주택시장구조 변화에 대한 실증 분석

장용동(Chang, Young–,Dong) 한국주거환경학회 2009 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.7 No.2

Korea is known to have the market structure changes around the time of the construction of 2 million houses and IMF foreign exchange crisis. This paper tries to verify the existence of structure changes and the change time points. First we carried the estimation of housing price equation which is believed to represent the market structure. The housing price equation fully contains the information of housing market even in the reduced form. We used the housing price as dependant variable and the Chonsei price, the GDP, the interest rate of corporate bond, the mortgage loans and the approved residential construction area as independent variables. The estimation shows the proper fitness with a good result of autocorrelation. Given with the estimated housing price equation we carried the statistical test for the structural changes of housing market. We used the three tests (Chow Test, Chow's Forecast Test, N-Step Forecast Test) and the results of all three tests indicate that the housing market experienced the market changes in 1991 and 1999(or 2000, 2001). These results are fully matched to the presumptions on the market structural changes. Also These findings imply that the policy makers must consider the market changes before they manipulate the market variables. Since there are market changes even the same policy tools could give the different results. It should give more uncertainty to the market instead of the stability. The statistical resutls show that there were market changes after IMF foreign crisis which means that the policy makers should select different set of policy tools different from those applied in the IMF foreign crisis. The proper and precise analysis of market movement must be done before the housing policy is adopted.

최빈국 지역정부의 기후변화적응계획 수립을 위한 기술적 가이드라인 개발 연구

장훈 ( Hoon Chang ),송영일 ( Young-il Song ),심창섭,문지원,이명주 한국환경정책평가연구원 2016 기후환경정책연구 Vol.2016 No.-

