택 개발사업의 타당성 검토는 분양성 및 수익성을 검토하는 부문과 법규, 환경 등의 정성적 부문이 있다. 이러한 타당성 분석업무를 합리적으로 진행하기 위하여 분석모형의 구축이 필요하고 또한 이를 보다 효율적이며 효과적으로 사용할 수 있도록 전산화 방법의 마련이 필요하다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 기설정된 분석대상항목, 항목의 범주, 그 평가기준을 활용하여 타당성 분석모형의 전산화를 구축하고 이의 합리성을 입증하기 위하여 사례 프로젝트를 선정, 기존 방법으로 산출한 타당성 분석 결과와 함께 사례 프로젝트의 실제 분양결과를 모형의 전산화로 적용된 사례 프로젝트 분석결과와 비교 대비하도록 한다. 비교대비결과, 분석모형의 전산화에 의하여 산출된 결과 값이 실제 분양결과와 일정한 상관성이 있음을 보이고 있다. 즉, 사례 프로젝트별 수익성은 모형을 이용한 분석방법이 보다 실제와 접근하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 따라서, 공동주택 개발사업 타당성 분석모형의 전산화에 의한 타당성 분석작업은 보다 효율적이며 타당성 평가예측의 정확도를 높이는 툴(tool)로서 평가된다. The development project usually aims to get a certain amount of return for its investment in land and capital. The success of such project is dependent on the accurate analysis of the feasibility and for casting. It is, however, very difficult to predict due to various environmental factors. For this, it is necessary to constitute a systematic and objective method of analysis. However, there is no method of analysis for numerous qualitative factors, such as legal, environmental, marketability. Moreover, conventional methods have some limitations because they are processed without all the scope of analysis items and any evaluation criteria. Therefore, this study will provide computerization model for feasibility study focusing on the apartment development project by a pre-sall method. This research does casestudies to assess the feasibility analysis by the computerization model and compares to the results of the conventional methods. It showed that the evaluation results for the qualitative analysis were proportional to actual sale result. This implies that qualitative subjective factors have high correlation with sale rate and sale prices.

VE 평가기법 개발에 관한 연구

박근준(Keun-Joon Park),허원영(Won-Young Heo),최인태(In-Tae Choi),김지영(Ji-Young Kim) 호서대학교 공업기술연구소 2006 공업기술연구 논문집 Vol.25 No.1

The principal stages of the development of building projects are planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance. The designer and the constructor consider the user s needs concerning the building and set out to complete the project economically and functionally feasible. VE is constantly making a value analysis of the building within a defined level of quality. But, there are several limitations associated with the evaluation methodology for VE. No quality evaluation system exists that permits the performance grades to be calculated directly from the excuted condition of building components. Since the performance grades are subjective to visual and artistic qualities, esthetic value and psychological security, those are not easy to be calculated. The process of value analysis begins by establishing a system of evaluation for the cost and quality performance of each building components based on the building performance standards to assure that the method makes the balance of shifts in size, function, complexity and quality as well as cost by Thus, this paper shows how to correct imbalances between the desired quality and cost of building components.

충남지역의 주택수요 예측인자 상관성 분석

박근준(Park. Keun-Joon),한용대(Han. Yong-Dae) 대한건축학회 2004 大韓建築學會論文集 : 構造系 Vol.20 No.7

This study examines the correlationship of forecasting factors for apartments on Chungnam area. Five major subject areas in<br/> Chungnam have been investigated, namely: Cheonan; Seosan; Gongju; Nonsan; and Boryeong.<br/> The investigation was based on an analysis of the work of time series data. The tendency of demand for apartment and<br/> correlation factors have been analysed within each of five investigation areas.<br/> One of the work facing the estimating the demands for apartment is the need to determine the correlation factors that can be<br/> effectively used in the model of forecasting. Accordingly, this study produced correlation matrix to find the optimum correlation<br/> factors among the trend of population, local taxes for each person, the number of households and the number of manufacturers.

