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Dyna-CLUE 모델을 이용한 양평,여주 지역의 토지이용 변화 예측 및 평가
이동근 ( Dong Kun Lee ),류대호 ( Dae Ho Ryu ),김호걸 ( Ho Gul Kim ),이상혁 ( Sang Houck Lee ) 한국환경복원기술학회(구 한국환경복원녹화기술학회) 2011 한국환경복원기술학회지 Vol.14 No.6
Land-use changes have made considerable impacts on humans and nature such as biodiversity and ecosystem services. It is recognized as important elements for land use planning and regional natural resources conservation to identify the major causes of land use changes and to predict a process of changes and effects. This study, by using a spatially explicit Dyna-CLUE model, analyzed correlations between driving factors, quantified location characteristics of different land use types using logistic regression analysis and examined future land use changes and its effects in Yangpyeong and Yeoju region. We expected land use changes based on the three scenarios with different future land demands and simulated future changes for spatial variations of land use for the 20 years. The outcomes shows that larger change was found in agricultural areas than forest areas, based on the change in built-up areas. The changes in forest areas, which were mainly occurred in edge area, were expected to affect a large impact on its ecotone. It was found to be the importance of the management of forest edge and the necessity of the environmentally sound and sustainable development in order to conserve natural resources of the region.