전 세계적으로 기후변화가 가속화됨에 따라 이로 인한 영향과 피해가 더욱 심각해지고 있다. 선진국보다는 최빈국이 기후변화에 의한 위험에 더욱 취약함에 따라 유엔기후변화협약에서 는 최빈국을 대상으로 기후변화로 인한 피해 저감을 위하여 기후변화적응계획 수립을 권고하였다. 유엔개발계획, 유엔기후변화협약 등의 국제기구 혹은 몇몇 국가에서는 기후변화적응계획 수립 가이드라인을 마련하여 최빈국의 적응계획 수립을 지원하고 있으나 현재까지 적응계획의 수립은 저조한 상황이다. 2010년 COP16에서부터 기후변화적응계획 수립을 권고하였으나 48개 최빈국 중 현재까지 다섯 국가에서만 적응계획 수립을 완료하였다. 한편 유엔자본 개발기금5)에서는 최빈국 지자체의 기후변화적응 능력 향상을 위해 LoCAL 프로젝트를 추진하고 있으며, KEI는 국내에서의 기후변화적응계획 수립 노하우를 토대로 동 프로젝트에 기술적 측면의 지원을 하고 있다. 이러한 KEI 지원의 일환으로 본 연구에서는 최빈국 지역정부의 기후변화적응계획 수립을 위한 가이드라인을 개발하고 이를 최빈국 중 하나인 부탄에 적용하였다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 가이드라인의 세부적인 내용은 다음과 같다. 중앙정부뿐만 아니라 지자체에서도 활용 가능하도록 국내외 기후변화적응계획 수립 관련 가이드라인을 검토하여, 절차별 방법이나 특성을 파악하였다. 그리고 부탄 및 캄보디아와 같은 일부 최빈국을 방문하여 현지 조사를 통해 가이드라인의 개발 방향을 정립하였다. 본 연구에서 제안하고 있는 기후변화적응계획 수립의 절차는 국내 기초지자체의 계획 수립 절차를 참고하였고, 절차별 과학적인 평가 방법은 필요한 자료의 유무나 질을 고려하여 정성적 또는 정량적 측면의 방법을 총 8단계로 나누어 제안하였다. 지역의 일반 현황과 기후변화 현황을 분석하고, RCP 시나리오 기반의 기후변화 전망을 분석하여 향후 기온이나 강수량이 기후변화로 인해 어떻게 변화하는지 예측하는 방법을 제안하였다. 그리고 이해당사자를 대상으로 기후변화적응에 대한 니즈를 파악하여 우선적으로 고려해야 할 사항이 무엇인지 판단하고, 과거 구축된 자료를 바탕으로 기후변화로 인한 재해 및 영향이 무엇인지 분석하는 방안을 제안 하였다. 취약성 평가는 수행 여건에 따라 정량적, 정성적 방법으로 평가될 수 있으며, 리스크는 3회에 걸친 전문가 설문을 통해 정성적인 방법으로 분석하도록 하였다. 이와 같이 분석된 종합적인 평가 결과를 기존의 최빈국 개발사업(investment menu)과 비교하여 적응계획 이행을 위하여 우선적으로 추진해야 할 사업을 선정하고, 체계적인 평가 및 모니터링 전략을 구축하는 등 전반적인 적응계획 수립 및 이행에 걸친 방안을 제안하였다. Due to accelerated climate change, its impacts and devastations are increasing day by day. As developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change compared to developed countries, UNFCCC recommended the development of a climate change adaptation plan in order to reduce their exposure to risks derived by climate change. Since COP 16, 2010, developing countries were encouraged to establish National Adaptation Plans(NAPs). Including UNDP and UNFCCC, many organizations proposed guidelines to assist the development of NAPs. yet only 5 out of 49 countries have officially submitted them. Meanwhile, UNCDF has been supporting the developing countries to foster their climate change adaptation capacities through LoCAL projects, while the Korea Environment Institute(KEI) has been providing technical elements for the projects. In alignment to such activities, this research have employed the guideline for the formation of the adaptation plans for local governments in Bhutan as a pilot program. The guideline is comprised by the study of various climate change adaptation planning guidelines and its attributes of each procedures. As case studies, field missions were carried out in Bhutan and Cambodia to enhance the understanding of the research. In regards of the process on composing the National Adaptation Plans, this research referred to the Korean national adaptation plans of the local governments. In consideration of the availability and quality of statistical information, the scientific procedures has been comprised in eight qualitative and qualitative steps. Through the analysis of the region`s general circumstances, climatic factors and RCP based scenario examinations, this research presents how to estimate the shift of temperature and precipitation altered by climate change. Moreover it raises the necessity of the needs of climate change adaptation to be prioritized through stakeholders and added on to the accumulated data and reviewed in the aspects of climate change disasters. For the vulnerability assessment, depending on the circumstances, both qualitative and quantitative methods may be applied and the risk evaluation will be conducted by three stages of expert surveys. The outcome derived by such methodologies will be assessed with prior LDC investment menus and considered when selecting the priority projects for initiating the adaptation plans.

Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

Lee, Jae-Bum,Cha, Jun-Seok,Hong, Sung-Chul,Choi, Jin-Young,Myoung, Ji-Su,Park, Rokjin J.,Woo, Jung-Hun,Ho, Changhoi,Han, Jin-Seok,Song, Chang-Keun Elsevier 2015 Atmospheric environment Vol.106 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global–regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996–2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R<SUP>2</SUP> values (0.4–0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016–2025 (the 2020s), 2046–2055 (the 2050s), and 2091–2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2–8 ppb, −3 to 8 ppb, and −7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Change in ozone level is determined by the combination of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC emissions. </LI> <LI> Ozone level over East Asia would get worse in the near future (the 2020s) than far future. </LI> <LI> A high-concentration event generally increases and more frequently occurs in the future. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developing country depends more on emissions change. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developed country depends more on climate change. </LI> </UL> </P>

펠던크라이스 기법, 탄성밴드 운동 및 복합운동 적용이 현대무용전공자의 체간근력에 미치는 영향

김채수(Kim Chae-Soo),권혜영(Kwon Hye-Young),이원재(Lee Won-Jae),조창모(Jo Chang-Mo),김진환(Kim Jin-Hwan),주성범(Ju Sung-Bum),이미경(Lee Mi-Kyoung) 한국체육과학회 2011 한국체육과학회지 Vol.20 No.1