건축단계별 비용요소의 상관성에 의한 비용체계구축에 관한 연구

朴根俊(Keun-Joon Park) 호서대학교 공업기술연구소 2001 공업기술연구 논문집 Vol.20 No.1

Building costs means capital costs which include cost of land, costs of acquiring and preparing the site, construction costs, professional fees, furnishings, cost of financing the project, and cost of management required to run and maintenance the building for use. There are several phases that determine the building costs : design phase, construction phase, and operation & maintenance phase. So, the cost of work could be set against the examining the full range of complexities that a building program might contain. To solve this problem, it needs to compute building cost systematically. This is still in the development stage, awaiting the organization of rational cost data base.* The method of cost saving by cost control could be constituted by detailed knowledge of building costs for all possible combinations of components and subsystems that can be assembled into integration model of cost factor on each phase of project development. The model of cost saving in each building phase is available for procedures of cost control of building systems.

주택수요 예측인자 영향도 분석에 의한 상관인자선정

박근준(Park Keun-Joon),양승원(Yang Seung-Won) 대한건축학회 2005 大韓建築學會論文集 : 構造系 Vol.21 No.9

건축부지의 법적용 체계화 방법

박근준(Keun-Joon Park),김지영(Ji-Young Kim) 호서대학교 공업기술연구소 2005 공업기술연구 논문집 Vol.24 No.1

There is no formal evaluation system to identify a array of legal decision elements of a construction site. This paper introduces the constitution of hierarchy for applicable legal contents on a construction site to evaluate the architectural use and the size. 1 he introduction to new evaluation system of architectural legal contents is an evolutionary process where acceptability is based on the analysis of applicable legal items for a construction site. 1 his ability to make good feasibility is a very important aspect of the construction process. The method used relied on subjective judgements based on the analysis of architectural legal items related with construction permit. In making systems we should decide the applicable legal items which are most appropriate to constitute the methodology. The case study requires us to consider the effective legal items available which influence the use and the size of the architectural buildings.

천안시 아파트 수요추정을 위한 모형구축방법

박근준(Park Keun-Joon),양승원(Yang Seung-Won) 대한건축학회 2003 大韓建築學會論文集 : 構造系 Vol.19 No.11

This study attempted to address certain elements that are measurable in order to forecast the growth of demand for apartments on Cheonan area.<br/> A good forecasting method needs to include both regional condition and historical trend-based data. Accordingly, this study was conducted to analyse elements of demands for apartments and develop the model of forecasting demands for apartments by using them.<br/> The model of forcasting demands for apartments was based on an regression analysis of the trend of population, local taxes for each person, the number of households and the number of manufacturers that were a type of time series data and categorized into main factors explained for correlation matrix.<br/> It was structured the p-p plot and scatterplot by analysing standardized residual and forcasted demands of apartments by entering the factors into the model. <br/> The main conclusions drawn from the analysis of elements related with demands for apartment on Cheonan area are that the expectation of apartment supplies can be estimated from the model of forecasting demands for apartments.

주택수요 예측을 위한 주택량과 상수도보급률의 상관성 분석

양승원,박근준,Yang Seung-Won,Park Keun-Joon 한국건설관리학회 2005 한국건설관리학회 논문집 Vol.6 No.2

지역별 적정 주택량을 공급하기 위해 수요예측 모형을 구축한다 예측모형은 자료유형에 따라 다소 차이가 있으나 시계열자료(Time Series Data) 분석기법에 의한 모형 구축 시 추정대상 지역특성을 민감히 반영할 수 있는 영향인자가 필요하다. 도시지역을 인구규모로 분류하여 영향인자를 분석할 경우, 대도시와는 달리 중 $\cdot$ 소도시는 주택량과 상수도보급률의 변화가 일정기간 민감한 상관관계가 존재하는 것으로 조사되고 있다. 이에 따라 중 $\cdot$ 소도시 주택수요 예측을 위해 상수도보급률을 유용하게 적용할 수 있는 구간, 즉 예측모형 구축이 가능한 시점까지의 도시 주택량과 인구수 규모를 찾아낼 필요가 있다. 따라서, 전국 중 $\cdot$ 소도시를 대상으로 주택량과 상수도 보급률의 상관관계가 중 소도시 지역에서만 있는 것으로 조사된 기존 연구 결과를 재 입증하고, 지역별 상관관계가 완화되는 시점의 시기, 상수도보급률, 주택량, 인구수 규모를 발견하는 것을 본 연구의 목적으로 한다. The analysis described in this paper indicate the existence of a correlationship for housing demand and water supply ratio. Using subjective statistical data for the trend of population on regional area, water supply ratio and the number of households, the paper examines the correlationship of forecasting factors for apartments in the ways in which the tendency of demands for apartments and water supply ratio have been analyzed within small and mediumsized city. Differences in the correlationship on the several scale of a city are also taken into account in the analysis. The summary table of the tendency for housing supplies, population and water supply ratio on each scale of a city was generated using data from LAIB. This study attempted to address certain factors that are measurable within a specified paradigm, in order to investigate the extent to which the expectation of apartment supplies can be estimated from the correlationship of water supply ratio. Therefore, it can be suggested that the limited scale of a city are set to maintain the correlationship for housing demands and water supply ratio.