This study is carried out to examine the effect of applying Feldenkrais method, elastic band training and combined training on trunk muscle. The subjects of this study were 32 modern dance majors and they were divided into four groups which consists of 8 peoples each, Feldenkrais method group(modern dance + Feldenkrais method), elastic band training group(modern dance + elastic band training), combined training group(modern dance + Feldenkrais method + elastic band training), and control group(modern dance). Measurement variables which are trunk muscle were measured before training, and after 4 and 8 weeks training and the results are as follow: In the left muscle strength change at Centaur 0°, Feldenkrais method group, elastic band training group and combined training group showed significant increase after 8 weeks training compared to before training. In the right muscle strength change, Feldenkrais method group and combined training group had significant increase after 8 weeks training. In the left muscle strength change at Centaur 45°, Feldenkrais method group and combined training group showed significant increase after 8 weeks training compared to before training and after 4 weeks training. Also elastic band training group showed significant increase after 8 weeks training compared to before training. In the right muscle strength change, Feldenkrais method group and elastic band training group significantly increased after 8 weeks training compared to before training. In the left muscle strength change at Centaur 90°, Feldenkrais method group and combined training group showed significant increase after 4 and 8 weeks training compared to before training. In the right muscle strength change, Feldenkrais method group showed significant increase after 4 and 8 weeks training compared to before training, and elastic band training group significantly increased after 8weeks training compared to before training. In the left muscle strength change at Centaur 135°, there was no significant changes. In the right muscle strength change, elastic band training group and combined training group showed significant increase after 8 weeks training compared to before training. In the left muscle strength change at Centaur 180°, combined training group showed significant increase after 4 and 8 weeks training compared to before training. In the right muscle strength change, combined training group showed significant increase after 4 and 8 weeks training compared to before training. From above results, applying 8 weeks regular program of Feldenkrais method, elastic band training and combined training to modern dance majors showed positive changes on improvement of trunk muscle strength and physical strength. Also this study implemented to verify the effects of trunk muscle strength and body balance through supplementary training program, and showed the effects in the training group and control group after 8 weeks trunk muscle strengthening program. Feldenkrais method, elastic band training and combined training are very effective to improve trunk muscle strength of modern dance majors so that continuous implementation and application of these effective training program shall be provided for strengthening trunk muscle.

Effect of Total Hip Arthroplasty on Ipsilateral Lower Limb Alignment and Knee Joint Space Width: Minimum 5-Year Follow-up

Choi Yun Seong,Park Jung-Wee,Kim Tae Woo,Kang Kee Soo,Lee Young-Kyun,Koo Kyung-Hoi,Chang Chong Bum 대한의학회 2023 Journal of Korean medical science Vol.38 No.20

Background: This study aimed to 1) assess the effect of total hip arthroplasty (THA) on coronal limb alignment, namely, the hip–knee–ankle angle (HKA), 2) identify factors that determine changes in the HKA, and 3) determine whether alignment changes influence the knee joint space width. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 266 limbs of patients who underwent THA. Three types of prostheses with neck shaft angles (NSAs) of 132°, 135°, and 138° were used. Several radiographic parameters were measured in the preoperative and final radiographs (at least 5 years after THA). A paired t-test was used to confirm the effect of THA on HKA change. Multiple regression analysis was performed to identify radiographic parameters related to HKA changes following THA and changes in knee joint space width. Subgroup analyses were performed to reveal the effect of NSA change on the HKA change, and the proportion of total knee arthroplasty usage and changes in radiographic parameters between maintained joint space and narrowed joint space groups were compared. Results: The preoperative mean HKA was 1.4° varus and increased to 2.7° varus after THA. This change was related to changes in the NSA, lateral distal femoral angle, and femoral bowing angle. In particular, in the group with a decrease in NSA of > 5°, the preoperative mean HKA was largely changed from 1.4° varus to 4.6° varus after THA. The prostheses with NSA of 132° and 135° also led to greater varus HKA changes than those with an NSA of 138°. Narrowing of the medial knee joint space was related to changes in the varus direction of the HKA, decrease in NSA, increase in femoral offset. Conclusion: A large reduction in NSA can lead to considerable varus limb alignment after THA, which can have adverse effects on the medial compartment of the ipsilateral knee.

전치개교의 교정치료후 과두위치 변화

신수정,장영일 대한 두개하악장애학회 1993 대한두개하악장애학회지 Vol.5 No.2

ABSTRACTThis study was aimed to evaluate the changes in condylar position when severe anterior open bite pa- tients were treated with MEAW.The subjects consisted of 11 patients(21 TMJs) who visited the departement of orthodontics in SNUH, having severe anterior open bite as a chief complain. They were supposed to wear the up and down elas- tics and MEAW after finishing the leveling. The condylar position was evaluated with individualized cor- rected tomography in centric occlusion taken before and after treatment.The results were as follows; 1. In the change of condylar position after treatment, there were no statistically significant differences in right and left TMJs. 2. In the change of condylar position after treatment, there were no statistically significant differences in each malocclusion groups. 3. There were no statistically significant differences in percent dispacement of condyle between before and after treatment. 4. There were no statistically significant differences in the amount of change in condylar change. This study was aimed to evaluate the changes in condylar position when severe anterior open bite patients were treated with MEAW. The subjects consisted of 11 patients(21 TMJs) who visited the departement of orthodontics in SNUH, having severe anterior open bite as a chief complain. They were supposed to wear the up and down elastics and MEAW after finishing the leveling. The condylar position was evaluated with individualized corrected tomography in centric occlusion taken before and after treatment. The results were as follows ; 1. In the change of condylar position after treatment, there were no statistically significant differences in right and left TMJs. 2. In the change of condylar position after treatment, there were no statistically significant differences in each malocclusion groups. 3. There were no statistically significant differences in percent dispacement of condyle between before and after treatment. 4. There were no statistically significant differences in the amount of change in condylar change.