주택수요 예측인자 영향도 분석에 의한 상관인자선정

양승원,박근준,Yang Seung-Won,Park Keun-Joon 한국건설관리학회 2005 건설관리 : 한국건설관리학회 학회지 Vol.6 No.1

주택수요는 수요유발 상관인자를 주축으로 한 주택수요 예측모형에 의하여 그 수표량을 예측할 수 있다. 이때, 주택수요 예측모형은 상관인자의 영향도에 따라서 인자의 미세한 추이변화에 대해서도 수요의 변화폭을 민감하게 제시하게 된다. 이를 위하여 주택수요 예측에 동원 될 수 있는 여러 상관인자들 가운데 영향도가 가장 큰 인자가 무엇인지 찾아낼 필요가 있다. 이때 대상인자의 데이터는 횡단면자료(Cross Section Data) 혹은 시계열자료(Time Series Data)분석으로 수행된다. 즉, 영향도가 가장 큰 인자들을 찾아내는 방법마련이 필요하며 이후 이 방법에 따른 상관인자의 도출이 가능함에 따라 영향도가 가장 큰 인자를 발굴하는 방법을 제시하고 이에 의한 상관인자를 도출하는 것을 본 연구의 목적으로 한다. This research describes an interactive process of analysing the demand factors for apartment on Cheonan area Using subjective statistical data for demand factor the process are categorized into main factors explained for the sensitiveness of correlation coefficient. This investigation is based on an analysis of the work of time series data One of the propose of this research is determining the correlation factors that can be effectively used in the model of forcasting. The results show a significant correlation coefficient on correlation matrix to iud the optimum correlation factors. The paper thus shows how to gain greater influntial factors on principal component analysis Consequently, this paper provides useful information about correlationship, but has limit of regional boundary for effectiveness.

공동주택 개발사업 타당성 분석대상 항목의 평가기준 설정

신우식,박근준,Shin, Woo-Shik,Park, Keun-Joon 한국건설관리학회 2005 건설관리 : 한국건설관리학회 학회지 Vol.6 No.5

개발형 건설프로젝트의 성공은 사업초기단계에서 얼마나 정확히 프로젝트의 타당성을 분석하고 예측하는가에 달려 있다. 그러나 건설프로젝트는 매우 다양하고 각 프로젝트별로 고려되는 요소들도 각기 다르게 적용된다. 또한, 다양한 주변의 환경요인으로 인해 프로젝트의 타당성을 사업초기단계에서 예측하는 것이 어려운 경우가 많다. 본 연구는 개발형 프로젝트중 공동주택 개발사업의 사업타당성 분석에 필요한 분석 대상항목 및 평가기준 설정을 연구의 목적으로 한다. 분석 대상항목 및 평가기준설정을 위해 관련 전문가를 대상으로 한 설문조사를 실시하여 각 분석 대상항목별 중요도에 의한 가중치를 산정하여 타당성 분석 평가기준을 마련하는데 이용토록 한다. 제시된 사업 타당성 분석 대상항목과 평가항목의 평가범위 기준설정은 사업타당성 분석업무 수행에 있어 유용하게 활용될 것으로 기대된다. This paper examines the method of evaluation for feasibility study factors on housing development projects which can assist project managers to asses potential sources of risk. The aim is to reduce uncertainty on the project objectives. The major initial goals for a feasibility analysis are to define a limited set of key related factors which apply to housing development project according to development and market environment, condition of project planning and economics. Thus, in order to construct types of factors related with the feasibility, the research executes Delphi Method subjected personnel in the task to explore housing development projects. Such exploration provide the information for Importance Index, Extra Weight and the Mean of Extra Weight that is used for constituting confines of factors related with a feasibility analysis.