Ⅲ급 부정교합자의 양악 수술과 하악 편악 수술 시 연조직 변화에 관한 비교 연구

박영국,장인희,이영준 대한치과교정학회 2006 대한치과교정학회지 Vol.36 No.1

악교정 수술 시행 시 연조직 변화에 대한 대부분의 연구는 Ⅱ급 부정교합을 대상으로 하였다. 또한 수술 방법에 따른 연조직 변화에 대한 비교 연구가 부족하였다. 따라서 이 연구는 골격성 Ⅲ급 부정교합자에서 상악골 전진술과 하악골 후퇴술을 동시에 시행한 양악 수술과 하악골 편악 수술 시행 시, 경조직과 연조직 측모 및 연조직 두께의 변화를 관찰하고, 수술 전후 변화의 상관성을 산출하며, 경조직 변화에 수반하는 연조직 변화의 비율을 산출하여 교정-악교정 수술 복합 치료 계획 수립과 결과의 예측에 이용하고자 시행되었다. 경희대학교 치과병원 교정과에 내원하여 골격성 Ⅲ급 부정교합자로 진단받은 환자 52명을 대상으로 하여, Le Fort I osteotomy를 이용한 상악골 전방이동술과 시상분할골절단술을 이용한 하악골 후퇴술을 시행한 양악 수술군 26명과 하악골 후퇴술만을 시행한 편악 수술군 26명으로 구분하여, 수술 전후 측모두부방사선규격사진을 계측, 분석하여 다음과 같은 결과를 얻었다. 양악 수술군은 골격 변화량의 72.4% 비율로 상순 부위 연조직의 전방 이동을 보였으며, 편악 수술군은 통계적으로 유의한 변화를 보이지 않았다. 비순각은 양악 수술군에서 편약 수술군에 비해 더 크게 증가하였다. 이순각은 편악수술군에서 더 크게 감소하였다. 하악골의 후방 이동에 따른 연조직 pogonion의 후방 이동은 양악 수술군에서 98%, 편악 수술군에서 109%로 편악 수술군에서 더 크게 나타났다. 양악 수술군에서는 편악 수술군에 비하여 경조직의 변화에 수반하는 상순에서의 큰 변화가 나타났다. 편악 수술군에서는 상순의 변화는 미약하엿으며, 하순 및 이부의 변화가 양악 수술군에 비해 두드러지게 나타났다. Numbers of postulations lie on the difference of integumental changes with two major surgical remedies of one jaw vs. two jaw surgery in skeletal Class Ⅲ malocclusion. Accordingly it was the aim of the study to elucidate the skeletal profile changes with an accompanying disposition of soft tissues, consequently to yield the correlation and ratio of soft tissue changes with two types of surgical procedures, which in turn make it possible to predict the soft tissue outcomes by means of assembled regression equations. Cephalometric headfilms of fifry two adult skeletal Class Ⅲ comprised of 26 maxillary advancement by Le Fort I osteotomy and mandibular setback by sagittal split ramus osteotomy simultaneously (double jaw surgery, group A), 26 mandibular setback alone (one jaw surgery, group B) were statistically analyzed. Group A manifested 72.4% soft tissue advancement to skeletal changes in the upper lip area, while group B appeared to have no statistically significant changes. The nasolabial angle showed more increment in group A than in group B, whereas the mentolabial angle illustrated more reduction in group B. The backward movement of soft tissue pogonion to skeletal change revealed 98% in group A, and 109% in group B. The double jaw surgery group characteristically revealed remarkable integ umental change in the upper lip area, while the one jaw surgery had major effects in the lower lip and soft tissue pogonion areas.

걷기운동과 조깅운동의 지질대사 변화에 관한 분석

장영금(Young Kum Chang),임식(Sik Lim) 한국사회체육학회 2001 한국사회체육학회지 Vol.16 No.-

The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of regular exercise on the change of lipids. Three groups were organized, which included a control group, a walking group and a jogging group. The latter two groups were asked to get no extra exercise. By type of exercise, the experimental group was divided into two subgroups: walking and jogging. The mean heart rate per minute was maintained at 40%HRmax(±5%) in the walking group and at 70°%HRmax(±5%) in the jogging group. Both groups walked or run separately for 30 minutes at a regular pace. The pretest was conducted before the experiment, and posttest was implemented twice, 8 and 12 weeks after the experiment. The lipids was measured while they were relaxed. The variables to be observed were total-cholesterol, triglyceride, HDL-C and LDL-C. As a result of analyzing the collected data, the following findings were given: 1. There was no significant lipids change when they were at ease after getting incremental loading exercise. So the incremental loading exercise didn`t affect lipids change during relaxation. 2. The two types of incremental loading exercise brought a different change, to lipids 8 weeks after the groups started exercising. Especially, the jogging group showed most increase or decrease, which showed jogging, one of high-intensive exercises, was more effective. 3. Exercise 12 weeks after, it`s found that not only type of exercise but exercise term made a difference to lipids change. In both walking and jogging groups, lipids change was more significant after 12-week exercise than 8-week one. This fact suggested that higher-intensive (jogging) and longer-term(12 weeks) regular exercise was more effective. 4. The control group showed no significant difference in lipids change after getting incremental loading exercise during different terms. Therefore, it could be said that incremental loading exercise didn`t have any influence, unless it`s done on a regular basis. 5. The lipids change of the walking group was more significant after 8- and 12-week exercise than at ease, except HDL-C. This implied HDL-C could increase after walking exercise for more than 8 weeks at least. So a regular exercise with an intensity equivalent to or higher than that of walking would produce a good result. 6. For the jogging group, HDL-C also increased more significantly after 12-week exercise than after 8-week one. As a regular exercise for 12 weeks or more exerted a significant impact on lipids change, a high-intensive and long-term exercise turned out more effective. In the jogging group, there was a significant lipids decrease among pretest, 8-week after posttest, and 12-week after posttest. And there also was a significant lipids decrease, except HDL-C, between 8-week exercise and 12-week one. Accordingly, a regular exercise for 8 weeks or more at least could serve to reduce cholesterol.

NR과 SBR 가황물의 경도와 강성도에 대한 온도의 영향

진현호 ( Hyun Ho Jin ),홍창국 ( Chang Kook Hong ),조동련 ( Dong Lyun Cho ),강신영 ( Shin Young Kaang ) 한국고무학회 2007 엘라스토머 및 콤포지트 Vol.42 No.3

본 연구에서는 고무제품의 수치 안정성과 성능유지에 직접적으로 영향을 미치는 중요한 특성 중 하나인 온도변화에 따른 고무재료의 경도변화를 고찰하였다. 새롭게 제작된 International Rubber Hardness Degree(IRHD, Normal type) 경도측정 시험기를 사용하여 미충전된 NR과 SBR시편의 여러 온도에서 경도변화를 측정하였으며 Young`s modulus 값과 비교하였다. NR과 SBR 모두 유리전이온도 근처에서 경도와 Young`s modulus의 급격한 변화를 보였다. 온도가 증가함에 따라 경도와 Young`s modulus 값이 증가하는 경향을 보였으며 이는 분자의 운동성과 엔트로피 영향으로 해석할 수 있다. 카본블랙과 실리카가 충전된 NR과 SBR의 경우 충전제의 함량이 증가함에 따라 경도에 미치는 온도의 영향이 감소함을 관찰하였다. Hardness of rubbery materials, which is important for dimensional stability and product performance, was investigated upon temperature change in this study. A newly developed IRHD (International Rubber Hardness Degree) tester was used to measure the hardness changes of NR and SBR specimens at various temperatures and the hardness values were compared with the Young`s modulus. The hardness and Young`s modulus of NR and SBR showed an abrupt change near the glass transition temperatures. The hardness and Young`s modulus were increased by increasing temperature due to the increased random chain conformation of molecules. The effect of temperature on hardness and Young`s modulus of NR and SBR specimens filled with carbon black and silica was decreased by increasing filler content.

급성 췌장염의 시대적 변화

김배영(Bai Young Kim),김효종(Hyo Jong Kim),정형근(Hyung Keun Chung),김영관(Young Kwan Kim),동석호(Seok Ho Dong),김병호(Byung Ho Kim),이정일(Jung Il Lee),장영운(Young Woon Chang),장린(Rin Chang) 대한내과학회 1993 대한내과학회지 Vol.45 No.5

N/A Background: According to the rapid changes in social environment such as increasing alcohol consumption and the marked improvement in diagnostic technique, we expect that there have been major changes in various aspects of acute pancreatitis during the recent 12 years in Korea. Methods: The medical records of 317 patients with acute pancreatitis diagnosed from 1980 through 1992 were reviewed about clinical, laboratory and radiological findings in the three different time period. Results: 1) There has been an increasing incidence in male sex about three folds. 2) There has been an increasing trends in the duration of hospitalization. 3) A significant increase was observed in the proportion of patients with alcoholic pancreatitis in the three different time period; 26.9%, 45.7%, 50.7% respectively. 4) The complication rates have been slightly increased in the three different time period; 46.3%, 47.1%, 59.1% respectively. But, the type of complications has not been changed. 5) There is increasing severity in non-gallstone group, but no significant differences in gallstone group. There is a declining trends in the number of patients with muld severity index, but increasing trend in the number of patients with moderate severity index in non-gallstone group. 6) There was no significant differences in mortality rate. Conclusions: There has been major changes in the etiology ans severity of acute pancreatitis from 1980 through 1992. Especially, significant increase in the proportion of patients with alcoholic pancreatitis was observed in the three differnt time period. These results might be due to socioeconomic changes.